Brighton

V

Falmer Stadium

01/01/2018 | 12:30 pm

Bournemouth

V

Falmer Stadium

01/01/2018 | 12:30 pm

In a sentence: Is Brighton vs. Bournemouth on TV because it’s a south coast derby? Not really, but both teams could certainly do with the points, so it’s a big match in that sense.

Last time: They last met at Brighton in the Championship three years ago. Bournemouth won that day, and they’ve won the two subsequent meetings on their patch too.

This time: Brighton are 19/13 to win with Bournemouth at 29/12 and the draw 9/4.

You might remember: An entertaining match in 2014 in which Bournemouth lead three times and finally won 3-2 after benefitting from an own goal and a penalty.

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Betting Tips & Predictions

Callum Wilson, AFC Bournemouth

Neither side is in great form at the moment, and could desperately do with a win. Both teams will have targeted this as a match where they need to get something. Will that make for a tight, tense encounter, or might an early goal see bedlam break loose? Hopefully the latter, and both teams have been conceding lots of goals recently.

Brighton are 19/13 to win it, a victory that would keep them out of the relegation zone for a while longer. They have only lost twice at home this season, against Manchester City and Liverpool, and have been beaten in just one of their last six on the south coast. A 1-0 win against Watford in their last home match should provide them with some confidence for this one.

Bournemouth are 29/12 and their recent form on the road is pretty decent. The Cherries have recorded two wins, two draws, and two unsurprising defeats in Manchester in their last six away matches. They did concede four goals at City, but had only conceded four goals across their previous five away matches prior to that, so they should have a firm foundation at the back.

The draw is 9/4 and neither side would be too disheartened by putting another point on the board. Only West Brom have drawn more home games than Brighton this season, and Bournemouth’s five away matches prior to Manchester City saw a total of just nine goals. A close encounter is probably on the cards, so betting on a draw could be the way to go.

Pascal Gross is 5/2 to score anytime and he’s been the man to watch at the Amex stadium this season. Brighton have scored ten league goals at home in 2017/18, and Gross has either scored or assisted seven of them. He’s usually in the thick of the action, and can be backed at 13/2 to open the scoring.

Callum Wilson is 5/1 to score first, or 21/10 to net at any time. He’s had a tough few years with injury, but he is the Cherries’ top league scorer and will have taken confidence from his recent last gasp equaliser against West Ham.

Match Summary

1

Look out for:

A low card count. These two sides seemingly get along fine, as there have only been a total of 15 yellow cards and no reds across the last six meetings. Over half of these came in one match (a 3-2 Bournemouth win in 2014), and in the league meeting earlier this season there wasn’t a single booking.

2

We fancy:

Brighton to win to nil at 11/4. Bournemouth have only scored six away league goals all season, and with Jermain Defoe out it wouldn’t take much for them to draw a blank here. The Seagulls aren’t full of goals themselves, but home advantage counts for a lot and they can nick a tight game.

 

3

It’s a long shot, but:

Brighton to win 3-0 at 28/1. Bournemouth have conceded 13 goals in their last four matches, so aren’t in great form defensively. Three of those four games were against top six sides, but if the Seagulls score early then the Amex will be rocking and they might put on a show to get 2018 underway in style.

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Written by Andrew Beasley

Andrew Beasley is a self-confessed stats nerd who tries to use facts and figures to his advantage when it comes to betting. Andrew is also a musician and a Liverpool fan who loves Mohamed Salah more by the game.