Brighton

V

Amex

08/01/2018 | 7:45 pm

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace

V

Amex

08/01/2018 | 7:45 pm

In a sentence: The most important FA Cup derby that isn’t in Merseyside this weekend.

Last time: The teams played out a dour 0-0 draw in November. With just ten shots apiece it wasn’t a feast of attacking football, and this match could be very similar.

This time: Brighton are 25/14 to win with Crystal Palace at 9/5 and the draw 16/7.

You might remember: Palace’s 2-0 win at Brighton in the last meeting prior to this season, in 2013. If you’re a Seagulls fan, you probably remember your team’s 3-0 win earlier that year.

Team News

Betting Tips & Predictions

Crystal Palace’s Christian Benteke during the Premier League match at Selhurst Park, London.

It’s hard to see the two managers making too many changes with derby pride on the line in this match. Both are too close to the bottom of the table for comfort though, so may hold a few players back for their league matches next weekend. Whoever wins this one will take a big morale boost from it.

Brighton are 6/4 to win it, and with home advantage are deserved favourites to prevail. The Seagulls have only lost two of their league matches at the Amex Stadium this season, and those were against Manchester City and Liverpool. They would love nothing more than knocking their fierce rivals out of the FA Cup.

Crystal Palace are 2/1 but will fancy their chances of a victory as their recent away form includes an impressive win at Leicester, as well as draws at Brighton, West Brom and Swansea. After eight league away games without a goal, Palace have finally started scoring on the road, and may be able to hold a low-scoring Seagulls team at bay.

The draw is 13/5, and looks a likely outcome based on the form guide. Brighton have drawn four of their last six at home, including their last meeting with Palace, and only West Brom have tied more home matches this season. The visitors have had several stalemates away from home recently, so the two sides could easily cancel each other out.

Glenn Murray is 5/1 to score the first goal, or 2/1 to net at any time during the match. The striker has played for both sides during his nomadic career, and is Brighton’s top scorer in the league with six goals this season. He also scored last time out, in the 2-2 draw with Bournemouth.

Christian Benteke is 9/4 to score anytime, or 11/2 to break the deadlock with the opening goal of the game. The big Belgian recently broke his duck for the season, and based on the chances he has had in 2017/18 he’s due to score more goals sooner rather than later.

Match Summary

1

Look out for:

The card count. In the last six meetings, Brighton have picked up 15 yellow cards and one red. Palace are in the Premier League’s worst five teams for cards this season. Add in the fact it’s obviously a derby and there is every chance that the referee will have to brandish quite a few cards in this one.

2

We fancy:

A bet on ‘no’ for both teams to score, at 37/40. Both teams have only scored in seven of Brighton’s league matches this season, which is the joint-fewest in the division. With Palace only just ahead of them on that front, then goals are likely to be at a premium in a tight game between two defensive sides. This outcome has happened in the last five meetings too.

3

It’s a long shot, but:

Brighton to win 3-0, at 33/1. The Seagulls are not a big scoring team, but Roy Hodgson is the more likely of the two managers to shuffle his pack, so if Brighton score first then it could turn ugly for a disjointed Palace side.

Written by Andrew Beasley

Andrew Beasley is a self-confessed stats nerd who tries to use facts and figures to his advantage when it comes to betting. Andrew is also a musician and a Liverpool fan who loves Mohamed Salah more by the game.