Best Inflation Prediction Markets Sites & Apps 2026: Trade CPI and PCE Contracts
Jesse M. Cox Last Verified
14/07/2026
Inflation prediction markets are among the most actively traded economics contracts on prediction market sites. Every month, traders take positions on whether the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will come in above or below a specific level, with millions of dollars in volume flowing through these markets in the days before and after each BLS release.
This page covers the best sites for inflation prediction markets, the different types of inflation contracts available, how they are settled, the edge cases that can affect resolution, and what economic signals move prices.
Best Sites for Inflation Prediction Markets
The table below shows the main sites with inflation contract coverage. The economics category on both Kalshi and Polymarket sits alongside Fed rate decisions, GDP data, and employment markets.
| Prediction market site | Welcome offer | Inflation coverage | Funding |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $10 bonus | Monthly CPI YoY, Core CPI, PCE, annual ceiling contracts | ACH, debit card, PayPal, Venmo, crypto |
| Polymarket | Deposit $20 get $50 | 104+ active CPI markets, annual ceiling, UK inflation | USDC (Polygon), MoonPay, ACH |
| Crypto.com | 100% up to $250 | Macro and economic outlook contracts | ACH, debit card, Apple Pay, Google Pay, crypto |
| OG | Trade $20 get $20 | Selected economic contracts | ACH, debit card, crypto |
Kalshi
- Sports, politics, and crypto predictions
- Economics, culture, and climate events
- Optimized Android and iOS apps
- 2% debit card deposit fee
Kalshi runs one of the deepest inflation market lineups, covering monthly CPI year-over-year, monthly CPI month-over-month, Core CPI (excluding food and energy), PCE inflation, and annual ceiling contracts asking whether CPI will exceed a specific level at any point during the calendar year. These markets have attracted serious institutional attention: a Federal Reserve Board research paper published in 2026 cited Kalshi's inflation contracts alongside CPI swaps and bond markets as a valuable tool for extracting real-time inflation expectations, noting their ability to provide intraday forecasts ahead of official BLS releases.
New users get a $10 bonus after placing $10 in trades with no promo code needed. Kalshi's dollar-native funding accepts ACH, debit card, PayPal, and Venmo. The inflation category sits within the broader economics section of the Kalshi app, alongside Fed rate decisions, GDP, and employment markets, making it easy to follow the full macro picture from one place.
Polymarket
- Polymarket is live in the USA
- Easy pick-up-and-trade mechanics
- Sign-up rewards may be available
- Beginner-friendly platform
- Dynamic trading topics
- Long wait list to join
- High regulatory scrutiny
- Not all markets are available yet
Polymarket carries over 100 active CPI markets with $2.9M in trading volume. The headline annual contract, "How high will inflation get in 2026?", tracks whether CPI YoY will exceed various thresholds over the full calendar year. As of mid-2026, with headline CPI rising to 4.2% in May driven by energy price spikes from Middle Eastern supply disruptions, the above-4% threshold was pricing at 98% probability. Polymarket also covers UK annual inflation alongside US markets, and the full-year rate cut count contracts are tightly linked to inflation outcomes since Fed rate decisions respond directly to CPI prints.
New users who deposit $20 or more receive a $50 trading bonus, the strongest welcome offer of the three sites here. The Polymarket iOS app includes a news feed linked to active markets, which is useful for tracking the BLS release schedule and the macro commentary that moves CPI contracts in the days before and after each print.
Crypto.com
- Great range of sports predictions
- Simple fee structure
- Stylish website and mobile apps
- Good trade volume for its predictions
- The app is geared towards crypto trading
- No welcome bonus
Crypto.com covers broader economic outlook contracts in its Financials category, which can include inflation-related markets during periods of elevated macro volatility. For users already active on the platform, economic markets are accessible alongside the full crypto and sports catalog without a separate sign-up. Coverage is less systematic than Kalshi's dedicated inflation section but is worth checking during months with significant inflation surprises.
New users who sign up through our link receive a 100% deposit match up to $250, the largest welcome offer on this page. Apple Pay and Google Pay are supported for deposits alongside ACH and debit card.
Types of Inflation Contracts Available
Inflation markets cover several distinct contract types, each suited to a different kind of view. Understanding the difference before trading matters because the resolution mechanics, the data source, and the risk profile each vary. For a broader look at the economics prediction market category, see our economics prediction markets overview.
Monthly CPI YoY (year-over-year)
The most common inflation contract type. Each month, a contract asks whether CPI YoY will be above or below a specific percentage level when the BLS publishes the official monthly report. A typical contract might ask "Will CPI YoY be above 3.0% in June 2026?" These contracts close when the BLS releases the relevant data. They attract the most volume of any inflation contract type because there is a new one every month and the BLS release date is known in advance, creating a predictable calendar of trading opportunities.
Monthly CPI MoM (month-over-month)
Separate from YoY contracts, these ask whether the monthly change in CPI will be above or below a specific level. MoM contracts are more sensitive to single-month price movements rather than long-run trends, making them more volatile and more responsive to specific category price shocks such as energy or shelter in a given month.
