Prediction market trading explained
For this guide on prediction markets vs sportsbooks, let’s start by exploring how prediction markets work and what event trading is first. Prediction markets are simply groups of predictions based on real world events such as sports matches, government elections, company valuations, and changes in the weather. Exchanges like Kalshi and Crypto.com facilitate the trading of these predictions, and event trading is simply the act of buying, selling, or holding contracts of any event you want.
Specifically you can trade yes or no contracts based on the predictions. This is a peer-to-peer trading service which means there is no house edge, no odds, and you are buying trade contracts on predictions from other customers on the same platform. Typically, the event contracts have a set value of $1 each when they settle, and you can buy and sell them for less than $1 and this is how you potentially make a return.
For instance, buying a 19.6c contract would potentially give you an 80.4c profit if your prediction is correct. There are minimal trading fees that are included as well, so you should also keep it in mind. Trading fees vary depending on the platform.
For each trade contract you own, you can do one of two things:
- Sell it if the price moves in your favor.
- Hold it and attempt to settle it for a return.
Buying and selling event contracts is the main activity at prediction market exchanges. The exchange platform takes a small fee for each transaction and simply provides you with the tools to be able to make trades. You can also choose to hold your event contracts though and if you do, and you got the prediction they are based on right, you will get a $1 return minus any fees for each contract.
Examples of live predictions you can trade
To build on the idea of what prediction markets are, we’ve given you some live examples in the below table. At the time of writing this guide, these predictions were available to trade at popular exchanges in the US:
| Prediction | Yes Contract | No Contract | Operator |
| 2026 NCAA Tournament Winner (Arizona) | 19.6c | 80.6c | Polymarket |
| Bitcoin Price at the end of 2026 (60,000 to 64,999.99) | 9.3c | 90.8c | Kalshi |
| Best AI this week? (Claude) | 99.0c | 1.0c | Kalshi |
| US Presidential Election Winner in 2028 (JD Vance) | 21c | 81c | Crypto.com |
| US Recession by the end of 2026 | 40c | 68c | Crypto.com |
You can typically find a large range of different prediction markets, including:
- Sports
- Elections
- Politics
- Culture
- Crypto
- Economics
- Companies
- Tech & Science
- Climate
Pros and cons of prediction trading
We think prediction trading is fantastic and you will find that it offers far more versatility than online sportsbooks. There are many more categories, plus you have the potential to make returns in two different ways - selling or holding your trade contracts. However, they are not perfect, and we also accept that prediction market trading does require more effort and research.
- Loads of different categories
- Simple fee structure
- You can buy, sell, and hold contracts
- Widely available in the US
- Steeper learning curve
Online sportsbooks explained and their differences
Where prediction markets are a form of peer-to-peer trading, online sportsbooks facilitate sports betting wagers. With this process, you are betting directly against the house and the odds they have set for different bets. There is no peer-to-peer action, and for each wager you make, there is a built in house edge, as well as the chance that your wager outright loses in the first place.
This is a completely different process to trading prediction markets. The probabilities of each event contract are not set by prediction market sites, but are based on trader insight and news or updates regarding the specific event. There’s also no house edge aspect in prediction markets, you’re simply buying, selling, or holding your contracts.
100% up to $20
- Sports event trading is the core of Polymarket’s US offering
- Predict outcomes of NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, and MLS fixtures
- Live and upcoming fixtures covered
$10 Bonus
+3
- 15+ sports and esports categories
- Game winner, totals, spreads, props, and futures
- Live sports event trading
100% up to $250
+2
- Great support for different sports
- Single game predictions for the outright winner of matches
- Futures predictions for leagues or event champions, and end of season awards
How to start trading at an online prediction exchange
Now that you understand the difference between these two types of sites, you should also know that prediction markets are legal in the US, as long as the prediction market site is CFTC-regulated. Now, you can consider signing up with one of our recommended operators. We explain how to do this below, plus how your first trade might look.
