England vs Argentina Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup Semi-Finals 2026
Jesse M. Cox Published 13/07/2026
The 2026 World Cup semifinals conclude with a renewal of one of football's fiercest rivalries as England face Argentina at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Four decades on from the Hand of God, Harry Kane and Lionel Messi meet with a place in the July 19 final on the line.
England reached the last four with a 2-1 extra-time win over Norway, Jude Bellingham scoring twice, matching their 1966 record of five wins in a single tournament. Argentina survived their own extra-time drama, beating ten-man Switzerland 3-1 through a Julián Álvarez worldie and a Lautaro Martínez stoppage-time strike, to stay on course to defend their crown.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make England marginal favorites at around +155 in 90 minutes, with the draw near +195 and Argentina close behind at roughly +205. On the advancement market, England are about -130 to reach the final, with Argentina around +106.
Kalshi's prediction market reads it as a near-perfect coin flip, pricing England at 37% to win in regulation, the draw at 33%, and Argentina at 31%. There is barely anything between them.
England have the stingier defense of the two, having conceded just six goals and shut down Erling Haaland in the last round, and their resilience has carried them through hostile tests. Argentina lean on Messi in the form of his life, but they have conceded in every knockout game and needed extra time twice, so this shapes as a tense tie decided by a single moment. The standout names on show lead the player-of-the-tournament market.
Verdict: England at +155 is the marginal lean on their defensive edge, but this is a genuine coin flip that could easily reach extra time again.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Under 2.5 goals favored around -122 and Over 2.5 out near +100. Semifinal nerves and tired legs pull against a striking knockout goal trend.
The case for the Under is a familiar semifinal script: elite defenses, heavy legs after both sides played 120 minutes in the quarterfinals, and England's stingy back line. The case for the Over is loud, though, as every knockout game either side has played has gone over 2.5 with both teams scoring, and the 30 minutes of extra time this tie may need give goals extra runway.
Verdict: A narrow lean to Under 2.5 goals in regulation at -122, with semifinal caution edging it, though the sides' knockout goal trend makes the Over live.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 53¢ and No at 48¢, a slight lean toward both finding the net. Sportsbooks frame it similarly, with Yes around -120 and No near +100.
The case for Yes is backed by the trend: both teams have scored and conceded in every knockout game, and with Kane, Bellingham and Messi on the pitch, chances at both ends are near guaranteed. Neither defense has kept a clean sheet in the knockouts.
The case for No leans on the tightening effect of a semifinal and England's ability to shut a game down. On balance, the attacking quality and the knockout pattern edge this toward both teams scoring.
Verdict: A lean to Both Teams to Score Yes at 53¢ on Kalshi, or -120 at the sportsbooks, with the sides' knockout goal trend the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
Neither manager can afford to chase this game early, so a cagey opening 45 with packed midfields is likely. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing the Tie at 47¢, England at 28¢, and Argentina at 26¢.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the First-Half Draw the clear favorite around +105, England to lead at the break near +230, and Argentina ahead at half-time out around +240. A level scoreline at the interval is comfortably the most probable single outcome.
Both sides are likely to keep it buttoned up early, with the risk being a single first-half set piece, so a level first half holds the value. For where to back these markets, our guide to the best soccer betting sites compares the top prices for the semifinals.
Verdict: First-Half Draw at 47¢ on Kalshi, or +105 at the sportsbooks, is the play, with a level opening 45 the most likely.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
Two of the game's greatest scorers headline this market. Harry Kane and Lionel Messi lead the board, with the supporting cast offering value.
- Harry Kane (England) - +120: England's all-time World Cup scorer leads the tournament with six goals and is the primary penalty taker and focal point of the attack, the shortest price on the board for good reason.
- Lionel Messi (Argentina) - +135: The Golden Boot leader with eight goals takes every penalty and free kick for Argentina, and in what is almost certainly his final World Cup he remains the likeliest man to settle a tight game.
- Jude Bellingham (England) - +300: Fresh off a brace against Norway and the first player since Maradona in 1986 to score twice in consecutive World Cup knockout games, Bellingham's late runs into the box make him England's strongest value scorer.
- Lautaro Martínez (Argentina) - +220: Argentina's focal point through the middle struck the clinching goal against Switzerland and is a constant outlet for Messi, a strong supporting scorer pick.
- Julián Álvarez (Argentina) - +215: Scorer of a stunning extra-time winner against Switzerland, the forward finds space in behind and carries a genuine goal threat throughout.
Verdict: Harry Kane at +120 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Lionel Messi at +135 the strongest play on the Argentina side.
Injury Report
England are without a suspended center-back after the red card in the Round of 16, forcing Thomas Tuchel into another defensive reshuffle for the sternest test imaginable against Messi, while Jordan Henderson is out for the rest of the tournament following wrist surgery. Jordan Pickford is in excellent form with two clean sheets, and Kane, Bellingham and Saka lead a settled attack.
Argentina arrive without major reported absences and can field the experienced side built around Messi's free role, with Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martínez an aggressive central-defensive pairing. Lionel Scaloni's champions have found several routes to goal during their perfect run, though a back line that has conceded in every knockout game faces a major test against England's attack.
Weather Forecast
The 3:00 PM ET kickoff at Mercedes-Benz Stadium will be played under the venue's retractable roof, so the Atlanta summer heat and humidity will not affect conditions on the pitch. A controlled indoor environment is expected.
With a dry, true surface and no weather disruption, both sides can play at full tempo, favoring Argentina's possession game and England's pace in transition alike. The neutral conditions keep the focus squarely on the Kane-versus-Messi subplot and a rivalry soaked in World Cup history.
How to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, July 15, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the leading sportsbooks compares the best prices and features for the semifinals. Back both teams to score with Harry Kane and Lionel Messi anytime as the standout plays on the board.