Core CPI contracts
Core CPI excludes food and energy, removing the most volatile components. These contracts attract traders who want to take a view on underlying inflation trends without the noise from oil prices or seasonal food price movements. Core CPI is also the inflation measure watched most closely by the Federal Reserve when setting policy, making it particularly relevant for traders who are simultaneously active in Fed rate decision markets.
PCE inflation contracts
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. PCE contracts are less liquid than CPI contracts but attract traders with a specific view on Fed policy, since the Fed explicitly targets 2% on the PCE measure rather than CPI.
Annual ceiling contracts
These ask whether CPI will exceed a specific level at any point during the calendar year, such as "Will CPI YoY be above 4% in 2026?" They resolve Yes the moment any monthly BLS release shows CPI above the threshold, or No at year-end if no monthly print exceeded the level. These are the highest-dollar-volume inflation contracts and stay open for the full year, repricing continuously as each monthly print comes in.
International inflation contracts
UK CPI and Eurozone HICP contracts appear on Polymarket alongside US markets. These resolve using official UK Office for National Statistics data and Eurostat data respectively. International inflation markets attract traders with views on Bank of England or ECB policy who want inflation exposure in those jurisdictions.
How Inflation Contracts Are Settled
The settlement details of inflation contracts matter more than on many other market types, because the BLS uses one-decimal precision in its official headline release, and prediction market contracts resolve to that same one-decimal figure. A few specific points are worth knowing before trading. For context on how the regulatory framework governs these contracts and their resolution, see our guide on the CFTC and prediction markets.
- One-decimal precision. The BLS reports CPI to one decimal place in its official news release (for example, 3.2%, not 3.18%). Kalshi's inflation contracts resolve based on this one-decimal official figure. This means a contract asking "Will CPI YoY be above 3.2%?" resolves No if the BLS reports exactly 3.2%, even if the underlying computed figure before rounding was 3.24%. The resolution uses the number as published in the BLS press release, not any more precise internal calculation.
- Resolution source. Contracts on both major sites resolve using the official BLS Consumer Price Index news release for CPI contracts, and the BEA Personal Consumption Expenditures release for PCE contracts. Both agencies publish data at specific times on specific dates, creating a known resolution schedule traders can plan around.
- Government shutdown provisions. If a federal government shutdown prevents the BLS from publishing its CPI report on the scheduled date, inflation contracts typically include a provision extending the resolution deadline. The specific extension terms are written into each contract's resolution criteria and usually extend the deadline until the data is released or up to six months after the expected release date.
- Revision policy. CPI figures are not significantly revised after publication, unlike GDP data. The advance CPI number published by the BLS is effectively the final number for prediction market purposes, which simplifies the resolution picture compared to GDP contracts.
What Moves Inflation Contract Prices
Inflation contracts reprice on both scheduled releases and unscheduled macro events. The monthly rhythm is predictable but the magnitude of moves can be large when data surprises.
- The monthly BLS release itself. The most significant repricing event for inflation contracts is the BLS CPI release, published monthly at 8:30 AM ET. Contracts for the just-reported month resolve immediately. Contracts for future months reprice based on the trend signal from the current print. A significant miss in either direction can move contracts for the next two to three months meaningfully within minutes of the 8:30 release.
- Energy prices. Energy is a significant CPI component and is directly visible to consumers through gasoline prices. When oil prices spike, the pass-through to CPI can be rapid. The Middle Eastern supply disruption in spring 2026 that drove oil above $100 per barrel caused May 2026 CPI to come in at 4.2% YoY, up from 3.8% the prior month, repricing full-year inflation contracts significantly.
- Shelter costs. Shelter is the largest single component of CPI, accounting for roughly a third of the index. It is also one of the stickiest components, changing slowly in response to actual housing market conditions due to how the BLS measures it. Traders who follow housing market data including asking rents have a forward-looking advantage on the shelter component several months ahead.
- Federal Reserve communication. Fed statements and press conferences move inflation contracts because they reveal the Fed's own read on the inflation trajectory and its response function. Hawkish signals tend to suppress future inflation contract prices; dovish signals raise them, by adjusting the market's view on whether policy will succeed in bringing inflation down.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) as a leading signal. The BLS also publishes the PPI, which measures price changes at the wholesale level. Because price changes often flow from producers to consumers over time, a strong PPI print can signal upcoming CPI pressure. PPI typically releases a few days before the CPI report, giving traders an additional data point to position around before the CPI contract resolves.
How to Start Trading Inflation Prediction Markets
The monthly rhythm of inflation markets means there is a new trading opportunity every month with a known resolution date. Having your account set up and funded before the BLS release calendar means you can enter positions at the most informative time rather than reacting after the print.
- Create and verify your account: Sign up on your chosen site and complete KYC with a government-issued ID. Required before depositing or trading.
- Fund your account: Dollar-based sites accept ACH, debit card, and other standard methods. USDC-based sites require a crypto transfer or MoonPay card purchase.
- Find the inflation markets: Navigate to the Economics or Financials category. Look for CPI, inflation, or price index sub-sections. Monthly CPI YoY contracts are usually the most prominent and liquid.
