Norway vs England Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026 Quarter-Finals
Jesse M. Cox Published 07/07/2026
The 2026 World Cup quarterfinals deliver a blockbuster as Norway face England at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. It is a duel of Golden Boot contenders, with Erling Haaland and Harry Kane both chasing the tournament's top-scorer crown and a place in the semifinals on the line.
Norway are the story of the summer, reaching their first-ever World Cup quarterfinal after beating Brazil 2-1 on merit, with Haaland scoring both goals. England became the first team in history to win at Mexico's Estadio Azteca, holding on for a 3-2 win over Mexico despite playing much of the second half with ten men.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make England narrow, even-money favorites at around -105 in 90 minutes, with the draw near +265 and Norway close behind at roughly +255. On the advancement market, England are favored to reach the semifinals, with Norway a very live underdog.
Kalshi's prediction market reads it as a near coin flip, pricing England at 52% to win in regulation, the draw at 26%, and Norway at 24%. There is barely anything between the sides.
England carry the deeper squad, the calmer temperament and the tighter defensive record, with 11 scored and just five conceded, but they arrive reshuffled at the back without the suspended Quansah, facing the form striker of the tournament. Norway can be undone by their own leaky defense, yet Haaland can settle any game alone, making this a genuine toss-up with real edge to England's floor. The standout names on show lead the player-of-the-tournament market.
Verdict: England at -105 is the lean, with their squad depth and higher floor edging a coin-flip tie, though Norway are a live threat to advance.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Over 2.5 goals favored around -135 and Under 2.5 out near +110. Two elite strikers and Norway's goal-heavy games drive the lean firmly toward goals.
Every one of Norway's matches at this tournament has sailed past 2.5 goals, and Haaland and Kane carry 13 tournament goals between them to keep the total ticking. With Norway conceding in every game and England reshaped at the back, an open, high-scoring quarterfinal is the most likely outcome.
Verdict: Lean Over 2.5 goals at -135, with two elite finishers and Norway's open games pointing firmly to goals.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 60¢ and No at 41¢, a clear lean toward both finding the net. Sportsbooks agree, with Yes favored around -140 and No out near +115.
The case for Yes is the standout angle on the card: Norway have both scored and conceded in all five outings, England have found the net in three straight and let one in during each of their last two, and their reshuffled back four faces Haaland. Goals at both ends fit the pattern.
The case for No leans on England's defensive discipline shutting Norway out, but with Quansah suspended and Haaland in this form, a clean sheet is a tall order. On balance, both teams scoring is the strongest read.
Verdict: A clear lean to Both Teams to Score Yes at 60¢ on Kalshi, or -140 at the sportsbooks, with two potent attacks and England's reshuffled defense the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
Both sides took time to break through in their last games, so a measured opening is possible before the game stretches. Kalshi's first-half market reflects a close call, pricing England at 38% to lead at the break, the Tie at 42%, and Norway at 21%.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the First-Half Draw the favorite around +115, England to lead at the break near +150, and Norway ahead at half-time out around +320. A level scoreline at the interval is the most probable single outcome.
England took until the half-hour to break down Mexico, and Norway needed 79 minutes against Brazil, so a cagey opening favors a level first half. Before backing a side, it pays to compare the latest knockout-round welcome offers to secure the best price.
Verdict: First-Half Draw at 42¢ on Kalshi, or +115 at the sportsbooks, is the play, with a level opening 45 the most likely.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
Two Golden Boot contenders headline this market. Erling Haaland and Harry Kane lead the board, with the supporting cast offering value.
- Erling Haaland (Norway) - +140: The tournament's joint-top scorer with seven goals from 5.9 expected goals, Haaland has hit 12 of his 18 shots on target and scored in 14 straight for Norway, and against a reshuffled England defense he is the standout scorer pick.
- Harry Kane (England) - +100: England's captain has six goals with three of them headers, a real aerial threat against a Norway side that has conceded in every match, making evens a strong number.
- Jude Bellingham (England) - +210: Fresh off a two-goal performance against Mexico, the midfielder's late runs into the box make him a constant threat and one of England's cleaner routes to a goal.
- Alexander Sørloth (Norway) - +240: A powerful penalty-box presence alongside Haaland, Sørloth is a strong value option to add a second Norway goal in an open game.
- Bukayo Saka (England) - +260: Back in the side after the Mexico reshuffle, Saka's directness from the right carries a genuine goal threat against a leaky Norway defense.
Verdict: Erling Haaland at +140 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Harry Kane at +100 the strongest play on the England side.
Injury Report
England's key issue is the suspension of defender Jarell Quansah after his Round-of-16 red card, forcing Thomas Tuchel to reshuffle his back line, with Reece James, Ezri Konsa and John Stones the options to reorganize around Marc Guéhi. Midfielder Jordan Henderson is a doubt after a wrist injury sustained in the celebrations against Mexico, though Declan Rice anchors the midfield regardless and Bukayo Saka returns to the attack.
Norway arrive at full strength and in dreamland, with Erling Haaland leading the line and Martin Ødegaard pulling the strings as their creative hub. Goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland was the hero against Brazil with a penalty save and one of the saves of the tournament, and Ståle Solbakken can name his strongest side, with only their leaky defense a concern.
Weather Forecast
The 5:00 PM ET kickoff at the open-air Hard Rock Stadium falls during a hot, humid Miami summer afternoon, with the conditions a genuine factor. The heat and humidity could sap legs over what may become a long afternoon.
Those sapping conditions could slow the tempo and place a premium on the benches, but with two elite attacks and open styles, they are unlikely to keep the goals down. The heat adds a layer of unpredictability to a tie that could stretch to extra time.
How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the best soccer betting sites compares the top prices and features for the knockout rounds. Back both teams to score with the Over and Erling Haaland anytime as the standout plays on the board.