Millwall

V

The Den

10/03/2018 | 3:00 pm

Brentford

V

The Den

10/03/2018 | 3:00 pm

In a sentence: A London derby between two teams who are separated in the Championship table by a single point.

Last time: Brentford won 3-2 in 2014. Millwall fought back to equalise after an Andre Gray brace had put the visitors two goals up, but a Danny Shittu own goal proved decisive.

This time: Millwall are 7/4 to win with Brentford at 13/8 and the draw 5/2.

You might remember: Millwall’s last home win over Brentford, in 2001. A certain Tim Cahill scored the goal in a 1-0 win for the Lions.

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Betting Tips & Predictions

The Millwall faithful haven’t seen their side lose at home since November

This match could be very close, as these teams are side-by-side in the Championship table and they are both in decent form. Home advantage understandably makes Millwall favourites, but this could easily go either way.

Millwall are 7/4 to win, and they are currently on a ten game unbeaten run in the league. The Lions have won four of their last six, and may yet make a late dash to reach the play-offs.

Brentford can be backed at 13/8, and they won away at Burton on Tuesday. The Bees have alternated between winning and losing for their last nine away matches in the league, so are a very tough team to predict.

The draw is available at 5/2. Preston are the only team in the division who have drawn more matches than Millwall, and with these sides so closely matched overall this season, a stalemate could easily be the outcome here.

Lee Gregory is priced at 6/1 to open the scoring, or 21/10 to bag a goal at any time. Six of his eight league goals have come at the The Den in 2017/18, and Gregory has netted three times in his last ten appearances.

Ollie Watkins is 13/4 to score at some point, or 8/1 to break the deadlock with the first goal. The attacking midfielder has scored three goals in his last three appearances, and has got 10 in total in the Championship this season.

Match Summary

1

Look out for:

A low card count. Only Aston Villa and Burton Albion have received fewer yellow cards than Brentford have this season, and the last six meetings of these teams have only produced an average of three bookings per match.

2

We fancy:

Under 2.5 goals, at 10/11. Millwall have played just 16 league games with at least three goals in 2017/18, which is the joint-fourth fewest in the Championship. Only one of the last six league matches at The Den has seen over 2.5 goals, so expect a low scoring match on Saturday.

3

It’s a long shot, but:

Brentford to win 3-2, at 30/1. The Bees’ last win at Millwall came by this scoreline, and only three sides in the division have scored three-or-more goals more times than Brentford have this season.

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Written by Andrew Beasley

Andrew Beasley is a self-confessed stats nerd who tries to use facts and figures to his advantage when it comes to betting. Andrew is also a musician and a Liverpool fan who loves Mohamed Salah more by the game.