- Read the resolution criteria: Confirm which data source resolves the contract (BLS CPI release or BEA PCE release), what precision is used (one decimal for CPI), and whether there are government shutdown provisions that could delay resolution.
- Choose Yes or No and set your size: Market orders fill immediately. Limit orders let you set your target price. Inflation contracts see heightened activity in the 24 to 48 hours before the BLS release as final positioning occurs.
- Monitor around the release: At 8:30 AM ET on BLS release day, the current month's contract resolves and future month contracts reprice rapidly. If you have forward-month positions, be ready to reassess them in the minutes after the print.
Tips for Trading Inflation Prediction Markets
Inflation markets attract some of the most data-literate traders on prediction market sites. A few habits separate informed trading from random directional guesses.
Know the BLS release calendar in advance
The BLS publishes its monthly CPI release schedule at the start of each calendar year. Every inflation contract has a known resolution date. Having this calendar means you know exactly when positions will resolve and can plan entries and exits around the release rhythm. For a broader look at how economic prediction markets work, see our Kalshi versus Polymarket comparison.
Watch PPI and import price data as leading signals
The BLS PPI releases a few days before CPI each month. A strong PPI print, particularly in goods categories, often signals CPI pressure in the same direction. Import price data is an even earlier signal for goods inflation. Traders who track the full monthly data calendar rather than waiting for CPI day have more time to position.
Understand the one-decimal rounding rule
Because Kalshi and most prediction market sites resolve inflation contracts to the one-decimal precision of the official BLS headline figure, a contract priced at 3.2% resolves differently depending on whether the BLS rounds to 3.2% or 3.3%. Understanding how close the consensus forecast is to a rounding boundary is a specific edge that experienced inflation traders look for in the days before the release.
Be aware of the government shutdown risk
Inflation contracts include provisions for BLS data delays caused by government shutdowns. During actual or anticipated shutdown periods, check the specific deadline provisions in the contract you are holding. A delayed resolution is not the same as a No resolution. For a broader overview of how prediction markets handle edge cases in resolution, see our guide on how prediction market contracts work.
The Bottom Line on Inflation Prediction Markets
Inflation prediction markets are one of the most data-rich categories available on prediction market sites, with a predictable monthly rhythm, known resolution dates, and a direct connection to Federal Reserve policy that makes them relevant to anyone trading economic or financial markets. The Federal Reserve's own research has cited these markets as valuable real-time forecasting tools, which speaks to the quality of price discovery they provide. The monthly CPI release creates a recurring trading event that experienced macro traders build into their regular calendar.
For the full range of economics and financial markets beyond inflation, see our prediction markets overview.
Inflation Prediction Markets FAQ
Which sites offer inflation prediction markets?
Kalshi carries a dedicated inflation category with monthly CPI YoY, CPI MoM, Core CPI, PCE, and annual ceiling contracts. Polymarket has over 100 active CPI markets. Both sites cover the full monthly BLS release cycle and have been cited by the Federal Reserve Board as valuable inflation forecasting tools.
What types of inflation contracts can I trade?
The main types are monthly CPI year-over-year, monthly CPI month-over-month, Core CPI (excluding food and energy), PCE inflation (the Fed's preferred measure), annual ceiling contracts asking whether CPI exceeds a specific level at any point in the year, and international inflation contracts covering UK and Eurozone.
How are inflation contracts settled?
CPI contracts resolve based on the official BLS Consumer Price Index news release, using the headline figure reported to one decimal place. PCE contracts resolve using the BEA PCE release. Resolution occurs when the BLS publishes the relevant monthly data, which happens on a known schedule at 8:30 AM ET.
Why do inflation contracts use one-decimal precision?
The BLS reports CPI to one decimal place in its official press release. Prediction market contracts resolve to this same one-decimal figure. This means contracts close to a rounding boundary can resolve differently depending on whether the underlying figure rounds up or down. The precision level is stated in every contract's resolution criteria.
What happens to inflation contracts during a government shutdown?
If a federal shutdown prevents the BLS from publishing CPI data on the scheduled date, contracts typically include a provision extending the resolution deadline. The specific terms vary by contract but generally extend the deadline until the data is released or up to six months after the expected release date. Always check the resolution criteria before trading during shutdown risk periods.
What was US inflation doing in mid-2026?
May 2026 CPI came in at 4.2% year-over-year, up from 3.8% in April, driven by energy price spikes following Middle Eastern supply disruptions that pushed oil above $100 per barrel. Professional forecasters projected full-year 2026 headline CPI around 3.5% on a quarter-four-over-quarter-four basis as of mid-year.
What is the difference between CPI, Core CPI, and PCE?
CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures the full basket of consumer goods and services including food and energy. Core CPI excludes food and energy to remove volatile components and show underlying inflation trends. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) uses a different basket methodology and is the Federal Reserve's official inflation target measure. The Fed targets 2% PCE inflation, not 2% CPI, which is why PCE contracts attract traders focused on Fed policy outcomes.
