Best Weather Prediction Market Sites and Apps 2026: Trade on Temperature, Storms and Natural Events
Mike Goodpaster Last Verified
15/07/2026
Weather prediction markets let you trade Yes/No contracts on temperature readings, precipitation totals, hurricane landfalls, tornado counts, earthquake activity, and volcanic events. They are one of the few prediction market categories where nature itself settles every contract, using objective data from official meteorological agencies rather than human decisions or institutional announcements.
This page covers the best sites for weather prediction markets, the full range of contract types available, how they settle, the edge that real-time weather model data creates, and how to get started.
Best Sites for Weather Prediction Markets
Kalshi leads for US-based weather traders with granular city-level temperature contracts and the full range of storm and natural event markets. Polymarket has a wider global catalog with 200-plus active weather markets but its coverage is currently only available to US traders via the international platform.
| Prediction market site | Welcome offer | Weather coverage | Funding |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $10 bonus | City temperatures (US), precipitation, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, natural disasters, climate policy | ACH, debit card, PayPal, Venmo, crypto |
| Polymarket | Deposit $20 get $50 | 30+ global cities, 449 climate/weather markets; US traders must use international platform | USDC (Polygon), crypto wallet required |
| Crypto.com | 100% up to $250 | Annual temperature ranking and selected climate outcome contracts | ACH, debit card, Apple Pay, Google Pay, crypto |
| OG | Trade $20 get $20 | Annual hottest year ranking, selected climate contracts | ACH, debit card, crypto |
Kalshi
- Sports, politics, and crypto predictions
- Economics, culture, and climate events
- Optimized Android and iOS apps
- 2% debit card deposit fee
Kalshi is the primary destination for US traders in the weather category, running granular city-level daily temperature brackets with six or more simultaneous contracts per city per day, alongside monthly precipitation, hurricane seasonal and rolling contracts, tornado count brackets, earthquake activity markets, and broader climate policy questions. Every contract names a specific NOAA or National Weather Service observation station as the resolution source, which removes ambiguity about what data governs settlement. The weather category is active year-round, with hurricane season contracts (June through November) attracting the most volume and temperature markets running continuously across major US cities.
New users get a $10 bonus after placing $10 in trades with no promo code needed. Kalshi accepts ACH, debit card, PayPal, and Venmo with no crypto required, and is live in all 50 US states. The Kalshi app includes an Ideas section where traders share meteorological analysis and propose new markets, which is particularly active during severe weather events.
Polymarket
- Polymarket is live in the USA
- Easy pick-up-and-trade mechanics
- Sign-up rewards may be available
- Beginner-friendly platform
- Dynamic trading topics
- Long wait list to join
- High regulatory scrutiny
- Not all markets are available yet
Polymarket runs the widest weather and climate market catalog of any prediction market site, with 449 total climate and science markets of which over 200 are specifically weather. Daily temperature contracts run for 30-plus cities across six continents, and the category extends into hurricane landfalls, tornado counts, earthquake magnitudes, volcanic eruptions, global temperature records, and pandemic risk. Resolution uses specific named datasets: NOAA NCEI, NASA GISS, or Berkeley Earth for climate records; National Hurricane Center official advisories and HURDAT2 post-season data for hurricanes. Hong Kong temperature contracts attract particularly high global trading volume.
The important caveat for US traders: Polymarket US launched as a sports-only platform. Weather and climate markets are available on the international version of the platform, which requires USDC and a compatible crypto wallet. New users receive a $50 trading bonus on a $20 deposit. For traders comfortable with the crypto requirement, Polymarket's breadth of global city coverage and international climate markets is unmatched.
Crypto.com
- Great range of sports predictions
- Simple fee structure
- Stylish website and mobile apps
- Good trade volume for its predictions
- The app is geared towards crypto trading
- No welcome bonus
Crypto.com covers weather and climate contracts through its Financials and Culture categories, with a focus on headline climate outcome questions rather than granular daily forecasts. The most consistent offering is the annual temperature ranking contract, asking where the current calendar year will rank among the hottest on record using official global temperature datasets. This attracts traders with a macro view on climate trends who want a single long-duration position rather than a full weather trading catalog. For users already active on Crypto.com for crypto or other prediction markets, climate contracts are accessible within the same app without a separate account.
