Croatia vs Ghana Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Mike Goodpaster Published 25/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Group L campaign reaches a dramatic finale as Croatia face Ghana at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. With England already through at the top, this is a straight shootout for second place, and the two sides arrive with very different requirements.
Ghana sit second on four points after beating Panama and holding England to a goalless draw, meaning a draw here is enough to advance. Croatia, third on three points after a 4-2 loss to England and a 1-0 win over Panama, must win to guarantee their place in the knockout rounds.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make Croatia clear favorites at around -140, with the draw near +275 and Ghana the underdog at roughly +430. The price reflects Croatia's quality and their need to win.
Kalshi's prediction market lands in the same range, pricing Croatia at 55% to win in 90 minutes, the draw at 30%, and Ghana at 17%. The Vatreni are favored, but the fuller draw price reflects how well Ghana defend.
Croatia's midfield axis of Modrić and Kovačić gives them the tools to unlock a deep block, and their must-win situation should bring genuine attacking intent. Ghana have conceded just once at this tournament and will sit deep to protect the point they need, so this is a classic chess match between a side chasing the game and one happy to frustrate.
Verdict: Croatia at -140 is the lean, with their midfield class and greater urgency set to break down a resolute Ghana.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Under 2.5 goals favored around -140 and Over 2.5 out near +110. Ghana's defensive record and their draw-friendly math skew the line low.
Ghana have kept clean sheets in two of their last three competitive matches and will defend deep, while Croatia tend to control games rather than blow them open. A tense, low-scoring contest settled by a single Croatia goal fits the most likely script.
Verdict: Lean Under 2.5 goals at -140, with Ghana's organized block and the cagey setup pointing to a low-scoring game.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 45¢ and No at 56¢, a lean toward No. Sportsbooks frame it similarly, with No favored around -120 and Yes out near -105.
The case for Yes leans on Ghana's pace through Semenyo on the counter and the chance Croatia leave space chasing the game. The Black Stars carry a transition threat.
The case for No rests on Ghana's blunt attack, just one goal in two games, and Croatia's incentive to keep it tight while pushing for a winner. On balance, a Ghana blank is a live outcome against this quality of midfield control.
Verdict: A lean to Both Teams to Score No at 56¢ on Kalshi, or -120 at the sportsbooks, with Ghana's lack of cutting edge the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
Croatia may need time to break down a disciplined Ghana block, and the Black Stars will be content to keep the first half goalless. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing the Tie at 45¢, Croatia at 40¢, and Ghana at 16¢.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the First-Half Draw the favorite around +115, Croatia to lead at the break near +130, and Ghana ahead at half-time out around +500. A level scoreline at the interval is the most probable single outcome.
Croatia's quality means an early goal is possible, but Ghana's organization should keep the opening 45 tight. Ghana's clean-sheet record makes goalkeeper one of their strengths and a side to note among the leading goalkeeper bets at the tournament.
Verdict: First-Half Draw at 45¢ on Kalshi, or +115 at the sportsbooks, is the play, with Ghana likely to keep it level early.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
Croatia's attackers headline this market against a deep Ghana defense, with the Black Stars offering value at longer prices. Andrej Kramarić leads the board.
- Andrej Kramarić (Croatia) - +175: Croatia's most reliable finisher with sharp movement between the lines, Kramarić is well placed to exploit the half-spaces against a Ghana side that sits deep, making him their most likely scorer.
- Ante Budimir (Croatia) - +185: A natural penalty-box presence after a prolific club season, Budimir is a strong candidate to lead the line and finish the chances Croatia create.
- Petar Musa (Croatia) - +200: Already on the scoresheet at this World Cup, the in-form striker is a live option whether he starts or comes off the bench.
- Antoine Semenyo (Ghana) - +330: Ghana's most dynamic attacker offers pace and end product on the counter, their clearest route to a goal and the best value play on the underdog side.
- Jordan Ayew (Ghana) - +400: Ghana's experienced captain provides versatility across the front line and is a live longshot to punish any Croatia over-commitment.
Verdict: Andrej Kramarić at +175 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Antoine Semenyo at +330 the strongest value play for Ghana.
Injury Report
Croatia head into the decider with their experienced squad largely intact, and Zlatko Dalić will lean on the 40-year-old Luka Modrić, approaching 200 caps, to dictate the tempo and unlock Ghana. The midfield quality through Modrić and Kovačić is their primary route past a deep block.
Ghana are also without major reported absences and can name the organized side that has conceded just once at this tournament under Carlos Queiroz. Their concern is attacking output, with just one goal in two games placing the creative burden on Semenyo and Jordan Ayew.
Weather Forecast
The 1:00 PM ET kickoff at the open-air Lincoln Financial Field is expected to bring hot, humid early-afternoon conditions in Philadelphia, with the heat a genuine factor. The conditions could sap legs over 90 minutes.
Those sapping conditions could blunt Croatia's ability to sustain pressure late on, raising the importance of the bench, while a dry surface aids their patient passing game. The heat may also suit Ghana's energy-conserving, counter-attacking approach.
How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, June 27, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
- US TV Station: FS1 (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
The standout individuals on show, led by the veteran Modrić, feature prominently in the player-of-the-tournament market, and for where to back these bets, see our guide to the best soccer betting sites. Back Croatia to win with the Under and Andrej Kramarić anytime as the standout plays on the board.