USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Mike Goodpaster Published 30/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Round of 32 continues as co-hosts the United States face Bosnia and Herzegovina at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. For the host nation, this is where the tournament gets serious, with a place in the last 16 and a knockout's worth of tension on the line.
The USA won Group D on six points, with wins over Paraguay and Australia bracketing a dead-rubber loss to Türkiye in which Mauricio Pochettino rested his starters. Bosnia and Herzegovina came through as one of the best third-placed sides from Group B, finishing on four points after beating Qatar, drawing with Canada and losing heavily to Switzerland.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make the USA heavy favorites at around -220 in 90 minutes, with the draw out near +340 and Bosnia a long shot at roughly +650. On the advancement market, the USA are about -750 to reach the last 16, with Bosnia around +490.
Kalshi's prediction market is similarly emphatic, pricing the USA at 73% to win in regulation, the draw at 20%, and Bosnia at just 10%. The hosts are firmly favored to advance.
The USA have the better players, home advantage, and a louder crowd, with goals through Balogun and creativity from McKennie and a returning Pulisic, against a Bosnia side that has struggled to score. The one note of caution is the USMNT's dismal knockout record, having lost four straight, but their quality should tell against a limited opponent. The standout names on show feature in the best young player markets as the knockouts unfold.
Verdict: The USA at -220 is the clear call, with home advantage and superior quality set to overcome a blunt Bosnia.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Over 2.5 goals favored around -125 and Under 2.5 out near +100. Two leaky defenses pull against the cautious knockout setting.
Bosnia have conceded in all six World Cup matches in their history and in 11 of their last 12 games, while the USA have kept just one clean sheet in their last 11. The case for goals is real, though the Under has landed in six of Bosnia's last eight, so a controlled multi-goal USA win is the likeliest profile.
Verdict: Lean Over 2.5 goals at -125, with two vulnerable defenses pointing to goals, most likely in a controlled USA win.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 45¢ and No at 56¢, a lean toward No. Sportsbooks frame it closer to even, with No around -120 and Yes near +100.
The case for Yes leans on the USA's shaky defensive record, which has produced just one clean sheet in 11 games, plus Bosnia's set-piece threat through Džeko. The hosts can be got at on dead balls.
The case for No rests on Bosnia's blunt attack, with the 40-year-old Džeko yet to score at the tournament and the side generating minimal expected goals from open play. On balance, a Bosnia blank is the slightly more likely outcome.
Verdict: A lean to Both Teams to Score No at 56¢ on Kalshi, or -120 at the sportsbooks, with Bosnia's struggles in front of goal the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
The USA have been fast starters all tournament, scoring a first-half goal in ten of their last 13 games against World Cup teams. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing the USA at 54% to lead at the break, the Tie at 36%, and Bosnia at just 12%.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the USA to lead at the interval around -115, the First-Half Draw near +150, and Bosnia ahead at half-time out around +650. The hosts are favored to be in front by half-time.
Bosnia are unlikely to open the game up early, and the USA's size should help them handle the set-piece threat and keep a first-half clean sheet. Backing the USA first-half lead is the cleanest read for the period, and you can compare prices across the leading sportsbooks before locking in.
Verdict: The USA to lead at half-time, priced at 54¢ on Kalshi or around -115 at the sportsbooks, is the play.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
The USA's attackers headline this market against a leaky Bosnia defense, with the veteran Džeko the value play on the underdog side. Folarin Balogun leads the board.
- Folarin Balogun (USA) - +120: The hosts' first-choice striker and most reliable finisher, Balogun has three goals in his last four for the USA and gets elite service from a returning Pulisic against a Bosnia defense that has conceded in every World Cup match.
- Christian Pulisic (USA) - +135: Back to full fitness after a calf strain, the captain takes the set pieces and consistently threatens the channels, a constant goal threat in front of a home crowd.
- Haji Wright (USA) - +200: A physical forward who stretches defenses, Wright is a strong option in a game the USA should dominate, whether he starts or arrives off the bench.
- Ricardo Pepi (USA) - +210: A natural penalty-box poacher, Pepi offers pressing and movement in behind and is a live option to feature and finish.
- Edin Džeko (Bosnia) - +330: At 40 the nation's all-time leading scorer remains their focal point, and although he is yet to score, his penalty-box instinct makes him Bosnia's clearest route to a goal.
Verdict: Folarin Balogun at +120 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Edin Džeko at +330 the strongest value play for Bosnia.
Injury Report
The USA's biggest boost is the return to full fitness of captain Christian Pulisic, who was eased through the group stage with a calf strain and gives the hosts their creative spark back. Pochettino, who rotated heavily in the dead-rubber Türkiye loss, can field his strongest side built around Balogun, McKennie and Pulisic.
Bosnia report no major injury absentees but rely heavily on the 40-year-old Edin Džeko, who is yet to score at the tournament, with Ermin Mahmić and Kerim Alajbegović their group-stage scorers. Their concern is a defense that has conceded throughout and an attack that has rarely clicked against quality opposition.
Weather Forecast
The 8:00 PM ET kickoff at the open-air Levi's Stadium is expected to bring warm, dry Bay Area conditions with little chance of rain. Comfortable evening weather removes any disruption to either side's game plan.
A dry, true surface suits the USA's quick, high-tempo passing and pressing game, helping them break down a deep Bosnia block. The settled conditions reinforce the hosts' control over tempo across the full 90 minutes.
How to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, July 1, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California (San Francisco Bay Area)
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the leading goalkeeper bets highlights the tournament's standout shot-stoppers ahead of the knockouts. Back the USA to advance with the Over and Folarin Balogun anytime as the standout plays on the board.