New users who sign up through our link receive a 100% deposit match up to $250, the largest welcome offer on this page. The Crypto.com app holds a 4.7-star rating across more than 320,000 App Store reviews and supports Apple Pay and Google Pay for deposits alongside ACH and debit card. The dual $1 and $10 contract format gives traders more position sizing flexibility than sites limited to a single contract size.
OG
- Owned by Crypto.com
- Up to $150 referral bonus
- Well-designed Android and iOS app
- No culture prediction markets yet
OG takes a deliberately focused approach to weather and climate markets, anchoring its coverage around the annual hottest year ranking contract. This market asks where the current calendar year will rank among the hottest ever recorded globally, using official scientific datasets for resolution. Rather than competing with Kalshi's dozens of daily city temperature brackets, OG concentrates volume into this single high-profile question, which has attracted millions in combined platform volume across the major prediction market sites. For traders who want a single meaningful long-duration climate position without navigating a full weather catalog, OG's focused approach is a clean entry point.
New users receive a Trade $20 get $20 welcome offer. OG accepts ACH, debit card, and crypto for deposits. The platform runs on the same CFTC-regulated infrastructure as Crypto.com, giving it the same regulatory protections and account structure. OG is available as a standalone social prediction app alongside its parent platform, and the interface is designed with casual traders in mind rather than meteorological specialists.
What Weather Prediction Markets Cover
The weather and climate category is broader than most traders expect. It ranges from the daily high temperature in a single city to multi-year climate milestone questions. For the specific sub-categories on our site, see our dedicated pages on tornado prediction markets, hurricane prediction markets, earthquake prediction markets, and volcano prediction markets.
Daily city temperature contracts
The most granular and frequently traded weather contract type. A city's daily high or low temperature is divided into degree-range brackets and a contract runs on each bracket simultaneously. Kalshi runs six or more overlapping temperature brackets for major US cities every day, each naming the specific NWS observation station used for settlement. These attract traders who use numerical weather models, ensemble forecasts, and local pattern knowledge to price temperature outcomes more accurately than the current market reflects.
Monthly precipitation contracts
Contracts on whether a specific city will exceed or fall below a set rainfall or snowfall total for the month. These suit traders with knowledge of seasonal patterns, El Niño and La Niña conditions, and longer-range forecast models that extend beyond the reliable two-week window.
Hurricane season and landfall contracts
Seasonal contracts on the total number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in the Atlantic or Pacific basin. Rolling contracts on whether a named storm will make landfall in a specific region, at what intensity, and on what timeframe. These run from June through November and attract traders with meteorological knowledge of sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and steering currents. See our dedicated hurricane prediction markets page for the full breakdown.
Tornado count contracts
Monthly bracket contracts asking how many tornadoes will be reported in the US during a given period. Historical tornado frequency data from the Storm Prediction Center provides a baseline, and traders who follow severe weather pattern setups (CAPE values, wind shear, moisture convergence) can refine their estimates beyond historical averages. See our dedicated tornado prediction markets page.
Earthquake and volcanic event contracts
Contracts on whether a significant earthquake (above a specified magnitude) will occur in a defined region, and whether volcanic activity will reach a specified level. These are longer-duration markets that reflect seismic monitoring data and volcanic observatory reports. See our dedicated pages on earthquake prediction markets and volcano prediction markets.
Annual temperature ranking contracts
Long-duration contracts asking where the current calendar year will rank among the hottest years on record globally, using official datasets from NOAA, NASA GISS, or Berkeley Earth. These attract traders with a view on longer-term climate trends and stay open for the full year, repricing as monthly global temperature data is released.
Climate policy and milestone contracts
Contracts on whether specific countries will meet emissions targets, whether atmospheric CO2 concentration will exceed specific thresholds, and whether Arctic sea ice extent will reach a new record. These resolve on official scientific data from relevant agencies and attract traders who follow climate science and policy closely.
