Paraguay vs Australia Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Jesse M. Cox Published 23/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Group D campaign reaches a tense finale as Paraguay face Australia at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. Both sides arrive on three points, but their contrasting goal differences mean the stakes are very different in this winner-take-it-all decider.
Australia sit second with a goal difference of zero and would advance with a draw, while Paraguay, third at minus two after a 4-1 loss to the United States, must win to keep their hopes alive. That asymmetry shapes everything: Paraguay have to chase the game, while Australia can play with the security of knowing a point likely sends them through.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make Paraguay slight favorites at around +120, with the draw close behind near +130 and Australia the underdog at roughly +255. This is one of the tightest three-way markets of the matchday.
Kalshi's prediction market actually makes the draw the most likely single outcome, pricing it at 44%, with Paraguay at 33% and Australia at 25%. That pricing reflects how cagey a game between two disciplined sides is likely to be.
Paraguay favor controlled buildup and carry counter-attacking threat through Enciso and Almirón, but Australia are physical, organized, and built to disrupt rhythm, with the luxury of needing only a draw. The pressure to score sits squarely on Paraguay, and our guide to the top soccer betting sites can help you find the best price in such a close market.
Verdict: Paraguay at +120 is the lean as the side that must win, but the draw is a genuinely live outcome that suits Australia perfectly.
Over/Under
The total sits low, with Under 2.5 goals favored and the best Over 2 goals price around +125 against Under 2 at roughly -150. Two disciplined, defensively minded sides skew the line toward a tight game.
Both teams reached this point on the back of narrow 1-0 and 2-0 wins, and a high-stakes decider between two organized defenses rarely opens up. A cagey, low-scoring contest settled by a single goal is the most likely script.
Verdict: Lean Under 2.5 goals, with two structured sides and big stakes pointing to a low-scoring decider.
Both Teams to Score (First Half)
Kalshi prices First-Half Both Teams to Score Yes at just 17¢ and No at 84¢, an emphatic lean toward No. Sportsbooks tell the same story, with first-half No a heavy favorite around -450 and Yes out near +300.
With two cautious sides likely to feel each other out in a must-not-lose game, both teams scoring inside the opening 45 minutes is a remote outcome. Goals, if they come, are far more likely to arrive after the interval once the game stretches.
This fits the broader low-scoring lean on the fixture, where neither attack projects to click early against a disciplined opponent. Australia in particular will be content to keep the first half quiet.
Verdict: Lean First-Half Both Teams to Score No at 84¢ on Kalshi, or around -450 at the sportsbooks, with a quiet opening period the most probable.
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First-Half Moneyline
Given Paraguay's tendency to defend deep and Australia's caution, the opening 45 minutes project as the cagiest phase of the match. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing the Tie at 53¢, Paraguay at 27¢, and Australia at 21¢.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the First-Half Draw the clear favorite around +100, Paraguay to lead at the break near +240, and Australia ahead at half-time out around +320. A level scoreline at the interval is comfortably the most probable single outcome.
Neither side projects to take firm control before the break, so the value sits with a level first half. Both well-drilled defenses also make this one to note among the standout goalkeeper and clean-sheet bets at the tournament.
Verdict: First-Half Draw at 53¢ on Kalshi, or +100 at the sportsbooks, is the play, with both teams likely to keep it level early.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
With a tight, low-scoring game expected, the scorer market offers value on the most involved attackers. Paraguay's creators headline the board, with Australia's forwards a step behind on price.
- Antonio Sanabria (Paraguay) - +275: Paraguay's physical reference point up front, Sanabria is the focal point of their attack and their most likely scorer if they create the clear chances a must-win game demands.
- Julio Enciso (Paraguay) - +320: Paraguay's most creative attacker provides their spark from wide areas and is a strong candidate to score or carry the ball into dangerous positions against a deep Australia block.
- Miguel Almirón (Paraguay) - +330: The direct, hard-running winger and set-piece taker carries a genuine goal threat and is central to Paraguay's attacking plan.
- Nestory Irankunda (Australia) - +400: The pacey young winger is Australia's most dynamic attacking threat on the counter and their best value play to find the net.
- Mitchell Duke (Australia) - +450: Australia's experienced target striker is their main aerial threat and a live longshot to convert a set-piece or transition chance in a game they may control.
Verdict: Antonio Sanabria at +275 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Nestory Irankunda at +400 the strongest value play for Australia.
Injury Report
Paraguay arrive without major reported absences and can name their preferred organized 4-2-3-1 built around Sanabria up top and the creativity of Enciso and Almirón. Gustavo Alfaro's side will need to balance their defensive structure with the attacking urgency a must-win game demands.
Australia are also at full strength, with veterans Mathew Ryan and Mathew Leckie among the experienced core and Tony Popovic able to field the disciplined, physical setup that won them four straight qualifiers. Their challenge is managing the game from a position of relative safety rather than any availability concern.
Weather Forecast
The 10:00 PM ET kickoff at the open-air Levi's Stadium is expected to bring warm, dry Bay Area conditions with little chance of rain. Comfortable evening weather removes any disruption to either side's game plan.
A dry, true surface suits Paraguay's measured buildup and Australia's quick, direct counters alike. The settled conditions keep the focus on the high-stakes tactical battle between two well-organized sides.
How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
- Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California (San Francisco Bay Area)
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
Before backing a side in this tight decider, it is worth checking the current World Cup welcome offers to secure the best price. Back Paraguay to edge it with the Under and Antonio Sanabria anytime as the standout plays on the board.