Home Manchester City

20/01/2018 Kick Off:  5:30 pm City of Manchester V Predicted Score:3 - 0

Away Newcastle United

Match Summary

1 Look out for:

The goal count. Manchester City have featured in the most games that have seen at least four goals since the beginning of last season. This has occurred in four of their last six league games at home, and the other two featured three goals. A bet on over 3.5 goals, at 9/10, looks a sensible option.

2 We fancy:

Manchester City to win to nil, at 37/40. It’s almost impossible to envisage any other outcome. City have scored 39 goals at home this season, which is almost double the 21 that Newcastle have scored in total. Guardiola’s boys have only conceded eight in their 11 home league games too, so with Benitez likely to play conservatively, this looks a great bet.

3 It's a long shot, but…

Newcastle to win 1-0, at 75/1. It’s only 25/1 that City win 6-0, which shows how unlikely a Newcastle victory is. But Rafa Benitez is a master tactician, and his side largely kept the Citizens at bay when they met at St James Park in December. Perhaps the Magpies can deliver one of the shocks of the season?

Team News

Manchester City's Last Six:

Manchester City’s last six: Won: 4 Drawn: 1 Lost: 1

Fabian Delph is the latest player to join City’s injury list, after he went off in their 4-3 defeat at Liverpool last weekend. Gabriel Jesus and Benjamin Mendy remain on the treatment table too.

Newcastle United's Last Six:

Newcastle United’s last six: Won: 3 Drawn: 2 Lost: 1

Dwight Gayle is a slight doubt for this after picking up a knock in the Magpies’ 1-1 draw with Swansea. Mitrovic and Mbemba may be fit for this match, but Florian Lejeune will be out for a while longer yet.

Manchester City vs Newcastle United Betting Tips, Preview & Predictions

Sergio Aguero will lead Manchester City’s line as Pep Guardiola’s team look to get back to winning ways

Pep Guardiola’s team are still comfortably clear at the top of the Premier League, but they will want to win this match to ensure one defeat doesn’t become a full blown crisis. Newcastle remain clear of the drop zone, and whilst they won’t expect to claim any points here, it would be a massive boost to their confidence if they did.

Manchester City are 1/8 to win this match, and it would be one of the shocks of the season if they did not. They have dropped points in just three of their 23 league matches so far, and in only one of 11 at home. How many goals they’ll win by feels like more of an issue than whether they will win or not.

Newcastle are 25/1 to head home with all three points, which is one of the longest prices you will ever see in a league match. The Magpies actually have the tenth best away record in the Premier League at the moment, though the Etihad is obviously a far tougher place to win than Swansea, West Ham and Stoke, where Newcastle have triumphed this season.

The draw is 10/1 and seems well priced as these teams do not draw many matches. City have had just one stalemate at home in the league in 2017/18, and Newcastle just two on the road. Rafa Benitez’ team did nearly sneak a draw when these sides met last month though, so perhaps it’s not as unlikely a result as it seems.

Sergio Aguero is 23/10 to score the first goal, and he will be licking his lips at the prospect of playing Newcastle. City’s record scorer has bagged 11 goals in 11 games against them, and he hasn’t netted more against any other team in his career. He is 7/17 to score at any time, and the 5/2 for him to score two-or-more is worth considering too.

Joselu is 14/1 to open the scoring, and with injury doubts surrounding Newcastle’s other strikers, he probably is their most likely goal threat here. The Spaniard is the Magpies’ top scorer, with four league goals, and scored last weekend against Swansea. He can be backed at 4/1 to score at any point during the match.

Predicted Score: Manchester City 3 - 0 Newcastle United

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Written by Andrew Beasley

Andrew Beasley is a self-confessed stats nerd who tries to use facts and figures to his advantage when it comes to betting. Andrew is also a musician and a Liverpool fan who loves Mohamed Salah more by the game.