Türkiye vs Paraguay Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Mike Goodpaster Published 17/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Group D campaign reaches a do-or-die second matchday as Türkiye face Paraguay at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. Both sides lost their openers, turning this into an eliminator in all but name, with the loser all but out before the final group game.
Türkiye were beaten 2-0 by Australia despite dominating possession, undone by poor finishing, while Paraguay were dismantled 4-1 by the United States. With the USA and Australia already on three points, three points here is close to mandatory for both.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make Türkiye narrow favorites at around +100, with the draw near +255 and Paraguay the underdog at roughly +330. The price reflects Türkiye's superior attacking quality.
Kalshi's prediction market reads it as almost a coin flip at the top, pricing Türkiye at 49% to win in 90 minutes, the draw at 29%, and Paraguay at 25%. The Crescent-Stars are favored, but only just.
Türkiye carry the deeper attacking talent through Calhanoğlu, Güler, Yıldız and Aktürkoğlu, against a Paraguay back line that shipped four against the USA. Their finishing let them down against Australia, but the quality gap should tell, and it is worth lining up the current tournament welcome offers before backing the favorite.
Verdict: Türkiye at +100 is the lean, with their greater attacking quality edging a tense survival match.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, and the market is split: Under 2.5 goals is favored at some books around -150, while Over 2.5 is available near +120. The tension reflects two competing narratives.
The case for the Under is two cautious, defensively minded sides wary of an early mistake in a must-win game. The case for the Over is stronger here, though: a draw is close to useless for either team, so both must commit forward, and Türkiye's attack against Paraguay's leaky defense points to goals.
Verdict: Lean Over 2.5 goals at +120, with both sides needing a win and forced to take risks.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 51¢ and No at 50¢, a narrow lean toward both finding the net. Sportsbooks agree, with Yes favored around -120 and No out near +100.
The case for Yes is strong: both teams must attack to survive, Türkiye carry obvious threat through Güler and Aktürkoğlu, and Paraguay showed against the USA they will push forward through Enciso and Sanabria. Neither can afford to sit back.
The case for No leans on the chance one side freezes under the elimination pressure and fails to score. On balance, the need for goals at both ends points to Yes.
Verdict: A lean to Both Teams to Score Yes at 51¢ on Kalshi, or -120 at the sportsbooks, with both sides forced to chase the game.
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First-Half Moneyline
Even in a must-win game, both sides may probe cautiously before the game opens up. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing the Tie at 45¢, Türkiye at 36¢, and Paraguay at 21¢.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the First-Half Draw the favorite around +110, Türkiye to lead at the break near +160, and Paraguay ahead at half-time out around +425. A level scoreline at the interval is the most probable single outcome.
Türkiye's quality means an early goal is possible, but the high stakes could keep the opening 45 cagey before both sides open up. The value sits with a level first half, and Türkiye's young creators are among the names to watch in the breakout-star award markets.
Verdict: First-Half Draw at 45¢ on Kalshi, or +110 at the sportsbooks, is the play, with both teams likely to feel each other out early.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
Türkiye's attackers headline this market against a leaky Paraguay defense, with Paraguay's forwards offering value at longer prices. Kerem Aktürkoğlu leads the board.
- Kerem Aktürkoğlu (Türkiye) - +220: Türkiye's most prolific recent scorer carries the attacking burden alongside Güler and Yıldız, and against a Paraguay line that conceded four to the USA he is the most likely scorer.
- Arda Güler (Türkiye) - +290: The Real Madrid playmaker tested Australia's keeper repeatedly with eight shots in the opener, and his quality between the lines makes him a strong goal threat.
- Kenan Yıldız (Türkiye) - +290: The Juventus forward brings dribbling and finishing from the left and is a live option to unlock a compact defense.
- Antonio Sanabria (Paraguay) - +333: The Torino striker scored Paraguay's only goal against the USA and remains the cleanest finisher in the squad, their best route to a goal.
- Julio Enciso (Paraguay) - +400: Paraguay's most creative attacker provided the assist in the opener and is a live longshot to carry the ball into dangerous areas and finish.
Verdict: Kerem Aktürkoğlu at +220 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Antonio Sanabria at +333 the strongest value play for Paraguay.
Injury Report
Türkiye arrive close to full strength, with Vincenzo Montella expected to keep faith in the side that dominated possession against Australia, built around Calhanoğlu, Güler and Aktürkoğlu. Their issue is converting chances rather than any fitness concern.
Paraguay are also without major reported absences and benefit from an extra day of rest after their Friday defeat. Gustavo Alfaro can field his preferred setup with the experienced Gustavo Gómez anchoring a defense that must be far sharper than it was against the USA.
Weather Forecast
The late kickoff at the open-air Levi's Stadium is expected to bring warm, dry Bay Area conditions with little chance of rain. Comfortable evening weather removes any disruption to either side's game plan.
A dry, true surface suits Türkiye's quick passing and combination play through midfield, helping them break down Paraguay's block. The settled conditions keep the focus on the contrast between Türkiye's quality and Paraguay's need to defend better.
How to Watch
- Date: Friday, June 19, 2026
- Time: 11:00 PM ET
- Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California (San Francisco Bay Area)
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the leading soccer sportsbooks compares the top prices and features for the tournament. Back Türkiye to win with the Over and Kerem Aktürkoğlu anytime as the standout plays on the board.