What is a sports prediction market?
It’s absolutely no exaggeration to say that the pace of growth in prediction markets has been astronomical. It’s also worth noting that much of the success of these event trading platforms boils down to the fact that they allow users to trade on real-world sports fixtures – providing a nice alternative to standard sports betting sites in the USA.
Sports event trading is, without doubt, the most popular area to trade on prediction markets online, driving by far the biggest volume of traders. This makes sense when you consider that real-money sports betting remains off limits in many US jurisdictions, as legit prediction markets are typically available in more states thanks to federal accreditation from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)– more on that later.
Of course, sports prediction markets and sportsbooks are completely different beasts, so don’t go thinking that we’re peddling gambling sites here. The likes of Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com – three sites that offer sports event trading that we’ll be discussing a little later – give users the chance to predict the outcome of sports events, sure, but not in a way that constitutes or assimilates standard sports betting.
Deposit $20 get $50
- Sports event trading is the core of Polymarket’s US offering
- Predict outcomes of NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, and MLS fixtures
- Live and upcoming fixtures covered
$10 Bonus
+3
- 15+ sports and esports categories
- Game winner, totals, spreads, props, and futures
- Live sports event trading
100% up to $250
+2
- Great support for different sports
- Single game predictions for the outright winner of matches
- Futures predictions for leagues or event champions, and end of season awards
Is it legal to use sports prediction markets in the USA?
We appreciate that the question of legality concerning sports event trading in the USA may be a priority for you, particularly if you live in a state with tough laws around the use of sports betting sites. The good news is that prediction markets are generally available in many more states than their sportsbook counterparts, thanks in no small part to regulatory and compliance oversight from the CFTC – the federal body responsible for overseeing derivatives trading platforms across the USA.
With approval from the CFTC, prediction markets like Kalshi have been able to deploy in all 50 US states, providing a safe, legal, and regulated way to make predictions on any topic that you’re interested in. Of course, there are some state lawmakers who take issue with the rollout of these platforms, believing that they’re too closely associated with real gambling. But, generally speaking, platforms with the backing of the CFTC are available in the majority of US jurisdictions, which is part of the reason why they’re proving so popular.
Are sports prediction markets safe?
It is worth mentioning that sports prediction markets still bring an inherent risk of losing money. While it is possible to buy/sell your position at any time when using these trading tools, the threat of losing a lot of money on a single trade remains high. As such, we always advise caution to anyone looking to use future event trading tools regularly; do not take these financial trading platforms lightly, but instead consider each trade you make carefully, and only ever finance new contracts within your comfortable limits.
How do prediction markets work for sports events?
If you’re not familiar with, say, trading on the economy or similar topics at prediction markets, then you may be in need of a quick crash course in how these platforms work for sports. But first, let’s quickly get you up to speed on the basics of what prediction markets are and what they can offer.
A quick intro to prediction markets
Prediction markets let users buy or sell event trading contracts linked to a variety of real-world events, including sports. These platforms pose questions like, “Will the Indiana Pacers win against Miami Heat?”, and then it’s your job to make a prediction, typically in a “Yes” or “No” format.
If you think the Pacers will win, you can purchase “Yes” contracts, and if you think they won’t, you would choose “No”. These contracts are priced from $0 to $1 and reflect probability; so, if the “Yes” contract was valued at $0.40, this denotes that the Pacers have a 40% chance of winning, while the counterpart “No” contract would be valued at $0.60, representing 60% probability.
The price (and therefore the probability) of these event contracts is driven by market activity and trading volume, pure and simple. If lots of people also believe that the Pacers will win (perhaps after learning about an injury to one of Heat’s key players, for example), then this will impact the per-contract price – an effect often referred to as the “wisdom of crowds”.
How do you win or lose when using sports prediction markets?
Good question. Unlike traditional sports betting sites, prediction markets are better thought of as financial trading tools. So, you’re not simply winning a standalone bet on these platforms, but holding a position that will (hopefully) help you to turn a profit on your initial investment.
When you place a wager on a sportsbook, it’s rare that you can retract your bet and get your money back, and that’s where the risk comes from. But with prediction market tools, it’s possible to buy and sell positions on sports event trades at any time, so you get full control right up to the moment that a trade resolves (i.e., a game ends).
