Best Earthquake Prediction Market Sites and Apps 2026: Trade on Magnitude, Region and Annual Counts
Mike Goodpaster Last Verified
16/07/2026
Earthquake prediction markets let you trade on whether a significant seismic event will occur in a specific region, how many large earthquakes will happen globally in a given year, and whether a major fault zone will produce a damaging quake within a defined timeframe. Unlike hurricane or tornado markets that follow a seasonal rhythm, earthquake markets run year-round and respond to a continuous stream of seismic monitoring data from USGS and global earthquake networks.
This page covers the best sites for earthquake prediction markets, the different contract types available, how they settle, what drives prices, and the real-world hedging use case unique to earthquake markets.
Best Sites for Earthquake Prediction Markets
Polymarket leads on earthquake market volume with active annual count contracts and regional magnitude threshold questions. Kalshi carries earthquake markets as part of its natural disasters category, with regional contracts particularly sensitive to USGS updates and seismic activity data.
| Prediction market site | Welcome offer | Earthquake coverage | Funding |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Deposit $20 get $50 | Annual global count contracts, regional magnitude thresholds, mega-earthquake markets | USDC (Polygon), crypto wallet required |
| Kalshi | $10 bonus | Regional earthquake markets, California fault zone contracts; USGS settlement | ACH, debit card, PayPal, Venmo, crypto |
| OG | Trade $20 get $20 | Selected natural disaster and severe event contracts | ACH, debit card, crypto |
| Crypto.com | 100% up to $250 | Selected natural event contracts within financials and climate categories | ACH, debit card, Apple Pay, Google Pay, crypto |
Polymarket
- Polymarket is live in the USA
- Easy pick-up-and-trade mechanics
- Sign-up rewards may be available
- Beginner-friendly platform
- Dynamic trading topics
- Long wait list to join
- High regulatory scrutiny
- Not all markets are available yet
Polymarket runs the deepest earthquake prediction market catalog, with active annual global count contracts asking how many earthquakes above a specific magnitude threshold will occur worldwide in a given period. The most actively traded market asks how many 7.0 or above earthquakes will be recorded globally, with the market currently assigning a 35% probability to the 14 to 16 event bracket. Polymarket also runs regional earthquake questions tied to specific fault zones and seismically active countries, as well as longer-duration mega-earthquake and catastrophic seismic event contracts. Settlement uses USGS earthquake data as the primary resolution source.
For US traders, Polymarket's earthquake and natural disaster markets are available on the international version of the platform, which requires USDC and a compatible crypto wallet. New users who deposit $20 or more receive a $50 trading bonus. The platform's global user base is relevant for earthquake markets specifically, since the Pacific Ring of Fire affects multiple countries and traders from Japan, New Zealand, Chile, and other seismically active regions bring genuine regional knowledge to these markets.
Kalshi
- Sports, politics, and crypto predictions
- Economics, culture, and climate events
- Optimized Android and iOS apps
- 2% debit card deposit fee
Kalshi carries earthquake contracts as part of its natural disasters and climate category, with particular depth in US-focused regional markets. California earthquake contracts are among the most responsive markets on the platform, described as volatile and sensitive to both USGS updates and earthquake swarms in the region, since clusters of smaller seismic events can precede larger ones and move contract prices before any major quake occurs. Kalshi's resolution source for earthquake contracts is USGS, the official US federal agency for earthquake monitoring, and every contract names the specific data source in its resolution criteria.
New users get a $10 bonus after placing $10 in trades with no promo code needed. Kalshi accepts ACH, debit card, PayPal, and Venmo with no crypto required, and is live in all 50 US states. For residents of California, the Pacific Northwest, or other seismically active regions, Kalshi's earthquake contracts also have a practical hedging dimension: buying a Yes contract on a major regional earthquake serves as a form of parametric insurance that pays out if a qualifying event occurs.
Crypto.com
- Great range of sports predictions
- Simple fee structure
- Stylish website and mobile apps
- Good trade volume for its predictions
- The app is geared towards crypto trading
- No welcome bonus
Crypto.com covers selected natural event contracts through its financials and climate categories. Earthquake-related markets appear during periods of elevated global or regional seismic activity. For users already active on Crypto.com for other trading, natural disaster contracts are accessible within the same app without a separate account setup. The dual $1 and $10 contract format provides more position sizing flexibility than single-format sites.
