USA vs Paraguay Picks, Odds & Best Bets
Mike Goodpaster Published 11/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup arrives on home soil as the United States open their Group D campaign against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium. Mauricio Pochettino's side begin as co-hosts and group favorites, roared on by a partisan Los Angeles crowd for the first World Cup match on US soil this summer.
Paraguay, back at a World Cup for the first time since 2010, arrive built on the defensive structure that carried them through CONMEBOL qualifying. Under Gustavo Alfaro they are organized, stubborn, and dangerous in transition, exactly the kind of opponent that can make a heavily backed favorite uncomfortable.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each. The USMNT's group-stage path also feeds into the latest World Cup outright winner odds, which are worth tracking as the tournament unfolds.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make the United States narrow favorites at around -105, with the draw near +240 and Paraguay the underdog at roughly +310. The price reflects a real contest rather than a routine home win.
Kalshi's prediction market lands in almost the same place, pricing the USA at 51% to win in 90 minutes, the draw at 29%, and Paraguay at 23%. That is a slight favorite, not a banker, and the fuller draw price tells the story of a pragmatic Paraguay side that grinds games down.
Home advantage, the deeper attacking pool, and three straight wins over Paraguay tilt this toward the hosts. The caution is the USMNT's shaky lead-in form and a defense that leaked goals in its final friendlies.
Verdict: The USA at -105 is the lean, but Paraguay's resistance makes laying a heavier price unappealing.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The total sits at 2.5, with Under 2.5 goals priced around -120 and Over 2.5 near -105. Alfaro's defensive setup and Paraguay's grinding style point toward a lower-event game.
Paraguay's recent competitive matches have repeatedly stayed below three goals, and a 1-0 type scoreline is among the most likely single outcomes here. The USMNT carry enough quality to push the number, but a controlled, cagey opener is the more probable script.
Verdict: Lean Under 2.5 goals at -120, with Paraguay's structure pointing to a tight, low-scoring opener.
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 48¢ and No at 53¢, essentially a coin flip leaning slightly to No. Sportsbooks frame it similarly, with Yes around +105 and No near -130.
The case for Yes is real: both teams have scored in seven of the USA's last eight internationals, and Paraguay posted respectable expected-goals numbers against Mexico and Morocco. Pochettino's high press also leaves space in behind for Paraguay to attack on the break.
The case for No rests on Paraguay's defensive discipline and the chance that the USMNT control the game and keep a clean sheet at home. It is close, but Paraguay's tendency to go quiet against stronger sides nudges this toward No.
Verdict: A slight lean to Both Teams to Score No at 53¢ on Kalshi, or -130 at the sportsbooks, with Paraguay's caution the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
Favorites facing a low block often start slowly, and Paraguay are historically slow World Cup starters. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing the Tie at 46¢, the USA at 37¢, and Paraguay at 20¢.
Sportsbooks frame the same half similarly, with the First-Half Draw around +115, the USA to lead at the break near +150, and Paraguay ahead at half-time out around +450. A level scoreline at the interval is the most probable single outcome.
The USA will likely need time to break Paraguay down, so the value sits with a goalless or level first half rather than an early home breakthrough.
Verdict: First-Half Draw at 46¢ on Kalshi, or +115 at the sportsbooks, is the play, with Paraguay likely to keep it level early.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
The USMNT's attacking leaders headline the scorer market, with Paraguay's forwards offering value at longer prices on the counter. Christian Pulisic is the focal point and carries the highest goal probability in the fixture.
- Christian Pulisic (USA) - +230: The Milan winger is the USMNT's creative hub and set-piece focal point under Pochettino, and he sits one goal short of fourth on the country's all-time scoring list. His movement and finishing make him the first name in this market.
- Folarin Balogun (USA) - +210: The Monaco striker arrives in red-hot form after a strong Ligue 1 campaign, and he scored the winner in the 2-1 friendly victory over Paraguay last November. As the likely central striker, he is the cleanest route to a goal.
- Ricardo Pepi (USA) - +320: A natural penalty-box poacher and a strong option from the bench or in a starting role, Pepi offers value if the USA chase a goal against a deep Paraguay block in the second half.
- Antonio Sanabria (Paraguay) - +450: Paraguay's experienced striker leads the line and is the most likely beneficiary of any rare clear chance La Albirroja create, particularly in transition.
- Julio Enciso (Paraguay) - +500: The pacey, direct attacker is Paraguay's biggest threat on the counter, and his ability to carry the ball into dangerous areas makes him a live longshot at SoFi Stadium.
Verdict: Christian Pulisic at +230 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Balogun at +210 the strongest supporting play.
Injury Report
The United States arrive with a fully fit squad, giving Pochettino fierce competition for places across the front line. Balogun, Pulisic and Malik Tillman are all available, with the main open question sitting at goalkeeper rather than any fitness concern.
Paraguay are also at full strength, with Alfaro reporting no injuries and able to name his preferred settled side. Both managers head into the opener with their first-choice options on the table, removing any late selection doubts.
Weather Forecast
The 9:00 PM ET kickoff in Inglewood projects as warm and dry, with typical Southern California early-summer conditions and little chance of rain. Comfortable, stable weather removes any disruption to either side's game plan.
With no heat extremes expected at the late local kickoff, the conditions favor a clean, fast surface that suits the USMNT's pressing and quick passing. That, in turn, should help the hosts sustain intensity across the full 90 minutes.
How to Watch
- Date: Friday, June 12, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and free on Tubi
This is a defining opener for the hosts, and the goalscoring threat of Pulisic and Balogun also ties into the Golden Boot race across the tournament. For analysis of the rest of the bracket, our World Cup betting previews and picks cover every group and matchup as the action unfolds.
Back the USA to win with the Under and Christian Pulisic anytime as the standout plays on the board.