That’s not to say that you can’t lose money when using sports prediction tools. On the contrary, if you guess wrong and have shares on the losing position when the trade resolves, you’ll lose all your initial investment – this is where the risk comes from in predicting sports markets.
On most online prediction markets, trades resolve at either $0 for an incorrect guess or $1 for a correct one. So, if you’ve purchased a “Yes” contract on the Pacers to win against Heat at $0.40, and they manage it, you’ll get $1 per contract you purchased, equating to $0.60 profit per share. If they lose, your initial investment is gone.
How to use sports prediction markets step by step
Are you someone who learns by seeing how things play out? Then we’ve put together this useful guide covering exactly how sports event trading works.
- Choose your preferred prediction market from those available in your jurisdiction. We can recommend the likes of Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, which cover everything from sports to trading on culture.
- Register for a new account with your chosen prediction market. You’ll need to pass KYC-style (know your customer) verification checks as part of this, so have a government-issued ID and perhaps a recent utility bill to hand to make the process as smooth as possible.
- Once you’ve set up your account, you’ll need to add some funds to it so that you can start trading. Simply head to your account screen, access the funding panel, and select your preferred payment method to add money to your account.
- Now, you’re ready to start trading. Tap the “Sports” tab to access all of the platform’s latest markets, including upcoming and live fixtures and events.
- Select the market you’re interested in and review the price of each team-linked contract. Remember that the price of “Yes” or “No” contracts denotes probability, so you can get a sense for which way the market is heading.
- Make your prediction and then choose how many shares you want to purchase; there’s rarely an upper limit, so long as you have the funds to cover it. You can then review your trade along with the platform’s trading fee (this is how they make their cut).
- With your trade locked in, the waiting game begins. Of course, with the option to buy more shares or sell your position at any time, it’s worth keeping tabs on current prices and the momentum of the game. Even if things aren’t going your way, it may be possible to recoup some of your stake by selling your position before the game ends.
- The trade resolves when the game ends or the tournament has its winner, for example. Winning contracts are settled at $1 and losing ones at $0. Your total profit will depend on the price of the contract when you locked in your trade, be it $0.40 or another figure.
That’s a basic run-through of how to use sports prediction markets in the USA. In some instances, you may be asked to choose other contract types, such as categorical (multiple choice) or scalar (range-based), while some trades may resolve at slightly different times depending on the question being asked. But this step-by-step guide should have at least given you a rudimentary understanding of how prediction markets work for sports event trading.
Five examples of different sports event trades
To demonstrate the depth of market options when predicting sports events, we thought it was worth taking a look at some real-world examples of the kinds of things you can trade on. Understand that you’re not limited to basic outright winner trades here, but can make a variety of predictions, some not even related to the outcome of a game itself.
| Type of prediction | Key details | Example |
| Match winner | The most basic type of sports prediction; simply correctly predict the winner of a game to make a winning trade. | Will Manchester United win their next game in the EPL? |
| Tournament/championship winner | A long-term futures trade, wherein you predict the team (or player in golf or tennis, for example) that will win a tournament or championship. | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the French Open in 2026? |
| Player performance | Trade on individual performance and scoring stats if you think a player will prove instrumental in your team’s victory. | Can LeBron James score over 30 points? |
| In-game live events | Prediction markets offer lots of live, in-game trades, including the chance to predict what the next play will be in a given fixture. | Will the next play lead to a touchdown? |
| Season-long props | Props let you predict outcomes beyond just winners, including season-long forecasts. | Can the Miami Heat win five games in a row? |
Within the context of these sports event trades, you can predict the outcome based on the standard binary yes/no contract model. However, note that some different sports trades use multiple choice (categorical) and sliding-scale range (scalar) formats; the same is true if you were to use political prediction markets, too.
Try our recommended sports prediction markets
If you’re interested in trying your hand at sports event trading, your next step is to find a suitable place to trade. Happily, most US prediction markets prioritize sports as their most popular trading topic class, alongside trading on climate and other topics. So, you should have no difficulty in finding the right platform.
Below, we’ve showcased three recommended prediction markets that you can use for sports event trading, including Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com.
Kalshi – The USA’s most accessible sports event trading market
- Sports, politics, and crypto predictions
- Economics, culture, and climate events
- Optimized Android and iOS apps
- 2% debit card deposit fee
Thanks to full accreditation from the CFTC, Kalshi is easily the most accessible event trading platform in the USA, available to traders in all 50 states. This makes it a go-to for beginner traders looking for an easy inroad into the world of online event trading, with no lingering doubts or question marks over the legality of the platform.