New users who sign up through our link receive a 100% deposit match up to $250, the largest welcome offer on this page. The Crypto.com app holds a 4.7-star rating across more than 320,000 App Store reviews and supports Apple Pay and Google Pay for deposits alongside ACH and debit card. Coverage is most active during seismically significant periods rather than as a standing year-round catalog.
OG
- Owned by Crypto.com
- Up to $150 referral bonus
- Well-designed Android and iOS app
- No culture prediction markets yet
OG covers selected natural disaster and severe event contracts including earthquake-related markets during periods of elevated seismic activity. Coverage is selective rather than systematic, but contracts can appear around major fault zone activity or in the aftermath of significant regional seismic events when community interest is highest. OG operates on the same CFTC-regulated infrastructure as Crypto.com, with ACH, debit card, and crypto accepted for deposits.
New users receive a Trade $20 get $20 welcome offer. The interface is designed for straightforward binary trading rather than specialist seismological analysis, which suits traders who want a single position based on regional earthquake risk rather than actively monitoring USGS data feeds for swarm activity and magnitude trends. Coverage is worth checking during active seismic periods when earthquake contracts are most likely to be live.
Types of Earthquake Prediction Market Contracts
Earthquake contracts divide into global count questions and regional event questions. They have meaningfully different analytical frameworks and respond to different data signals. For the broader weather and natural event category, see our hurricane prediction markets page for comparison on how other natural event contracts are structured.
Annual global earthquake count contracts
The most common earthquake market type. A question asking how many earthquakes above a specific magnitude threshold (most commonly 7.0) will be recorded globally in a defined period. These divide into numerical brackets and run similarly to tornado count contracts. Historical USGS data provides strong baseline frequency statistics: globally, there are typically 15 to 20 magnitude 7.0 or above earthquakes per year, making the bracket distribution anchored to well-understood historical averages.
Regional magnitude threshold contracts
Binary contracts asking whether a specific region will experience a qualifying earthquake by a set date. Common versions include: will California have a magnitude 6.5 or above earthquake this year?, will the Pacific Northwest experience a major Cascadia Subduction Zone event?, or will Japan have a magnitude 7.0 or above in the next 90 days? These are more volatile than annual count contracts because regional probability concentrates on specific fault systems.
Mega-earthquake and catastrophic event contracts
Long-duration binary questions on whether a truly catastrophic seismic event (magnitude 8.5 or above, or a major Cascadia Subduction Zone rupture) will occur before a specific date. These contracts have low implied probabilities but reflect genuine long-term seismic risk. They attract traders with knowledge of return periods for major fault systems and researchers who follow subduction zone hazard assessments.
Named fault zone and subduction zone contracts
Contracts tied to specific geological structures: the San Andreas Fault, the Cascadia Subduction Zone (capable of a magnitude 9.0 or above event affecting the US Pacific Northwest and British Columbia), the New Madrid Seismic Zone (central US), or the Hayward Fault. These are more granular than regional contracts and appeal to traders with specific knowledge of fault system behaviour and historical rupture patterns.
Aftershock and earthquake swarm follow-on contracts
After a significant earthquake, markets can open on whether a qualifying aftershock above a certain magnitude will occur within a specific timeframe, or whether an ongoing swarm will produce a larger main shock. These are shorter-duration, rapidly-repricing markets that respond directly to USGS real-time earthquake monitoring data.
How Earthquake Contracts Settle
All earthquake prediction market contracts resolve on USGS data. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program is the primary resolution source, publishing magnitude, location, and depth data for seismic events globally in near real time. For context on how prediction market settlement works across different natural event categories, see our guide on how prediction market contracts are structured.
| Contract type | Resolution source | Key consideration |
|---|---|---|
| Annual global count | USGS earthquake catalog for the defined period | USGS sometimes revises magnitude estimates after initial reporting; contracts typically resolve on the final published USGS figure |
| Regional threshold | USGS ShakeAlert data or USGS earthquake catalog for the named region | Contract must define the exact geographic boundary; check whether the contract specifies a radius, a state, or a fault zone |
| Mega-earthquake event | USGS earthquake catalog plus confirmation from PAGER or SHAKEMAP where specified | Long-duration contracts; resolution only triggers if a qualifying event occurs before the deadline |
| Aftershock and swarm | USGS real-time earthquake catalog | These markets can resolve within hours or days of the triggering event; check whether preliminary or reviewed magnitude is used |
An important nuance: the USGS regularly revises earthquake magnitudes after initial reporting as more seismic data is processed. A preliminary magnitude of 6.8 can be revised to 7.1 or 6.5 within hours or days of the event. Contracts that are close to a magnitude threshold can resolve differently depending on whether they use the preliminary or reviewed magnitude. Always check the specific contract's resolution criteria on this point.