Creating your prediction exchange account
You can only buy and sell prediction trade contracts if you have registered an account with one of the relevant operators in the US. This process usually takes around 5 minutes, as oftentimes you will have to do some additional verification before you can log in to your account. The actual steps typically include:
- Clicking one of our recommended prediction exchange banners.
- Clicking the sign up, join, or register button.
- Entering any required personal information.
- Reading and accepting the site T&Cs if needed.
- Doing any initial SMS and email verification.
- Doing any full ID checks.
- Logging into your new account.
The verification requirements during the signup process will vary from site-to-site, but from our experience, they usually include:
- Email verification by clicking a specific link.
- SMS verification by entering a 6-digit code you receive on your smartphone.
- Full KYC check involving uploading a photo ID and taking a selfie.
It’s important that you comply with any verification steps as you may not be able to access all of the exchange’s features until you do.
Buying your first event contract
With your account successfully created, it’s time to credit it with some USD or crypto depending on what the site supports and your preference. You can then use your fiat or crypto account balance to buy and tell prediction trade contracts, typically via these steps:
- Log in to your prediction exchange account.
- Check your account balance.
- Find the prediction you want to buy yes or no contracts for.
- Select the yes or no trade contract you want to buy.
- Enter the number of contracts.
- Confirm the purchase.
Please make sure that you double check your selections before you finalize your trade - this includes the quantity of trade contracts, the current price, and any fees you are paying. With your trade contracts purchased, you can then sell them at a later date if the price changes in your favor, or hold them and attempt to settle them successfully when the event happens.
Prediction markets vs sportsbooks - know the difference and act accordingly
So, while there are indeed sports prediction markets that you can trade, this process, and all other prediction trading is fundamentally NOT the same as online sports betting. To recap why - there are no odds involved and you are not betting against the house. Instead, you are merely trading yes or no trade contracts relating to real-world predictions with other traders in a peer-2-peer network that the prediction exchange facilitates.
With this understanding, you should now be able to grasp if you want to give it a try or not and if you think it is something you will enjoy. If you do, feel free to check out the reviews we have for popular prediction exchanges, or click any of the banners we have linked on this page and get signed up to an operator today to start trading.
Unveiling our preferred prediction sites
100% up to $20
- Sports event trading is the core of Polymarket’s US offering
- Predict outcomes of NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, and MLS fixtures
- Live and upcoming fixtures covered
$10 Bonus
+3
- 15+ sports and esports categories
- Game winner, totals, spreads, props, and futures
- Live sports event trading
100% up to $250
+2
- Great support for different sports
- Single game predictions for the outright winner of matches
- Futures predictions for leagues or event champions, and end of season awards
Trade to get up to $100 in Bonuses!
+6
- 7+ sports for predictions
- Parlays and same-game parlays
- Live sports event trading
200% up to $100
- Predict the outcome of sports such as tennis, soccer, and more
- Major sports leagues and tournaments are covered
- Multi-team predictions are available
Prediction markets vs. sportsbook FAQs
Are there odds involved with prediction trading?
No. You can usually see a percentage relating to the chance that an event will or won't happen. BUT, it’s important to realize that this is not an “odds” set by the operator - the percentage is a reflection of the overall peer-to-peer trading sentiment and what the market is suggesting the likely outcome will be, or trade confidence in a yes or no trade contract.
Can you win money from trading predictions?
You can’t “win money”. Instead, you can potentially make a return by selling your trade contracts for more than you bought them for. Also, you can hold your prediction trade contracts until the event happens, and if you got the prediction right, your contracts are considered settled, in which case you’ll typically get back $1 minus fees for each trade contract.
Are prediction trading exchanges legit?
The operators we work with are, yes. You can be assured that we only work with reputable prediction exchanges that are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and have strict geoblocking policies and verification processes to make sure only legit customers are signing up.
Who can legally sign up at prediction trading exchanges?
This depends on the operator and which states it chooses to offer its services in. However, from our experience, most prediction exchanges are legal in the US provided they are regulated by the CFTC and you have to be over 21 to register an account.
