Spain vs Belgium Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026 Quarter-Finals
Mike Goodpaster Published 07/07/2026
The 2026 World Cup quarterfinals continue with a heavyweight tie as Spain face Belgium at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. La Roja arrive as one of the tournament's form sides, yet to concede a goal, against a Belgium side riding the momentum of their best display of the summer.
Spain reached the last eight with a 1-0 win over Portugal, a late Mikel Merino goal extending their clean-sheet run to five straight games. Belgium produced their finest performance of the tournament in the previous round, routing the United States 4-1 behind a Charles De Ketelaere brace, and now face a far sterner test.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make Spain clear favorites at around -160 in 90 minutes, with the draw near +290 and Belgium the underdog at roughly +475. On the advancement market, Spain are about -320 to reach the semifinals, with Belgium around +245.
Kalshi's prediction market lands in the same range, pricing Spain at 61% to win in regulation, the draw at 24%, and Belgium at 18%. La Roja are firmly favored to advance.
Spain have not conceded a single goal across five matches and are unbeaten in 35, with a possession game that starves opponents of the ball, while Belgium's 4-1 win over the USA flattered them, coming off American defensive errors against a side that leaked badly to Senegal. Spain have also won the last five World Cup meetings between the nations, so their control and defensive record point one way. The standout names on show feature in the player-of-the-tournament market.
Verdict: Spain at -160 is the clear call, with their historic clean-sheet run and control set to overcome a fortunate Belgium.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Under 2.5 goals favored around -130 and Over 2.5 out near +110. Spain's remarkable defensive record and their controlled style skew the line low.
Spain have conceded zero goals all tournament and allowed under one expected goal in every match, smothering games through possession, while Belgium's attacking output against the USA is unlikely to repeat against a far better defense. A controlled, low-scoring Spain win fits the most likely script.
Verdict: Lean Under 2.5 goals at -130, with Spain's clean-sheet run and possession control pointing to a low-scoring quarterfinal.
Both Teams to Score (First Half)
Kalshi prices First-Half Both Teams to Score Yes at just 22¢ and No at 84¢, an emphatic lean toward No. Sportsbooks tell the same story, with first-half No a heavy favorite around -450 and Yes out near +300.
Spain have not conceded a single goal all tournament, let alone in a first half, and their patient buildup rarely produces an open, end-to-end opening period. Belgium finding the net inside the first 45 against this defense is a remote outcome.
With Spain controlling possession and Belgium likely to sit deeper than they did against the USA, both teams scoring before the break is unlikely. Goals, if they come, are far more probable after the interval.
Verdict: Lean First-Half Both Teams to Score No at 84¢ on Kalshi, or around -450 at the sportsbooks, with a tight opening period the most probable.
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First-Half Moneyline
Spain build patiently and rarely race out of the blocks, so a cagey opening is likely. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing Spain at 44% to lead at the break, the Tie at 40%, and Belgium at 17%.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the First-Half Draw the favorite around +115, Spain to lead at the break near +130, and Belgium ahead at half-time out around +400. The market splits closely between a Spain lead and a level half.
Spain's quality means an early goal is possible, but their measured approach and Belgium's caution could keep the opening 45 level. Spain's clean-sheet run makes goalkeeper Unai Simón one to note among the leading goalkeeper bets at the tournament.
Verdict: A coin flip between Spain to lead at half-time and the First-Half Draw, with the draw a live call near +115.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
Spain's attackers headline this market, with Belgium's in-form forwards offering value on the underdog side. Mikel Oyarzabal leads the board.
- Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain) - +160: Spain's most reliable striker profile and the clearest route to a goal, Oyarzabal provides the central-channel threat to break down a Belgium defense that has looked vulnerable all tournament.
- Lamine Yamal (Spain) - +175: Spain's teenage talisman is their chief creator and a constant one-v-one threat on the right, a genuine goal threat as well as a provider.
- Ferran Torres (Spain) - +200: A sharp finisher who reads the box well, Torres is a strong value option to convert the chances Spain create in a game they should control.
- Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium) - +290: Fresh off a brace against the USA, the in-form attacker is Belgium's most likely scorer and the best value play on the underdog side.
- Romelu Lukaku (Belgium) - +320: Belgium's all-time leading scorer remains the natural penalty-box presence and a live threat if the Red Devils can manufacture a rare clear chance.
Verdict: Mikel Oyarzabal at +160 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Charles De Ketelaere at +290 the strongest value play for Belgium.
Injury Report
Spain arrive without significant injury concerns, allowing Luis de la Fuente to field the settled side that has yet to concede, built around Yamal, Oyarzabal and Pedri, with Mikel Merino the late hero against Portugal. Their unbeaten 35-game run and clean-sheet record make them one of the most complete sides left in the field.
Belgium are also without major reported absences and can call on the attacking talent of De Bruyne, Doku, Lukaku and the in-form De Ketelaere. Their concern is a defense that Senegal carved open before the USA errors flattered them, a serious worry against Spain's possession game and movement.
Weather Forecast
The kickoff at SoFi Stadium will be played under the venue's fixed roof, with warm, dry Los Angeles conditions outside and no weather disruption expected. A comfortable, controlled environment is likely.
A dry, true surface suits Spain's possession-based passing game and helps them dominate the ball and dictate tempo. The neutral conditions reinforce the favorites controlling the rhythm across the full 90 minutes.
How to Watch
- Date: Friday, July 10, 2026
- Time: Kickoff time ET to be confirmed
- Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California (Los Angeles)
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the best soccer betting sites compares the top prices and features for the knockout rounds. Back Spain to advance with the Under and Mikel Oyarzabal anytime as the standout plays on the board.