Race of The Day Monday October 01
19:151 mile (1600m)

32Red Casino EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Div II)

Kempton (AW)

  • Current Favourite  Knowing
  • Current Odds 2/1
Race Analysis Runners 9 Going Standard to Slow - Polytrack Distance 1 mile (1600m)

Race Overview

On a very moderate day’s racing in Britain with a definite end-of-season feel to it, this mile maiden contest is one of the more interesting events, Some nicely bred youngsters, including a number of debutants, are seeking to lay down a marker prior to the start of the 2019 campaign and show some ability at this modest level.

A  number of good yard’s are represented in this contest and the pre-race market should be very informative with regard to those who make their racecourse debut at this relatively late stage of the campaign.

 

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Racehorse trainer James Fanshawe

Favourite Knowing

James Fanshawe (pictured) saddles Knowing, a Pour Moi colt who ran with plenty of promise last month on his debut at Lingfield, finishing an eyecatching third and doing his best work late on in the contest. He should have more idea today of what is expected of him on the racectrack.

Britian's winningmost racehorse trainer, Mark Johnston

Other Contenders

The newcomers look the most likely dangers to the anticipated favourite with Al Thoorayah, trained by Mark Johnston (pictured) the most expensive purchase. Thorny Time and Times Past are other interesting debutants while some improvement can be anticipated form such as El Picador and James Park Woods.

Race Analysis

KNOWING sets the standard here on the basis of his one and only run so far at Lingfield a month ago where he shaped like a ready made winner-in-waiting , staying on steadily inside the final furlong to finish third of 13 runners behind Fragrant Belle. This son of Derby winner Pour Moi holds an entry in the blue riband Classic of 2019, and while that is almost certainly flying too high, he should be up to winning in this grade sooner rather than later.

The question is whether or not his promising debut effort is worth a great deal with the race not looking to be one of the strongest races of its type at Lingfield? The form hasn’t been tested to any great extent but there have been no good efforts from those who finished around Knowing, meaning he may be vulnerable to a newcomer with even slightly above-average ability. It is a bit of a quandary, but he should go very well and can score, as long as there isn’t something really decent lurking in the wings.

The market should guide as to the merits of the three interesting newcomers. Mark Johnston’s Al Thoorayah was the most expensive purchase at $220,000. He has a proper dirt pedigree being by Arch out of a winning 6f US juvenile, so he may be sharp enough to trouble Knowing if ready to roll. Johnston is a past master at preparing his horses particularly well for debut so any confidence in the betting ring would be a sign well worth noting.

Archie Watson is having fantastic season with his juveniles and a number have won on debut. He has plenty of good youngsters against which to test his Dandy Man colt Times Past, a half-brother to four individual winners in Britain over a variety of distances. Watson has a 26% winning strike-rate at Kempton since taking out a licence just three years ago, and has already had 17 winners at this track.

The other newcomer is David Lanigan’s Thorny Time. For a Galileo colt, out of a Group-placed mare who is closely related to the high-class Group 1 winner Aussie Rules, he cost a relatively modest $75,000 at last year’s Keeneland Yearling Sales, which tends to set alarm bells ringing. Who knows though, maybe this is the one that slipped through the net of the big investors and he is a genuine bargain buy?

Lanigan hasn’t had many runners of late but is 2-5 over the last fortnight indicating his horses are in form, and he has a near-20% winning strike-rate at this track. Like the other two debutants he is well worth monitoring for any market confidence.

Sir Michael Stoute’s twice-raced Dansili colt El Picador has been fairly disappointing in finishing eighth in both start so far over seven furlongs but may improve a little for this extra furlong. His future appears to lie in handicaps though on the evidence to date, but there could be something a bit better to come from Ralph Beckett’s James Park Woods, who chased the leaders for a good way at Doncaster on debut before fading quite quickly. It is noted that he wears a first time tongue-tie, suggesting he may have had a breathing issue that day .

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Betting.net Selection

Knowing
2/1
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Betting.net Danger

Times Past
8/1

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Paul Alster Betting.net

Written by Paul Alster

Paul Alster has been part of the British and international racing media for more than three decades working as a race commentator, TV/radio presenter, journalist, betting correspondent, SP returner, and form analyst. He’s always sought out overpriced runners in handicap races, a quest that excites him as much now as it did at the start of his career.