Race of The Day Tuesday July 31
15:007 furlongs (1400m)

Qatar Lennox Stakes (Group 2)

Goodwood

  • Current Favourite  Tip Two Win
  • Current Odds 9/2
Race Analysis Runners 12 Going Good (Good to Firm in places) Distance 7 furlongs (1400m)

Race Overview

With the feature Group 1 Qatar Goodwood Cup covered at some length in our ante-post preview – click here – I’ve decided to focus my gaze on an intriguing renewal of the Group 2 Qatar Lennox Stakes run over seven furlongs and open to three year olds an upwards.

This £300,000 contest has attracted a fine field, including a number with Group 1 form this season. Last year’s shock 50/1 scorer Bretton Rock is back for more, and this term’s 2000 Guineas runner-up Tip Two Win is sure to be a leading fancy. Since its inception in the year 2000, the Lennox Stakes has been won by some very good horses, including Observatory, Fath, Nayyir, Iffraaj, Paco Boy and Strong Suit.   

 

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Horse racing - Roger Fell

Favourite Tip Two Win

Tip Two Win has really flown the flag this season for the small Roger Teal stable, winning two good prizes in Dubai during the winter then excelling himself in finishing second to Saxon Warrior in the 2000 Guineas. Last time out, he was a staying-on fourth in the Group 1 St James’s Place Stakes.

Horse racing Daniel Tudhope and David O'Meara

Other Contenders

The Group 3 Criterion Stakes 1-2 Sir Dancealot and So Beloved do battle again, last year’s shock winner Bretton Rock bids to spring another surprise, the classy Suedois, (trained by David O’Meara and ridden by Dannny Tudhope (pictured), as well as the Godolphin pair of Dbai and Dutch Connection, and the improving and unexposed Emmaus, will all have their supporters in an open renewal.

Race Analysis

Tip Two Win is the only three-year-old in the field but he could prove the one they all have to beat if returning to the form that saw him finished second to Saxon Warrior in the 2000 Guineas. Behind him that day were the subsequent Investec Derby winner Masar, Eclipse Stakes winner Roaring Lion, and the runaway Jersey Stakes winner Expert Eye, among others. He was fancied to go well in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot but  was two far out of his ground for the first half of the race and had to be used early to close on the leaders before the home turn.

While he stayed on all the way to finish fourth behind Without Parole, that effort at the wrong stage of the race surely took its toll. David Probert rides again and surely won’t make the same mistake twice, so while the trip is plenty sharp enough this talented Dark Angel colt should go very well.

David Elsworth’s Sir Dancealot and Aidan O’Brien’s Spirit of Valor finished fourth and eighth respectively behind US Navy Flag over six furlongs last time out in the Group 1 July Cup at HQ. Of this pair, the former is the more appealing back up in trip at this level and should go well having previously edged out So Beloved, another set to take his chance in this fine race.

David O’Meara, who also saddles So Beloved, has had a stack of winns over the last fortnight and his Suedois is always worth a second glance in this type of race and was a very close third at big odds 12 months ago. Suedois wouldn’t want any rain as can really handle real fast ground well as he showed when winning in Grade 1 company in the US over this trip last October. He was a very close third to Beat The Bank recently in the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot and is very much respected.

Last year’s winner Bretton Rock hasn’t been in great form so far this campaign and despite this return to his happiest hunting ground he is hard to recommend, and it’s a similar story for last year’s shock Group 1 Sussex Stakes hero Here Comes When, for whom any easing of the ground would be a bonus as the softer the ground, the better he runs.

Emmaus has had only four runs in his career and Roger Varian’s charge is clearly well thought of. He beat another of today’s runners, Donjuan Triumphant, in heavy ground in listed company at Haydock in April but hasn’t been seen since, presumably because of the lack of easy ground. Unless he too encounters give in the ground it’s hard to see him being good enough at this level. Godolphin’s Group 3 John of Gaunt Stakes winner D’bai also needs to find a few pounds improvement, but that is not ruled out as he has a generally progressive profile and probably found the six furlongs of the Group 1 July Cup too sharp for him last time.

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Betting.net Selection

Tip Two Win
9/2
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Betting.net Danger

Suedois
13/2

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Paul Alster Betting.net

Written by Paul Alster

Paul Alster has been part of the British and international racing media for more than three decades working as a race commentator, TV/radio presenter, journalist, betting correspondent, SP returner, and form analyst. He’s always sought out overpriced runners in handicap races, a quest that excites him as much now as it did at the start of his career.