How Weather Contracts Settle
Settlement is what makes weather prediction markets fundamentally different from most other prediction market categories: every contract resolves on objective, publicly available scientific data from established agencies. There is no human judgement involved in determining the outcome.
| Contract type | Resolution source | Resolution timing |
|---|---|---|
| Daily city temperature | Named NWS observation station (Kalshi); NWS or equivalent national service (Polymarket) | After the official daily observation is reported for that station |
| Monthly precipitation | Named NWS station or NOAA monthly summary | After the official monthly total is confirmed |
| Hurricane landfall | National Hurricane Center official advisories and post-season best-track data (HURDAT2) | After NHC confirms the storm's final track and intensity |
| Seasonal hurricane count | NHC official season summary and HURDAT2 | After the official Atlantic season summary is published |
| Tornado count | Storm Prediction Center tornado reports | After the SPC confirms monthly tornado totals |
| Earthquake event | USGS Earthquake Hazards Program | After USGS confirms the event magnitude and location |
| Annual temperature ranking | NOAA NCEI, NASA GISS, or Berkeley Earth | After the relevant agency publishes annual global temperature data |
The Weather Model Edge
The weather model edge is unique to weather prediction markets and represents publicly available data rather than inside information. Weather markets have a specific informational advantage for traders who follow meteorological data closely: major numerical weather models update on fixed six-hour cycles, and the market does not always reprice immediately when a significant model update arrives.
The Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) both publish new model runs roughly every six hours. Each run can show meaningful shifts from the previous one, particularly for active weather systems within a five-day forecast window. A hurricane that was tracking offshore in the morning run may be tracking toward the coast in the afternoon run. A temperature forecast that was aligned with the current contract price may shift by several degrees in the new model output. If a trader identifies a significant model shift while the market price has not yet updated to reflect it, that gap between the model and the market is a genuine, publicly available informational edge.
Settlement Data Integrity
Weather prediction markets are generally among the cleanest in terms of manipulation risk, since meteorological data comes from physical infrastructure (weather stations, satellites, radar networks) rather than human decisions or social media. However, at least one confirmed case of weather data manipulation has emerged: French authorities investigated someone suspected of tampering with a weather station to affect the outcome of a Paris temperature contract on Polymarket. The incident illustrates that while the risk is low compared to, say, streaming chart manipulation, it is not zero for contracts tied to a single physical measurement point.
The practical mitigation is straightforward: contracts that reference multiple independent data sources, or those based on regional averages, carry lower manipulation risk than contracts that resolve on a single station's reading. Kalshi naming the specific NWS station in each contract's rules allows traders to assess that risk directly before entering.
How to Start Trading Weather Prediction Markets
Weather markets run continuously year-round for temperature and precipitation, with seasonal peaks during hurricane season and major severe weather events. Having an account set up in advance of a named storm season or a significant weather pattern is better than rushing in during peak activity.
- Create and verify your account: Sign up on your chosen site and complete KYC with a government-issued ID. Required before depositing or trading.
- Fund your account: Kalshi accepts ACH, debit card, PayPal, and Venmo in dollars. Polymarket's weather markets require USDC and a compatible crypto wallet via the international platform.
- Find the weather markets: Navigate to the Climate or Weather category. Sub-sections for temperature, precipitation, hurricanes, tornadoes, and natural events are grouped separately on most sites.
- Check the resolution source before entering: Every weather contract names its resolution data source. Confirm the specific station, dataset, and timing before trading, especially for daily temperature and precipitation contracts where the exact station matters.
- Choose Yes or No and set your size: Market orders fill immediately. Limit orders allow you to set a specific price. Weather contracts benefit from limit orders around model update windows when prices can move quickly.
- Monitor model updates for active contracts: For temperature, storm, and precipitation contracts, major weather model runs publish every six hours. Checking model output after each run gives you the most current information available.