The Hedging Use Case: Earthquake Markets as Parametric Insurance
Earthquake prediction markets have a real-world application that is unusual among prediction market categories: they can be used by residents of seismically active areas as a form of parametric protection. A homeowner in the San Francisco Bay Area or Seattle who buys a Yes contract on a major regional earthquake is in effect taking a position that pays out precisely when the event they most need financial cushion for occurs. If the earthquake happens, the contract pays $1 per share while property damage is simultaneously occurring. If it does not happen, the premium paid for the contract is the cost of the protection.
This differs from traditional earthquake insurance in three ways. It pays out immediately based on a verifiable USGS data trigger rather than requiring a claims adjustment process. The payout is not tied to actual property damage but to the occurrence of the event. And it is accessible to anyone on a regulated prediction market site with as little as a few dollars. The use case is genuinely distinct from the speculative trading that drives most prediction market volume, and Kalshi has specifically noted California earthquake contracts as attracting this type of hedging participation alongside directional traders.
What Drives Earthquake Market Prices
Earthquake prediction is fundamentally different from weather prediction. The atmosphere follows physical equations that can be modelled hours or days in advance. Earthquake occurrence cannot be forecast on a similar timescale with current science. What drives contract prices is therefore primarily statistical and monitoring-based rather than model-based. For more on the broader weather and natural event category, see our weather prediction markets hub.
- Earthquake swarms. A swarm of small earthquakes in a region is sometimes a precursor to a larger main shock, particularly in volcanic or geothermal areas. When USGS monitors a notable swarm, traders who follow the USGS real-time feed may adjust regional earthquake contracts before any larger event occurs. Kalshi's California contracts are specifically noted as responsive to swarm activity.
- Historical base rates by fault system. Different fault systems have well-documented recurrence intervals for large earthquakes. The Cascadia Subduction Zone produces a magnitude 9+ earthquake roughly every 200 to 500 years, with the last major rupture in 1700. The longer it has been since the last major event on a specific fault system, the more closely traders watch recurrence data for long-duration contracts.
- Induced seismicity. Human activities including wastewater injection, geothermal energy extraction, and hydraulic fracturing can induce earthquake swarms in areas not historically seismic. Oklahoma, which experienced a significant increase in seismicity tied to wastewater injection, is an example. Induced seismicity zones can create elevated probabilities in regions that historically had low earthquake rates, and USGS monitors these specifically.
- USGS ShakeAlert and early warning data. The ShakeAlert system provides real-time earthquake early warning data for the US West Coast. Traders who monitor USGS data in real time can react to developing seismic situations before market prices update fully.
- Global Ring of Fire activity. The Pacific Ring of Fire accounts for roughly 90% of the world's earthquake activity and nearly all of the largest events. Elevated seismic activity in any part of the Ring of Fire does not directly predict activity in other parts, but broad media attention to major global earthquakes tends to increase trading interest in earthquake count and regional contracts across platforms.
How to Start Trading Earthquake Prediction Markets
Earthquake markets run year-round without a seasonal peak comparable to hurricane season, though activity is higher in regions where recent seismicity has elevated public awareness.
- Create and verify your account: Sign up on your chosen site and complete KYC with a government-issued ID. Required before depositing or trading.
- Fund your account: Kalshi, OG, and Crypto.com accept ACH, debit card, and other dollar methods. Polymarket requires USDC via the international platform.
- Find the earthquake markets: Navigate to the Climate, Weather, or Natural Disasters category. Annual count contracts and regional threshold markets are typically the most consistently available.
- Read the resolution criteria carefully: Check the exact magnitude threshold, the geographic boundary (state, radius, fault zone), and whether the contract uses preliminary or reviewed USGS magnitude data. This matters for contracts near a threshold boundary.
- Choose your position and size: For annual count contracts, check the full bracket set to understand where market probability is concentrated. For regional threshold contracts, a Yes position is typically small given the low base probability, unless you are using it as hedging coverage.
- Set up USGS monitoring if actively trading: USGS publishes real-time earthquake data at earthquake.usgs.gov. Checking this during active trading periods, particularly for aftershock and swarm contracts, gives you the same data the market prices off immediately.