Of course, Kalshi’s sports event trading markets aren’t too shabby, either. The last time we checked, there were well over 1,200 open sports events markets on the platform, including both live and future trading opportunities. Add to that awesome market categorization and a useful search function, and Kalshi is an obvious choice for the title of best sports event trading platform in the USA.
Polymarket – Dynamic markets and huge trading potential
- Polymarket is live in the USA
- Easy pick-up-and-trade mechanics
- Sign-up rewards may be available
- Beginner-friendly platform
- Dynamic trading topics
- Long wait list to join
- High regulatory scrutiny
- Not all markets are available yet
Since Polymarket is only partially regulated by the CFTC, it’s not yet available in all parts of the USA, and new members will need to join a waiting list before they can gain full access to the platform. That’s not a dealbreaker, however, particularly when you look at the deep sports trading potential that this dynamic event trading platform affords its members.
Polymarket prioritizes sports event trading more than any other platform, with thousands of markets available to trade on at any one time. You’ll find outrights, props, futures, and everything in between here, with both domestic and international sports fixtures accounted for.
Crypto.com – Full CFTC approval and pick-up-and-play trading mechanics
- Great range of sports predictions
- Simple fee structure
- Stylish website and mobile apps
- Good trade volume for its predictions
- The app is geared towards crypto trading
- No welcome bonus
Crypto.com offers awesome sports event trading depth, with dozens of individual sports and plenty of different outcomes to predict. That includes all homegrown US leagues, right down to collegiate level, along with tournaments, events, and championships from across the world of international sport.
Elsewhere, the platform enjoys the full backing of the CFTC, so, like Kalshi, it’s available in all 50 US states right now. It’s also well-regarded for its intuitive user interfaces and easy-to-follow trading tools, not to mention its flexible choice of both fiat and crypto funding options. So, if you’re looking for an accessible, beginner-friendly place to trade on your favorite sports and teams, this could be a smart choice.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
The pros and cons of sports prediction markets
Sports prediction markets are a fun way to bet on more than just winners. They let you trade on games, live events, and even season-long outcomes, but like anything, there are some pros and cons to keep in mind.
- CFTC-certified sites are available in all 50 states
- Predict outcomes from across the world of sport
- Make predictions on live and future events
- Easy trading mechanics
- Simple profit/loss parameters
- Regulatory scrutiny remains
Get set for a winning sports event trading experience
It’s easy to see why the popularity of sports prediction markets has exploded in the USA, particularly in jurisdictions with tight legislation on the use of standard sports betting sites. CFTC-approved prediction market platforms not only provide a legal means of forecasting different sports events, but they do so in a wholly intuitive and beginner-friendly way.
Of course, we shouldn’t forget the risks of using sports event trading tools. It is possible to lose a significant amount of money when using these types of sites and apps, so consider your trading budget very carefully.
Ready to get started with a recommended prediction market? Learn more about Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket using the links around this page.
Our recommended sports prediction market sites
Deposit $20 get $50
- Sports event trading is the core of Polymarket’s US offering
- Predict outcomes of NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, and MLS fixtures
- Live and upcoming fixtures covered
$10 Bonus
+3
- 15+ sports and esports categories
- Game winner, totals, spreads, props, and futures
- Live sports event trading
100% up to $250
+2
- Great support for different sports
- Single game predictions for the outright winner of matches
- Futures predictions for leagues or event champions, and end of season awards
Trade to get up to $100 in Bonuses!
+6
- 7+ sports for predictions
- Parlays and same-game parlays
- Live sports event trading
200% up to $100
- Predict the outcome of sports such as tennis, soccer, and more
- Major sports leagues and tournaments are covered
- Multi-team predictions are available
Sports prediction market FAQs
Are sport prediction markets the same as gambling sites?
No, they’re not the same. While both let you predict the outcome of different sports events, prediction markets are considered financial trading products, giving you the option to buy or sell positions whenever you like.
Can you win money when using sports prediction markets?
Yes, you may be able to make a profit on any successful sports event trades you make. However, always bear in mind the risk of losing money, too.
Which platforms offer sports event trading in the USA?
We recommend Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com as the best sites for sports event trading in the USA.
