Türkiye vs USA Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Mike Goodpaster Published 23/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Group D campaign closes with Türkiye facing co-hosts the United States at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. The stakes are unusual: the USA have already won the group and sealed a knockout spot, while Türkiye are already eliminated, making this a dead rubber on paper.
That context flips the usual dynamic. Mauricio Pochettino is expected to rest key men, including Christian Pulisic and several players at risk of suspension, while Vincenzo Montella's full-strength Türkiye play for pride and a positive send-off through Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks price this as a near coin flip, with the USA around +150, Türkiye close behind at roughly +150, and the draw near +285. The tight market reflects expected USA rotation against a motivated Türkiye.
Kalshi's prediction market leans to the hosts, pricing the USA at 53% to win in 90 minutes, Türkiye at 27%, and the draw at 23%. The home-soil energy keeps the USMNT favored even in a changed side.
The USA carry the crowd and depth, but a heavily rotated lineup against a full-strength Türkiye built around Güler and Yıldız levels this considerably. With nothing on the line for the hosts and everything to prove for Türkiye, this is a genuine toss-up, and it is worth comparing the latest World Cup welcome offers before backing either side.
Verdict: A coin flip, but Türkiye at +150 carries value as the full-strength, motivated side against a rotated USA.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Over 2.5 goals priced around -125 and Under 2.5 near +105. The market and the tactical picture pull in slightly different directions.
The case for the Over is the attacking talent on show and a rotated USA defense potentially less settled. The case for the Under is stronger here, though: group deciders with reduced stakes and a heavily changed home side often produce a controlled, low-event grind rather than an open game.
Verdict: A narrow lean to Under 2.5 goals at +105, with rotation and reduced stakes pointing to a measured contest.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 57¢ and No at 43¢, a lean toward both finding the net. Sportsbooks frame it closer to even, with Yes around -120 and No near +100.
The case for Yes leans on Türkiye's creative quality through Güler and Yıldız against a reshuffled USA back line, with the hosts' attack still carrying threat even rotated. Both sides have the talent to score.
The case for No rests on the chance the game settles into a cagey, low-event rhythm with little riding on it. On balance, the attacking quality on show edges this toward both teams netting.
Verdict: A lean to Both Teams to Score Yes at 57¢ on Kalshi, or -120 at the sportsbooks, with creativity at both ends the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
A dead rubber with a rotated home side could start slowly, with neither team forcing the issue early. Kalshi's first-half market reflects a close call, pricing the Tie at 40¢, the USA at 39¢, and Türkiye at 22¢.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the First-Half Draw the favorite around +115, the USA to lead at the break near +150, and Türkiye ahead at half-time out around +360. A level scoreline at the interval is the most probable single outcome.
Türkiye's quality means an early goal is possible, but the muted stakes could keep the opening 45 level. Türkiye's young creators Güler and Yıldız are among the names worth tracking in the race for the best young player award.
Verdict: First-Half Draw at 40¢ on Kalshi, or +115 at the sportsbooks, is the play, with both teams likely to feel each other out early.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
With the USA expected to rotate, this market tilts toward Türkiye's full-strength attack, with fringe USA forwards offering value. Kerem Aktürkoğlu headlines the board.
- Kerem Aktürkoğlu (Türkiye) - +200: Türkiye's most prolific recent scorer leads a full-strength attack against a reshuffled USA defense, making him the most likely scorer on the pitch.
- Kenan Yıldız (Türkiye) - +260: The Juventus forward brings dribbling and finishing from the left and is a strong option to unlock a changed USA back line.
- Arda Güler (Türkiye) - +270: Türkiye's creative hub is a threat between the lines and from distance, with a genuine goal threat against a rotated opponent.
- Ricardo Pepi (USA) - +240: A natural penalty-box poacher likely to start with the front line rested, Pepi is the USMNT's most logical route to a goal in a changed side.
- Haji Wright (USA) - +280: A physical forward in line for minutes amid rotation, Wright is a live value option to feature and finish in front of the home crowd.
Verdict: Kerem Aktürkoğlu at +200 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Ricardo Pepi at +240 the strongest play on the USA side.
Injury Report
The United States are not dealing with injuries so much as deliberate rotation, with Pochettino expected to rest Christian Pulisic and protect Chris Richards, Antonee Robinson, Tyler Adams and Folarin Balogun from yellow-card suspension risk ahead of the knockouts. That opens the door for fringe players such as Pepi and Haji Wright to feature heavily.
Türkiye, by contrast, travel with every first-choice player fit and available, and Vincenzo Montella has every reason to field his strongest side for pride. Güler, Yıldız and Aktürkoğlu spearhead a full-strength attack against a changed USA lineup.
Weather Forecast
The 10:00 PM ET kickoff at SoFi Stadium will be played under the venue's fixed roof, with warm, dry Los Angeles conditions outside and no weather disruption expected. A comfortable, controlled environment is likely.
A dry, true surface suits Türkiye's quick passing and combination play, helping their creative players dictate against a reshuffled USA side. The neutral conditions keep the focus squarely on the contrast between Türkiye's motivation and the USA's rotation.
How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California (Los Angeles)
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the leading sportsbooks compares the best prices and features for the tournament. Back Türkiye to edge it with the Under and Kerem Aktürkoğlu anytime as the standout plays on the board.