Senegal vs Iraq Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Jesse M. Cox Published 24/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Group I campaign closes with Senegal facing Iraq at BMO Field in Toronto, a meeting of two sides still searching for their first point of the tournament. With France and Norway already through, this is effectively a knockout game for both winless teams.
Senegal lost narrowly to France and Norway, scoring in both, while Iraq were beaten 4-1 by Norway and 3-0 by France and are yet to find the net. A win keeps slim best-third-place hopes alive but will need favorable results elsewhere, while defeat ends the campaign outright.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make Senegal overwhelming favorites at around -450, with the draw out near +475 and Iraq a remote long shot at roughly +1200. The gap in pedigree is wide.
Kalshi's prediction market is similarly emphatic, pricing Senegal at 79% to win in 90 minutes, the draw at 14%, and Iraq at just 8%. The Teranga Lions are firmly favored to claim a first win.
Senegal carry vastly superior squad depth through Jackson, Mané and Ismaïla Sarr, and pushed both France and Norway close before losing narrowly. Iraq have struggled against quality all tournament and remain goalless, so the value lives in the goals and scorer markets rather than the short straight price, and Iraq's emerging players are among those worth a look in the breakout-talent award race.
Verdict: Senegal at -450 is the clear call, with a goals or scorer angle the sharper value route than the short straight price.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Over 2.5 goals favored around -175 and Under 2.5 out near +135. Senegal's attacking quality and both sides' need to chase drive the lean toward goals.
Senegal scored in both their defeats and will dominate possession against an Iraq defense that has conceded seven goals in two games. With both teams needing to attack to keep their tournaments alive, an open contest with goals is the most likely outcome.
Verdict: Lean Over 2.5 goals at -175, with Senegal's firepower set to break down a leaky Iraq defense.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 45¢ and No at 56¢, a lean toward No. Sportsbooks agree, with No favored around -150 and Yes out near +110.
The case for Yes leans on Iraq being forced to attack in a must-win game and a possible defensive lapse from Senegal. They will have to take risks to stay alive.
The case for No is stronger here: Iraq have failed to score in either group match and have managed little against quality opposition, while Senegal can keep a clean sheet behind Koulibaly. An Iraq blank is firmly in play.
Verdict: A lean to Both Teams to Score No at 56¢ on Kalshi, or -150 at the sportsbooks, with Iraq's goalless tournament the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
Iraq's pattern this tournament has been to concede early then sit deep, which points to Senegal pressing for a fast start. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing Senegal at 60% to lead at the break, the Tie at 33%, and Iraq at just 9%.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with Senegal to lead at the interval around -160, the First-Half Draw near +200, and Iraq ahead at half-time out around +900. The Teranga Lions are favored to be in front by half-time.
Iraq's organization could delay the opener, but Senegal's quality and territorial dominance should tell early. Backing the Senegal first-half lead is the cleanest read for the period.
Verdict: Senegal to lead at half-time, priced at 60¢ on Kalshi or around -160 at the sportsbooks, is the play.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
Senegal's attackers dominate this market against a leaky Iraq defense, with Iraq's lone striker the value play on the underdog side. Nicolas Jackson leads the board.
- Nicolas Jackson (Senegal) - +100: Senegal's most consistent source of danger across the group stage, the striker will see plenty of the ball in dangerous areas and should find the gaps an Iraq back four has been unable to close.
- Sadio Mané (Senegal) - +120: The captain remains the player Iraq's defense will be most preoccupied with, and given how one-sided the territorial picture should be, his price to score offers value whether he starts or features off the bench.
- Ismaïla Sarr (Senegal) - +160: Already with two goals at this tournament, the in-form winger is a constant threat from the right flank and a strong supporting scorer pick.
- Habib Diarra (Senegal) - +280: A dynamic midfielder who arrives in the box, Diarra offers another route to goal in a game Senegal should dominate.
- Aymen Hussein (Iraq) - +650: Iraq's main striker is their best longshot to finally find the net if the Lions of Mesopotamia create a rare clear chance.
Verdict: Nicolas Jackson at +100 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Aymen Hussein at +650 the longshot value play for Iraq.
Injury Report
Senegal arrive with a full-strength squad, with captain Kalidou Koulibaly anchoring the defense and Sadio Mané leading an attack that also features Jackson and Ismaïla Sarr. The main selection call is whether to start the veteran Mané or use him from the bench, with the squad carrying genuine quality across every position.
Iraq are also without major reported absences but face the far bigger problem of form and a goal drought, having lost three straight while conceding heavily. Their plan will again center on a deep, disciplined block, though their must-win situation forces a more attacking approach than they have shown so far.
Weather Forecast
The 3:00 PM ET kickoff at the open-air BMO Field is expected to bring warm, comfortable early-summer conditions with a low chance of rain. Pleasant weather should suit both sides without disruption.
A dry, true surface suits Senegal's quick, direct attacking play and the runs of Jackson and Sarr in behind, helping them break down a deep Iraq block. The settled conditions reinforce the goals-friendly lean on this fixture.
How to Watch
- Date: Friday, June 26, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET
- Location: BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
Before backing the favorite, it is worth comparing the current tournament welcome offers to secure the best price, and for where to place these bets, see our guide to the leading sportsbooks. Back Senegal to win with the Over and Nicolas Jackson anytime as the standout plays on the board.