Tips for Trading Weather Prediction Markets
Learn to read weather model output
The single biggest edge available in weather prediction markets is understanding model output before the market prices it in. The GFS and ECMWF model runs are publicly available. Learning to read ensemble spread, track forecasts, and temperature guidance from these models turns publicly available data into a genuine trading advantage. Traders who follow meteorological forums, professional forecast discussions, and model diagnostic sites are consistently better positioned than those who rely only on consumer weather apps.
Know which model update windows matter most for your contract
Different contracts care about different model windows. A daily temperature contract due to resolve in 12 hours cares about the most recent model run. A hurricane landfall contract with a five-day window cares about the progression of multiple model runs over several days. Matching your monitoring frequency to your contract's time horizon is an important part of trading weather markets efficiently.
Use the bracket format to find the right entry
For daily temperature contracts, the full bracket set tells you where the market concentrates its probability. Entering the bracket on the edge of the distribution, where the market shows the most uncertainty, tends to offer better value than entering the bracket with the highest probability. A contract at the boundary of two high-probability brackets may be pricing the transition incorrectly if a recent model run has shifted the expected temperature toward one side.
Be cautious about single-station contracts near outlier conditions
Contracts that resolve on a single physical weather station reading carry some manipulation risk, as demonstrated by the Paris station incident. Beyond manipulation, single-station readings are also affected by local microclimate effects that can diverge from broader area forecasts. Checking whether the named station has any known local biases before entering a daily temperature contract reduces this risk. Checking the order book depth on both platforms before committing to any position on a single-station contract is sensible practice.
The Bottom Line on Weather Prediction Markets
Weather prediction markets are a genuinely distinctive category: they resolve on objective scientific data, they update continuously as model guidance evolves, and they reward traders with meteorological knowledge in a way that few other categories reward domain expertise so directly. Kalshi leads for US-based trading with granular city-level coverage and named data sources for every contract. Polymarket has the widest global coverage but requires the international platform for US traders.
For the full range of weather sub-categories, see our dedicated pages on climate and weather prediction markets.
Weather Prediction Markets FAQ
Which site is best for weather prediction markets?
Kalshi is the primary destination for US-based dollar-funded weather trading, with granular city temperature brackets, precipitation markets, and the full range of storm and natural event contracts. Polymarket has the widest global catalog (200-plus active weather markets) but US traders must use the international version with USDC. Crypto.com and OG cover headline climate ranking contracts.
What types of weather prediction markets are available?
The main types are daily city temperature brackets, monthly precipitation totals, hurricane season and landfall contracts, tornado count brackets, earthquake event markets, volcanic activity contracts, annual global temperature ranking markets, and longer-term climate policy and milestone contracts.
How are weather prediction market contracts settled?
Different contract types use different official sources. Temperature contracts resolve on named NWS station observations. Hurricane contracts use NHC advisories and HURDAT2 post-season data. Tornado counts use Storm Prediction Center reports. Earthquake contracts use USGS data. Annual temperature rankings use NOAA NCEI, NASA GISS, or Berkeley Earth. Every contract names its specific source before you trade.
What is the weather model edge in prediction markets?
Major numerical weather models (GFS, ECMWF) update every six hours and publish their output publicly. When a significant model shift occurs and the prediction market price has not yet updated to reflect it, that gap is a genuine informational edge for traders who monitor model output. This edge is unique to weather markets and represents publicly available data rather than inside information.
Can weather data be manipulated like streaming charts?
The risk is lower than in categories like music streaming since weather data comes from physical infrastructure. However, at least one confirmed case occurred where a weather station reading was suspected of being manipulated to affect a Paris temperature contract. Contracts tied to a single physical station carry more risk than those based on regional averages or multiple independent sources.
Are Polymarket weather markets available to US traders?
Not through the US-regulated Polymarket app, which launched as a sports-only platform. Polymarket's weather markets are available on the international version, which requires USDC and a compatible crypto wallet. For US traders who want weather markets without crypto, Kalshi is the more accessible option.
What is the minimum to start trading weather prediction markets?
Minimum deposits are $10 at Kalshi and Crypto.com. At Polymarket's international platform, a USDC transfer is required with a practical minimum of around $20 via card. Individual contracts can cost as little as $0.01.
