Manchester City

V

Etihad Stadium

02/01/2018 | 8:00 pm

Watford

V

Etihad Stadium

02/01/2018 | 8:00 pm

In a sentence: Is there any hope for Watford against Premier League leaders Manchester City in this one? Probably not.

Last time: A 2-0 win for Manchester City in December 2016, thanks to goals from Pablo Zabaleta and David Silva. There have been two meetings at Vicarage Road since, which Watford would rather forget: City won them 5-0 and 6-0.

This time: Manchester City are 1/8 to win with Watford at 33/1 and the draw 10/1.

You might remember: Watford’s last win at Manchester City, in 1987. Some fella named Tim Sherwood played for them that day.

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Betting Tips & Predictions

It’s hard to see any team getting much from a trip to the Etihad Stadium these days. Watford do at least have one of the better away records in the Premier League this season, but it would be a massive surprise if they came out on top in this one.

Manchester City are 1/8 to win it, and with their form it’s a surprise their price isn’t even shorter. Pep Guardiola’s team have won nine of their ten home league games this season, scoring 36 goals in the process. At the half way stage of 2017/18, only two teams had scored more than that in total. City are an unstoppable force, and they will surely triumph here.

Watford are 33/1 and it’s hard to know what to say beyond that. What makes that price even more remarkable is that they have one of the better away records in the division. The Hornets have won four times on the road this season, and had the chances to win in games they lost at Chelsea and Everton. But they can’t win here, can they?

The draw is 10/1 but it’s hard to make a case that it will be how the match pans out. No team has drawn fewer home games than City, and they’re the only team who have drawn fewer away matches than Watford. City have conceded in four of their last six home games, so if they do so again then it’s not impossible that the visitors can claim a point. It has to be unlikely though.

Sergio Aguero is 12/5 to open the scoring, or 4/9 to score at any time. Considering his record against Watford, the 19/10 price for him to score at least two shouldn’t be ignored either. City’s record goalscorer has scored nine goals in just five games against Watford, including five in the last two meetings.

Richarlison is 3/1 to score anytime, and if any Watford player is going to, then it will surely be the young Brazilian. He is their top scorer on the road, and is their only player with more than one assist away from Vicarage Road too, so he is usually in the thick of the action.

Match Summary

1

Look out for:

Over 3.5 goals, at 10/11. Only five teams have played more matches with at least four goals than Watford have since the start of last season. One of those is Manchester City, who are joint-top of that particular tree. City are more than capable of running riot in this match, and Watford carry a reasonable away goal threat too.

2

We fancy:

Manchester City to win by three or more goals at 8/11. Guardiola’s team have done this in three of their last six home games, and with Watford stricken with multiple injuries, it looks a likely outcome in this match.

 

 

3

It’s a long shot, but:

Richarlison to score two goals at 25/1. The Brazilian’s expected goals figures suggest he has scored two fewer goals than he should have. Only a handful of players have scored more away goals this season too, so if the stars align then Richarlison might just bag a brace.

 

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Written by Andrew Beasley

Andrew Beasley is a self-confessed stats nerd who tries to use facts and figures to his advantage when it comes to betting. Andrew is also a musician and a Liverpool fan who loves Mohamed Salah more by the game.