Burton Albion

V

Pirelli Stadium

17/02/2018 | 3:00 pm

Nottingham Forest

V

Pirelli Stadium

17/02/2018 | 3:00 pm

In a sentence: The Championship’s bottom side, Burton Albion, host 16th placed Nottingham Forest in what is a must win game for the Brewers.

Last time: Forest were comfortable 2-0 winners when the two sides met at the City Ground back in October in the Championship.

This time: Forest start as favourites at 9/5 away from home, with the draw at 23/10 and Burton at the same price for the win (23/10)

You might remember: The first time these two sides had ever met in a competitive fixture was last season and Forest were 4-3 victors in the home match with a brace from now Middlesbrough striker Britt Assombalonga.

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Betting Tips & Predictions

Burton Albion are bottom of the Championship but not cut adrift

Burton Albion are just four points off safety but still sit in 24th position in the league table. A home game against the struggling Nottingham Forest provides a real opportunity to take a big step towards survival, whilst Forest are in desperate need of points if they are to avoid being dragged in to a relegation battle.

Forest do start as favourites at 9/5 away from home but four defeats in a row makes this a very interesting game down at the bottom of the league. Karanka’s men have not scored a goal in four games in the league and their two goals in their win over leaders Wolves are the only two they have scored in their last eight Championship games.

As for the home side, Burton have won just two games at the Pirelli Stadium this campaign, the last coming all the way back in September, in a 2-1 win over Fulham. Burton’s last win in all competitions was back on New Years day against Sheffield Wednesday and their draw against Ipswich last weekend ended a run of four consecutive league defeats.

As for a betting angle, this game is very difficult to call. Matches between two sides out of form can produce anything from a 0-0 to a 5-4 so you can only really go on form for this one. Given how bad Burton’s home form is, Forest at 9/5 look very generous, especially as Burton have not won in about six weeks. However, Forest have really struggled to score goals as already mentioned but given they beat Wolves away from home and kept a clean sheet, there is potential in this side.

Seven of Forest’s last nine have seen under 2.5 but four of Burton’s last five have seen over 2.5 and BTTS so difficult to call which way this one will go in terms of goals. Karanka’s men can ill afford to lose this game and will want to stop the run of defeats, so a draw could be a decent result and at 23/10, the price looks good. Burton are also in need of points, so a draw would not be the end of the world for them either.

Match Summary

1

Look out for:

The draw at 23/10 looks good value given the extremely poor form of these two sides recently. Neither will want to lose the game, so could be a tight affair.

2

We fancy:

At 9/5, it is hard to look past Forest, given that, on their day, they are good enough to beat a lot of teams. Against the bottom side in the league and a side who haven’t won a home game since September, it is hard to not back the away side here.

3

It’s a long shot, but:

Forest to win, BTTS at 11/2 could be a way to go here at a slightly higher price. Burton seem to be involved in BTTS games at home and Forest should have a little bit too much for Burton on the day.

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Written by Marcello Cossali-Francis

Marcello Cossali-Francis considers sport, particularly football and rugby, to be an essential part of life. A half-Italian half-Welsh Liverpool and Juventus fan, Marcello enjoys every high and every low that sport brings.