Tunisia vs Netherlands Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Jesse M. Cox Published 23/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Group F campaign closes with Tunisia facing Netherlands at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The two sides arrive at opposite ends of the table: the Dutch are chasing top spot, while Tunisia are already eliminated and playing only for pride.
Netherlands sit top on four points after a draw with Japan and a 5-1 thrashing of Sweden, with a win here sealing first place. Tunisia, bottom on zero points and a goal difference of minus eight after heavy defeats and a mid-tournament coaching change, face a daunting finale against a side scoring freely.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make Netherlands overwhelming favorites at around -670, with the draw out near +850 and Tunisia a remote long shot at roughly +2300. The talent and form gap is vast.
Kalshi's prediction market is even more emphatic, pricing Netherlands at 88% to win in 90 minutes, the draw at 10%, and Tunisia at just 4%. There is no realistic path to a Tunisia result on the numbers.
Netherlands have scored nine goals in two games and carry attacking variety across the squad, while Tunisia have conceded nine, won none of their last five, and are reeling from a managerial change. Even with rotation, the Dutch should win comfortably, so the interest lives in the goals and margin markets, and it pays to compare the current World Cup sign-up offers before backing such a short price.
Verdict: Netherlands at -670 is a near formality, with a winning margin or goals angle the only sensible value route.
Over/Under
The total is set high at 3.25, with Over priced around +100 and Under near -120. The Netherlands' firepower and Tunisia's leaky defense drive the elevated line.
The Dutch have scored seven goals in two matches and Tunisia have conceded nine, with both of Tunisia's games producing at least five goals combined. With Tunisia needing to attack and leaving space in behind, an open, high-scoring contest is the most likely outcome.
Verdict: Lean Over 3.25 goals at +100, with the Dutch attack set to punish a porous Tunisia defense.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 37¢ and No at 64¢, a firm lean toward No. Sportsbooks agree, with No favored around -150 and Yes out near +120.
The case for Yes leans on Tunisia having to throw bodies forward and the fact they did find the net against Japan through a defender. They will commit to attack with nothing to lose.
The case for No rests on Tunisia's blunt attack, with just one goal in two matches, and the Dutch defense's ability to keep a clean sheet against limited opposition. A Netherlands win to nil is firmly in play.
Verdict: A lean to Both Teams to Score No at 64¢ on Kalshi, or -150 at the sportsbooks, with Tunisia's lack of cutting edge the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
The Netherlands struck twice inside the opening 17 minutes against Sweden and may again start fast, even with changes. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing Netherlands at 66% to lead at the break, the Tie at 28%, and Tunisia at just 6%.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the Netherlands to lead at the interval around -185, the First-Half Draw near +210, and Tunisia ahead at the break a remote +1200. The Dutch are strongly favored to be in front by half-time.
Tunisia's disarray makes an early concession likely, and the Netherlands' quality should tell quickly. The Dutch youngsters in their deep squad are among the names worth tracking in the best young player markets this summer.
Verdict: Netherlands to lead at half-time, priced at 66¢ on Kalshi or around -185 at the sportsbooks, is the play.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
The Netherlands' attackers dominate this market against a porous Tunisia defense, with rotation the only question over who starts. Cody Gakpo headlines the board.
- Cody Gakpo (Netherlands) - +120: One of the most dangerous wide forwards at the tournament, Gakpo has been a consistent threat throughout the group stage and should find space early against a Tunisia defense that has been repeatedly exposed.
- Memphis Depay (Netherlands) - +150: The Netherlands' all-time leading scorer remains among the tournament's most threatening forwards and is a reliable penalty-box presence whenever he features.
- Donyell Malen (Netherlands) - +200: A pacey, direct option who offers a goal threat off the bench or in a start, Malen is well placed to convert in a game the Dutch should dominate.
- Brian Brobbey (Netherlands) - +210: A strong central striker likely to feature in a rotated line, Brobbey is a live option to lead the line and finish against a tiring defense.
- Hannibal Mejbri (Tunisia) - +650: Tunisia's energetic midfielder drives what little attacking threat they carry and is their best longshot to find the net from a midfield run.
Verdict: Cody Gakpo at +120 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Memphis Depay at +150 the strongest supporting play.
Injury Report
Netherlands arrive with a deep, largely fit squad, with Memphis Depay the most experienced player on the pitch and Ronald Koeman likely to rotate while protecting key men ahead of the knockouts. Even a changed Dutch side retains significant attacking quality through Gakpo, Malen and Brobbey.
Tunisia's bigger issues are morale and disruption rather than injury, with Hervé Renard having taken over from Sabri Lamouchi after the opening match. No major injury or suspension concerns have been reported, but two heavy defeats and a coaching change leave team selection and motivation in question, with Skhiri and Mejbri anchoring the side.
Weather Forecast
The 7:00 PM ET kickoff at the open-air Arrowhead Stadium is expected to bring warm, dry early-summer conditions with a low chance of rain. Comfortable evening weather should suit the favorites.
A dry, true surface suits the Netherlands' quick passing and combination play, helping them exploit the space Tunisia must leave as they chase the game. The settled conditions reinforce the goals-friendly lean on this lopsided fixture.
How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the top-rated sportsbooks compares the best prices and features for the tournament. Back the Netherlands to win with the Over and Cody Gakpo anytime as the standout plays on the board.