Panama vs Croatia Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Mike Goodpaster Published 22/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Group L campaign reaches a do-or-die second matchday as Panama face Croatia at BMO Field in Toronto. Both sides lost their openers, turning this into a virtual knockout, with the loser all but eliminated from the round of 32.
Croatia were beaten 4-2 by England, leaving the 2018 finalists with a goal-difference deficit to repair, while Panama were edged 1-0 by Ghana through a 95th-minute goal and are yet to score at this World Cup. The pressure is heavy on both, but Croatia's superior quality makes them clear favorites.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make Croatia clear favorites at around -185, with the draw near +300 and Panama the underdog at roughly +580. The price reflects Croatia's pedigree and midfield quality.
Kalshi's prediction market lands in the same range, pricing Croatia at 64% to win in 90 minutes, the draw at 24%, and Panama at just 14%. The Vatreni are firmly favored to respond.
Croatia's midfield axis of Modrić and Kovačić is the engine that should unlock a compact Panama side that has not scored a competitive goal at this World Cup. Panama will sit deep and look to frustrate, but Croatia's urgency after their England loss should produce a more structured performance, and it pays to compare the current World Cup sign-up offers before backing the favorite.
Verdict: Croatia at -185 is the lean, with their midfield class and World Cup pedigree set to overcome a blunt Panama.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Under 2.5 goals favored around -112 and Over 2.5 near +106. Panama's conservative shape and goalless start skew the line low.
Panama set up to absorb pressure and have failed to score at this tournament, while Croatia may control the game and win without fully opening up. A 1-0 or 2-0 Croatia win fits the most likely script better than a high-scoring affair.
Verdict: Lean Under 2.5 goals at -112, with Panama's defensive setup and blunt attack pointing to a tight game.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 48¢ and No at 53¢, essentially a coin flip leaning slightly to No. Sportsbooks frame it similarly, with No favored around -130 and Yes out near +105.
The case for Yes leans on Panama needing to push forward in a must-win game, with Díaz and Fajardo capable of a moment on the counter. They had 11 shots against Ghana despite the loss.
The case for No rests on Panama's failure to score at this tournament and Croatia's organized back four. On balance, a Panama blank is a live outcome against this quality of defense.
Verdict: A slight lean to Both Teams to Score No at 53¢ on Kalshi, or -130 at the sportsbooks, with Panama's goalless start the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
Croatia may need time to break down a disciplined Panama block, though their urgency could spark a faster start than they managed against England. Kalshi's first-half market reflects a close call, pricing Croatia at 47% to lead at the break, the Tie at 41%, and Panama at just 14%.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with Croatia to lead at the interval around -105, the First-Half Draw near +125, and Panama ahead at half-time out around +650. The market narrowly favors Croatia being in front by the break.
Panama's organization could keep the opening 45 level, but Croatia's quality should tell more often than not. Veteran talisman Luka Modrić, set for his 200th cap, remains central to the player-of-the-tournament market as the heartbeat of this Croatia side.
Verdict: Croatia to lead at half-time, priced at 47¢ on Kalshi or around -105 at the sportsbooks, narrowly edges the First-Half Draw.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
Croatia's attackers headline this market against a deep Panama defense, with the Central Americans offering value at longer prices. The recalled striker and in-form forwards lead the board.
- Ante Budimir (Croatia) - +175: Recalled to the starting line-up after scoring 11 goals for Osasuna since the turn of the year, the striker is a natural penalty-box presence and a strong candidate to lead the line and finish chances.
- Andrej Kramarić (Croatia) - +170: Croatia's most reliable finisher with sharp movement between the lines, Kramarić is well placed to exploit the half-spaces against a Panama side that sits deep.
- Petar Musa (Croatia) - +160: Already on the scoresheet at this World Cup against England, Musa is in form and a live option whether he starts or comes off the bench.
- José Fajardo (Panama) - +330: Panama's center-forward is their most likely scorer if they create a rare clear chance, their best route to a first goal of the tournament.
- Ismael Díaz (Panama) - +360: Panama's most creative recent attacker and qualifying top scorer, Díaz is a live longshot to threaten in transition if Panama push forward.
Verdict: Andrej Kramarić at +170 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with José Fajardo at +330 the strongest value play for Panama.
Injury Report
Croatia have no fresh injury concerns following the England defeat, though Dalić is expected to revert to his familiar 4-3-3 and restore Mateo Kovačić to midfield alongside Modrić. The 40-year-old captain, set for his 200th cap, will be managed carefully but remains central to Croatia's structure and tempo.
Panama have a settled squad available, with coach Thomas Christiansen expected to stick with the disciplined defensive shape that frustrated Ghana for long spells. Ismael Díaz and José Fajardo carry the main attacking threat, but the absence of a goal so far at this World Cup is their pressing concern.
Weather Forecast
The 7:00 PM ET kickoff at the open-air BMO Field is expected to bring warm, comfortable early-summer conditions with a low chance of rain. Pleasant evening weather should suit both sides without disruption.
A dry, true surface suits Croatia's possession-based passing and the runners breaking from midfield, helping them unlock a deep Panama block. The settled conditions keep the focus on the contrast between Croatia's quality and Panama's organization.
How to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, June 23, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Location: BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the top-rated sportsbooks compares the best prices and features for the tournament. Back Croatia to win with the Under and Andrej Kramarić anytime as the standout plays on the board.