USA vs Belgium Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Jesse M. Cox Published 03/07/2026
The 2026 World Cup Round of 16 continues as co-hosts the United States face Belgium at Lumen Field in Seattle. It is one of the most evenly matched ties of the round, with the USMNT chasing a first quarterfinal since 2002 and a raucous home crowd behind them.
The United States advanced with a gritty 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina, holding on with ten men after Folarin Balogun's red card. Belgium rode their luck to get here, trailing Senegal 2-0 with ten minutes left before storming back to win 3-2 in extra time despite being comprehensively outplayed.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make the USA slight favorites at around +155 in 90 minutes, with the draw near +240 and Belgium close behind at roughly +175. On the advancement market, the USA are about -125 to reach the quarterfinals, with Belgium around +105.
Kalshi's prediction market reads it as a near-perfect coin flip, pricing the USA at 37% to win in regulation, Belgium at 36%, and the draw at 29%. There is virtually nothing between them.
The USA have home advantage and a partisan crowd, but the suspension of leading scorer Balogun blunts their attack, while Belgium arrive fortunate but talented, with Doku a major threat to the US right side. Belgium are the higher-ranked side but were badly outplayed by Senegal, so this is a genuine toss-up between a fresh host and a fading golden generation. The standout names on show feature in the best young player markets.
Verdict: A coin flip, with the USA at +155 the marginal lean on home advantage despite Balogun's absence.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Over 2.5 goals favored around -135 and Under 2.5 out near +110. Belgium's leaky defense and both teams' attacking output drive the lean firmly toward goals.
Belgium kept just one clean sheet in the group stage and were carved open repeatedly by Senegal, conceding twice from 2.9 expected goals, while the USA carry a threat through Pulisic and Tillman even without Balogun. With two vulnerable defenses and Belgium's need to attack, an open, high-scoring contest is the most likely outcome.
Verdict: Lean Over 2.5 goals at -135, with Belgium's porous defense and two willing attacks pointing to goals.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 61¢ and No at 40¢, a clear lean toward both finding the net. Sportsbooks agree, with Yes favored around -145 and No out near +115.
The case for Yes is strong and the standout angle on the card: Belgium's defense has leaked throughout the tournament, the USA are dangerous in transition at home, and Belgium's own attack through Lukaku and De Bruyne will always threaten. Both sides should score.
The case for No leans on the USA defending deep and frustrating Belgium, but the Balogun-less attack still carries enough to find the net, and Belgium's back line is a mess. On balance, both teams scoring is the strongest read.
Verdict: A clear lean to Both Teams to Score Yes at 61¢ on Kalshi, or -145 at the sportsbooks, with two leaky defenses the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
A coin-flip knockout tie between two evenly matched sides is likely to start cautiously. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing the Tie at 41¢, the USA at 31¢, and Belgium at 30¢.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the First-Half Draw the favorite around +110, the USA to lead at the break near +200, and Belgium ahead at half-time out around +210. A level scoreline at the interval is the most probable single outcome.
Neither side projects to take firm control before the break, so the value sits with a level first half. The standout names on show feature in the player-of-the-tournament market as the knockouts intensify.
Verdict: First-Half Draw at 41¢ on Kalshi, or +110 at the sportsbooks, is the play, with a level opening 45 the most likely.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
With Balogun suspended, the USA attack reshapes around Pulisic, while Belgium's forwards headline against a solid US defense. The market splits between two evenly matched sides.
- Christian Pulisic (USA) - +240: With Balogun suspended, the captain becomes the undisputed focal point of the US attack, taking the set pieces and carrying the biggest goal threat in front of a home crowd.
- Romelu Lukaku (Belgium) - +200: Belgium's all-time leading scorer got on the board against Senegal and is the natural penalty-box presence, their most likely scorer against a US defense that will be tested.
- Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium) - +290: Belgium's creator-in-chief arrives late into the box and is a constant set-piece threat, a genuine goal threat as well as a provider.
- Haji Wright (USA) - +290: Likely to lead the line in Balogun's absence, the physical forward offers pace in behind and is a strong value option to feature and finish.
- Malik Tillman (USA) - +330: Fresh off a free-kick goal against Bosnia, the attacking midfielder arrives in the box and is a live scorer play in a game the USA must chase.
Verdict: Christian Pulisic at +240 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Romelu Lukaku at +200 the strongest play on the Belgium side.
Injury Report
The United States face a major blow with leading scorer Folarin Balogun suspended after his red card against Bosnia, a decision they cannot appeal, forcing Mauricio Pochettino to reshape his attack around Christian Pulisic with Haji Wright or Ricardo Pepi likely to lead the line. The rest of the side is fit, with Tillman, Weah and McKennie providing attacking support.
Belgium report no major fresh injury concerns and can call on their experienced core of Lukaku, De Bruyne and Doku, though the defense that Senegal exposed remains a serious worry. Rudi Garcia's side survived on fortune in the last round and will need a far sharper performance to see off a motivated host.
Weather Forecast
The 8:00 PM ET kickoff at the partially covered Lumen Field is expected to bring mild, comfortable Pacific Northwest conditions with a low chance of disruptive weather. Pleasant conditions should suit both sides.
A dry, true surface suits the USA's high-tempo pressing and Belgium's quick combination play alike, only adding to the goals-friendly profile of this tie. The settled conditions keep the focus squarely on the knockout tension and the raucous Seattle crowd.
How to Watch
- Date: Monday, July 6, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the best soccer betting sites compares the top prices and features for the knockout rounds. Back both teams to score with the Over and Christian Pulisic anytime as the standout plays on the board.