Iraq vs Norway Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Mike Goodpaster Published 16/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Group I campaign continues as Iraq face Norway at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, a homecoming for two long-absent nations. Norway end a 28-year wait powered by a golden generation, while Iraq return to the World Cup stage for the first time since 1986.
This is the night Erling Haaland finally makes his World Cup debut, and the bookmakers expect him to make it count. Iraq are organized and resilient under Graham Arnold, but the step up to face one of Europe's most dangerous attacks is steep.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make Norway overwhelming favorites at around -460, with the draw out near +550 and Iraq a long shot at roughly +1300. The talent gap is enormous.
Kalshi's prediction market is similarly emphatic, pricing Norway at 81% to win in 90 minutes, the draw at 13%, and Iraq at just 7%. There is barely any path to an Iraq result on the numbers.
Norway cruised through qualifying with eight wins from eight and a +32 goal difference, and their attacking firepower is in a different class. With the straight price so short, a handicap or goals angle offers far better value, and you can see how Norway rate longer term in the latest World Cup outright winner odds.
Verdict: Norway at -460 is the clear call, with a handicap or Over angle a sharper value route than the short straight price.
Over/Under
The total is set high at 3.0, with Over and Under both priced around -110. Norway's attacking output drives an elevated line.
There is real tension here, though: Norway scored 37 goals in qualifying and should dominate, but six of Iraq's last seven matches have finished under 2.5 goals as they sit deep and frustrate. A multi-goal Norway win is the base case, yet Iraq's discipline could keep the total in check if they defend in numbers.
Verdict: Lean Over on a 2.5 line where available, with Norway's firepower set to break down an overmatched Iraq defense.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 41¢ and No at 60¢, a firm lean toward No. Sportsbooks agree, with No favored around -150 and Yes out near +120.
The case for No is strong: Iraq scored just once across their two June warm-ups, and Norway's defense should comfortably handle a limited attack. A Norway win to nil is one of the most backed angles on the card.
The case for Yes leans on Norway allowing a goal in seven of their last nine and Iraq nicking a late consolation. On balance, Iraq's blunt attack points toward a clean sheet for the favorites.
Verdict: A lean to Both Teams to Score No at 60¢ on Kalshi, or -150 at the sportsbooks, with Iraq's toothless attack the deciding factor.
First-Half Moneyline
Even as heavy favorites, Norway may need a little time to break down a deep Iraq block. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing Norway at 61% to lead at the break, the Tie at 32%, and Iraq at just 9%.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with Norway to lead at the interval around -160, the First-Half Draw near +225, and Iraq ahead at the break a remote +1400. The Norwegians are strongly favored to be in front by half-time.
Iraq's organization could delay the opener, but Norway's quality should tell before the interval more often than not. Backing the Norway first-half lead is the cleanest read, an angle that fits the scoring picture flagged across the Golden Boot race markets featuring Haaland.
Verdict: Norway to lead at half-time, priced near 61¢ on Kalshi or -160 at the sportsbooks, is the play.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
+9
- 20+ sports available for wagering
- Pre-match and in-play betting
- Unique features like live streaming and boosted odds
Bet $10 Get $150 in Bonus Bets
Find out more on bet365's website
- Over 20 sports
- Extensive betting markets
- Live betting feature
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
+6
- Deep market coverage across major U.S. sports and leagues
- Same Game Parlay builder is fast and easy to use
- Live betting interface updates quickly with real-time odds
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days
+7
- Bet on 40+ different sports
- Dynamic odds on live, in-play fixtures
- Deposit and bet $5 to receive up to $300 in bonus bets
10 x $100 bet match in FanCash
+3
- 15+ sports categories
- An extensive range of betting markets
- Supports in-play betting and live streaming
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
Norway's attackers dominate this market, with Haaland the obvious headline name against an untested Iraq defense. The supporting cast offers value at much longer prices.
- Erling Haaland (Norway) - -225: With 55 international goals in 50 caps and 16 in qualifying alone, Haaland is the single most likely player to score, and Iraq's center-backs have not faced a striker of his quality at this level. The short price is fully justified.
- Alexander Sørloth (Norway) - +120: The Atlético Madrid forward led his club's La Liga scoring this season and gives Norway a second genuine penalty-box threat, making him strong value alongside Haaland.
- Jørgen Strand Larsen (Norway) - +120: The in-form striker scored twice against Sweden in a June warm-up and is a live option whether he starts or arrives off the bench.
- Antonio Nusa (Norway) - +200: The pacey winger stretches defenses and carries a real goal threat from wide areas in a game Norway should control throughout.
- Aymen Hussein (Iraq) - +650: Iraq's experienced striker and captain figure is their best longshot to find the net if the Lions of Mesopotamia muster a rare clear chance.
Verdict: Erling Haaland at -225 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Sørloth at +120 the strongest value supporting play.
Injury Report
Norway arrive at full strength with no confirmed absences, allowing the manager to choose between a 4-3-3 and a 4-2-3-1 depending on how Iraq set up. Haaland, Ødegaard, Berge and Sørloth are all available, leaving the main decisions around rotation rather than fitness.
Iraq are also without major reported injuries and can name their preferred organized, defensive setup. Their challenge is the quality gap rather than availability, with center-backs Doski and Putros facing a significant step up against Norway's attack.
Weather Forecast
The 6:00 PM ET kickoff at Gillette Stadium is expected to be pleasant, with temperatures in the mid-70s°F, a light breeze and minimal humidity. Comfortable, stable conditions remove any weather disruption.
A dry, true surface suits Norway's quick, direct attacking play and should help them break down a deep Iraq block. The neutral conditions tilt further toward the favorites controlling tempo across the full 90 minutes.
How to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, June 16, 2026
- Time: 6:00 PM ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts (Boston)
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
Before backing the favorite, it is worth checking the latest World Cup betting promos and sign-up offers to secure the best price. Back Norway to win with the Over and Erling Haaland anytime as the standout plays on the board.