Tips for Trading Earthquake Prediction Markets
Use historical USGS frequency data as your baseline
Before trading any earthquake count contract, check the USGS historical earthquake catalog for the relevant magnitude range and time period. Knowing that there are typically 15 to 20 global magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes per year gives you an anchoring point for bracket pricing. A contract that prices the 10 to 12 bracket at $0.35 is claiming a 35% chance of a well-below-average year, which may or may not be justified by current seismic patterns.
Distinguish between seismically active and induced seismicity regions
Historically quiet areas that have become seismically active due to induced seismicity may have elevated short-term earthquake probabilities that are not fully reflected in long-term historical averages. Checking whether USGS identifies a region as experiencing induced seismicity before trading a regional contract adds analytical precision.
Understand magnitude revision risk before trading threshold contracts
USGS magnitude estimates for large earthquakes are sometimes revised materially within hours of initial reporting. A contract on whether a 7.0+ earthquake will occur in a region can resolve differently depending on whether the preliminary magnitude of 6.9 or the revised magnitude of 7.1 is used. Always check which USGS data version the contract resolution criteria specifies, and be cautious about contracts positioned very close to a magnitude boundary.
Consider the hedging frame for regional contracts in your area
If you live in a seismically active area, a Yes contract on a major regional earthquake is one of the few financial products that pays precisely when you may need the funds. The position size needed to provide meaningful hedging coverage is worth thinking about separately from any directional trading rationale.
The Bottom Line on Earthquake Prediction Markets
Earthquake prediction markets are distinctive in the natural event category because they cannot be forecast by models the way tornadoes or hurricanes can. Statistical base rates and real-time USGS monitoring are the primary analytical inputs, and the same data is publicly available to every trader simultaneously. The category is smaller in volume than hurricane markets but has a unique real-world hedging use case for residents of seismically active areas that distinguishes it from purely speculative natural disaster contracts.
For more on the weather and natural events category, see our pages on tornado prediction markets and volcano prediction markets.
Earthquake Prediction Markets FAQ
Which sites offer earthquake prediction markets?
Polymarket has the deepest earthquake coverage with active annual global count contracts and regional magnitude threshold markets. Kalshi carries regional earthquake contracts particularly focused on California and US fault zones. Both sites use USGS as the resolution source. OG and Crypto.com cover selected natural disaster contracts.
What types of earthquake contracts can I trade?
Annual global count brackets (how many 7.0+ earthquakes globally), regional magnitude threshold contracts (will California have a 6.5+ this year?), mega-earthquake and Cascadia Subduction Zone contracts, named fault zone contracts, and aftershock or earthquake swarm follow-on contracts.
How are earthquake contracts settled?
All earthquake prediction market contracts resolve on USGS data. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program publishes magnitude, location, and depth for seismic events globally. USGS sometimes revises preliminary magnitudes after initial reporting, so contracts near a threshold boundary may resolve differently depending on whether preliminary or reviewed data is specified.
Can earthquake markets be used as insurance?
In a limited parametric sense, yes. A resident of a seismically active region who buys a Yes contract on a major regional earthquake holds a position that pays out when the event occurs. This differs from traditional insurance in that it pays based on the USGS data trigger rather than actual property damage, requires no claims process, and is accessible for small amounts. Kalshi has specifically noted this hedging use case for California earthquake contracts.
What is an earthquake swarm and why does it affect prices?
A swarm is a cluster of small earthquakes in a region, sometimes preceding a larger main shock, particularly in volcanic or geothermal areas. When USGS monitors a notable swarm, traders who follow the real-time feed may adjust regional earthquake contracts before any larger event occurs. Kalshi's California contracts are specifically noted as responsive to swarm activity.
Why can't earthquake markets be predicted the way hurricane markets can?
Weather systems follow atmospheric physics that can be modelled hours or days in advance. Earthquake occurrence cannot currently be forecast on a similar timescale because the stress state of fault systems cannot be measured with sufficient precision to identify when rupture is imminent. Statistical base rates and real-time monitoring are the primary analytical tools available.
What is the minimum to start trading earthquake prediction markets?
Minimum deposits are $10 at Kalshi, OG, and Crypto.com. At Polymarket's international platform, a USDC transfer is required with a practical minimum of around $20 via card. Individual contracts can cost as little as $0.01.
