Manchester United vs Derby County Betting Tips, Preview & Predictions
In a sentence: Even a much changed Manchester United side should find the visit of Championship Derby County to be a walk in the park.
Last time: The teams last met in the fourth round of the FA Cup in 2016. United ran out 3-1 winners at Pride Park, with goals from Rooney, Blind and Mata.
This time: Manchester United are 3/10 to win with Derby at 12/1 and the draw 26/5.
You might remember: United winning 4-2 in the last meeting at Old Trafford in the second leg of the 2009 League Cup semi-final. Nani, John O’Shea, Carlos Tevez and Cristiano Ronaldo were the scorers for the home side.
Manchester United’s last six: Won: 2 Drawn: 3 Lost: 1
The Red Devils have a long injury list, but Jose Mourinho will still make plenty of changes for this one. The likes of Sergio Romero, Daley Blind and Henrikh Mkhitaryan are all expected to come in to face Derby.
Derby County’s last six: Won: 4 Drawn: 2 Lost: 0
Derby’s only absentee is likely to be Joe Ledley. The question is whether the team currently second in the Championship will look to rest players as promotion will be their ultimate goal this season.
Betting Tips & Predictions
Whilst United will understandably be expected to win this match at a canter, it does at least pit together two teams who are in the top three of their respective divisions. Derby County know how to win matches, and should provide a reasonably stern test for a patched up and rotated United team.
Manchester United are 3/10 to win it, and it would be a surprise if they do not advance to round four on Friday night. Their team will see numerous changes, but when the players coming in are £30m internationals, they should still have too much for a Championship team.
Derby County are 12/1 for a famous win, and whilst it would be a shock, it shouldn’t be entirely ruled out. A lot will depend on how strong a team Gary Rowett puts out. They will certainly take heart from Bristol City’s recent Carabao Cup home win over United, though of course at Old Trafford the task is far tougher.
The draw is 26/5 and it could prove to be a frustrating night for United. The Rams have conceded the second fewest goals in the Championship, so they might just be able to keep a disjointed United at bay and earn a replay.
Anthony Martial is 13/11 to score anytime, or 37/10 to break the deadlock with the first goal. Despite relatively limited time on the pitch, the France international has still scored nine goals this season. He opened the scoring at Everton last time out, and scored in United’s one other domestic cup match at home this season too.
David Nugent is 14/1 to score the game’s first goal, or 51/10 to score at any point. The veteran striker has Premier League experience, and scored in Leicester’s memorable 5-3 win over United in 2014. He also scored in his only England appearance, so might he be the man for the big occasion?
Predicted Score: Manchester United 2 - 0 Derby
Look out for:
Under 2.5 goals, at 23/20. Few Premier League teams feature in fewer games with at least three goals than Manchester United do. Their patched up and rotated team is unlikely to run riot against one of the Championship’s best defences either.
Manchester United to win to nil at 37/40. Derby’s main focus will be defending, so it’s hard to see them scoring. Assuming United have enough to break the deadlock then Mourinho’s negative mind-set should see them home whilst keeping a clean sheet.
It’s a long shot, but:
Derby to win 1-0, at 28/1. United have recent experience of losing to a Championship side, so may be nervous, and will start a rotated XI too. Gary Rowett’s team have conceded less than one goal per league game this season, so why can’t they get a clean sheet and a famous win at Old Trafford?
Written by Andrew Beasley
Andrew Beasley is a self-confessed stats nerd who tries to use facts and figures to his advantage when it comes to betting. Andrew is also a musician and a Liverpool fan who loves Mohamed Salah more by the game.