The Den

30/01/2018 | 7:45 pm

Derby County


The Den

30/01/2018 | 7:45 pm

In a sentence:  High-flying Derby County set their sights on chasing down Wolves at the top of the table as Millwall face a dilemma with an FA Cup replay at the back of their minds likely to take its toll.

Last time: Derby came back from 2-0 down and then 3-1 to draw the game 3-3 on their last visit to the Den in April 2015, thanks to an 85th minute equaliser from Jeff Hendrick which sent the Rams back up the M1 clutching their lucky charms.

This time: Millwall are 13/8 to win with Derby at 19/10 and the draw 23/10

You might remember: Millwall’s Championship season had gotten off to a less than impressive start during the 2013/14 season as Derby came to town and put five past the Lions to just the solitary reply in September of 2013. A Craig Bryson hattrick for the Rams was the standout performance in a comfortable away win.

Team News

Betting Tips & Predictions

Neil Harris’ Millwall are unbeaten at home since early November

Two sides with two very different agendas meet at the Den with promotion chasing Derby looking to strengthen their foothold in the second automatic promotion place and keep the pressure firmly on league leaders Wolves. With an FA Cup replay at the back of their mind and enough points in the league to keep them relatively free from danger, the host side may use this as an opportunity to rotate the squad with progression in the FA Cup surely more of a priority.

Millwall are 13/8 to win and for a home side that is a great price. Especially when you consider they have won half of all their home games this season. In fact, the Lions have picked up more points at home this season than the rampaging Fulham and that can only add value to an already tempting price.

Derby are 19/10 to win and former Birmingham manager Gary Rowett has gotten his Rams side all singing to the same tune. For a few years now, Derby have been threatening to get back to the big time and this season their impressive away form could be the key driver that gets them over that line. Only Wolves have picked up more road points this season than Derby and recent away wins over Birmingham and Ipswich only go to back Derby up to sneak away with another road maximum.

The draw is 23/10 which appears to be a common theme in the Championship this week. Tuesday night games are rarely big scoring encounters however the pair have drawn two of their last three meetings including that entertaining 3-3 draw the last time the duo met at the Den.

Derby to win by just the one goal margin is 7/2 and there can be few doubts that the Rams possess the stronger squad who enjoy playing away. However, Millwall are no fools on their own patch and are rarely ever out of sight at the Den. That 2013 5-1 hammering aside, the Lions have never lost to Derby at home by more than one goal since before 1989 meaning a tight game is set to ensue with Derby’s quality eventually shining through.

Over 2.5 goals is 11/10 and when you consider the last two meetings between the sides has yielded nine goals, it is not hard to see why that offers significant value. Derby have also scored the third highest amount of goals all season with 44 and Millwall have scored six in their last two matches in all competitions.

Match Summary


Look out for:

A sluggish starting Millwall. A 2-2 draw with Rochdale in the FA Cup at the weekend was hardly inspiring and then meeting a refreshed Derby just a few days later only adds to the likelihood that the Lions will need time to steady the ship.

Derby to lead at half time is 5/2 and considering Gary Rowett’s side have not played since Friday 19th January, they will be eager to get the action going quickly.


We fancy:

Derby to be the first team to score is at 6/5 and for the reasons highlighted above, that looks a great value bet to take.

The Rams fully fit squad means star man Matej Vydra will be keen to quickly add to his 15 goals already this season and catch a sleepy Millwall out early doors.


It’s a long shot, but:

A repeat of that entertaining 2015 3-3 draw is at 50/1 and although we fancy Derby to get the job done, Millwall are enjoying an upturn in form of late.

The draw would probably keep Lions fans happy and with Derby’s impressive away form and Millwall’s better than average home form, it is not beyond the realms of possibility we could be in for an epic encounter.

Written by Ian Waterhouse

Ian Waterhouse is a sports, fitness and betting writer with extensive experience in all sectors of the gambling industry. When he’s not trawling through the odds, you’ll probably find Ian on the golf course – probably the bunker!