Belgium vs Iran Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Mike Goodpaster Published 18/06/2026
The 2026 World Cup Group G campaign reaches a pivotal second matchday as Belgium face Iran at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. With all four group sides level on a single point after the openers, this is effectively a six-pointer in one of the tournament's tightest groups.
Belgium were held to a 1-1 draw by Egypt and need a win to seize control, while Iran twice came from behind to earn a 2-2 draw with New Zealand. The Red Devils carry far more attacking firepower, but Iran's resilience makes them a stubborn obstacle.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make Belgium heavy favorites at around -240, with the draw near +380 and Iran the long shot at roughly +700. The price reflects Belgium's superior depth and quality.
Kalshi's prediction market lands in the same range, pricing Belgium at 69% to win in 90 minutes, the draw at 20%, and Iran at just 12%. The Red Devils are firmly favored to bounce back.
Belgium carry a cleaner attacking profile than most teams in their group through De Bruyne, Doku and Lukaku, while Iran are compact, well-drilled and built to frustrate. With the straight price steep, the value sits in a goal handicap or a win-to-nil angle rather than the moneyline alone, and it pays to compare the latest tournament welcome offers before backing such a short number.
Verdict: Belgium at -240 is the clear call, with a handicap or win-to-nil angle the sharper value route than the short straight price.
Over/Under
The total sits at 2.5, with Over 2.5 goals slightly favored around -130 and Under 2.5 near -104. Belgium's attacking volume drives the lean toward goals.
Belgium have scored in 18 consecutive World Cup matches and should create plenty against an Iran defense that conceded twice to New Zealand. Iran will sit deep and limit clear chances, but the Red Devils' quality points to a multi-goal win, most likely a controlled 2-0 or 3-1.
Verdict: Lean Over 2.5 goals at -130, with Belgium's firepower set to break down a leaky Iran defense.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 46¢ and No at 55¢, a lean toward No. Sportsbooks frame it similarly, with No favored around -135 and Yes out near +110.
The case for Yes leans on Mehdi Taremi's quality leading the line and Iran's willingness to press, which produced two goals against New Zealand. The Iranians are not afraid to attack.
The case for No rests on Iran's limited shot count against stronger sides and Belgium's defensive solidity behind Courtois. A Belgium win to nil is one of the most backed angles on the card.
Verdict: A lean to Both Teams to Score No at 55¢ on Kalshi, or -135 at the sportsbooks, with Iran's limited attack the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
Even as heavy favorites, Belgium may need time to break down a disciplined Iran block early on. Kalshi's first-half market reflects a close call, pricing Belgium at 50% to lead at the break, the Tie at 39%, and Iran at just 12%.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with Belgium to lead at the interval around -105, the First-Half Draw near +130, and Iran ahead at half-time out around +700. The market narrowly favors Belgium being in front by the break.
Iran's organization could delay the opener, but Belgium's quality should tell more often than not. Belgium's defensive solidity behind Courtois also makes them one to note among the leading goalkeeper and clean-sheet bets this summer.
Verdict: Belgium to lead at half-time, priced at 50¢ on Kalshi or around -105 at the sportsbooks, narrowly edges the First-Half Draw.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
Belgium's attackers dominate this market against a deep Iran block, with Taremi the standout value on the underdog side. Romelu Lukaku leads the board.
- Romelu Lukaku (Belgium) - +185: Belgium's all-time leading scorer came off the bench to influence the Egypt draw and is the natural penalty-box presence, making him the most likely scorer against a defense that can be got at.
- Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium) - +250: Belgium's chief creator arrives late into dangerous areas and is a constant set-piece threat, giving him a genuine goal threat from midfield.
- Jérémy Doku (Belgium) - +260: The direct, pacey winger stretches deep defenses and carries a real goal threat against an Iran side that will sit back.
- Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium) - +280: A versatile attacker who finds pockets between the lines, De Ketelaere offers value if he starts in a game Belgium should dominate.
- Mehdi Taremi (Iran) - +500: Iran's talisman and main threat, Taremi is the one player who can trouble Belgium if they switch off, and the clear value play on the underdog side.
Verdict: Romelu Lukaku at +185 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Mehdi Taremi at +500 the strongest value play for Iran.
Injury Report
Belgium arrive close to full strength, with Courtois in goal behind a settled 4-2-3-1 and De Bruyne pulling the strings in his advanced role. Lukaku, used off the bench in the opener, is pushing to start and gives Belgium a focal point in attack.
Iran are also without major reported absences and can name the organized side that battled back against New Zealand. Goalkeeper Alireza Beiranvand will be busy, while right-back Ramin Rezaeian, who scored and assisted in the opener, offers their main attacking spark alongside Taremi.
Weather Forecast
The 3:00 PM ET kickoff at SoFi Stadium will be played under the venue's fixed roof, with warm, dry Los Angeles conditions outside and no weather disruption expected. A comfortable, controlled environment is likely.
A dry, true surface suits Belgium's quick passing and combination play, helping them break down a compact Iran block. The neutral conditions keep the focus squarely on the gap in quality between the sides.
How to Watch
- Date: Sunday, June 21, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California (Los Angeles)
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the top-rated sportsbooks compares the best prices and features for the tournament. Back Belgium to win with the Over and Romelu Lukaku anytime as the standout plays on the board.