Australia vs Egypt Picks, Odds and Best Bets - World Cup 2026
Mike Goodpaster Published 01/07/2026
The 2026 World Cup Round of 32 continues as Australia face Egypt at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, a tie where history is guaranteed for one side. Australia have never won a World Cup knockout match, while Egypt are playing in their first-ever knockout game at the tournament.
Egypt finished second in Group G on five points, riding the influence of Mohamed Salah and picking up their first-ever World Cup group-stage win. Australia advanced from Group D as runners-up on four points and an even goal difference, built on defensive resilience but managing just two goals across three games.
Below we break down every key market with the latest prices, our reasoning, and a clear verdict on each.
Moneyline
Sportsbooks make Egypt slight favorites at around +150 in 90 minutes, with the draw near +190 and Australia the underdog at roughly +230. On the advancement market, Egypt are about -140 to reach the last 16, with Australia around +116.
Kalshi's prediction market reads it as a genuine three-way, pricing Egypt at 39% to win in regulation, the draw at 34%, and Australia at 29%. The high draw price reflects two defensively minded sides meeting in a cagey knockout tie.
Egypt have the better player in Salah, more attacking variety, and the cleaner template for this kind of game, while Australia bring the defensive shape to make it ugly. A 1-0 Egypt win on the back of a Salah-led move is the script that fits both sides, though the Pharaohs' reliance on their talisman is the swing factor. The standout names on show feature in the player-of-the-tournament market.
Verdict: Egypt at +150 is the lean, with their greater attacking quality set to edge a tight, low-scoring knockout tie.
Over/Under
The total sits low at 2.5, with Under 2.5 goals firmly favored and a lower 2.0 line also in play where the Under is around -125. Two defensively organized sides skew the line low.
Australia kept a clean sheet against Türkiye and drew 0-0 with Paraguay, while Egypt drew 1-1 in two of their three games, and both built their tournaments on defensive solidity. A tight, low-scoring contest settled by a single goal is comfortably the most likely script.
Verdict: Lean Under 2.5 goals, with two organized defenses and a cagey knockout setting pointing to a low-scoring tie.
Both Teams to Score
Kalshi prices Both Teams to Score Yes at 43¢ and No at 58¢, a firm lean toward No. Sportsbooks agree, with No favored around -150 and Yes out near +120.
The case for No is strong: Australia failed to score in two of their three group games, and Egypt conceded nothing across their qualifying campaign, so there is a real chance only one team finds the net. A 1-0 or single-team scoreline is firmly in play.
The case for Yes leans on Salah unlocking Australia while the Socceroos nick one on the counter through Irankunda. On balance, the defensive profiles point toward one side being kept quiet.
Verdict: A lean to Both Teams to Score No at 58¢ on Kalshi, or -150 at the sportsbooks, with two low-scoring sides the deciding factor.
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First-Half Moneyline
Two cautious sides in a knockout tie are likely to feel each other out before the game opens up. Kalshi's first-half market reflects that, pricing the Tie at 50¢, Egypt at 29¢, and Australia at 22¢.
Sportsbooks frame the half similarly, with the First-Half Draw the clear favorite around +105, Egypt to lead at the break near +200, and Australia ahead at half-time out around +320. A level scoreline at the interval is comfortably the most probable single outcome.
Neither side projects to take firm control before the break, so the value sits with a level first half. Before backing a side, it pays to compare the latest knockout-round welcome offers to secure the best price.
Verdict: First-Half Draw at 50¢ on Kalshi, or +105 at the sportsbooks, is the play, with a level opening 45 the most likely.
Anytime Goalscorer (Top 5 Bets)
Egypt's attackers headline this market, with Salah the most decisive player in the fixture by a distance. Australia's forwards offer value at longer prices.
- Mohamed Salah (Egypt) - +240: The most decisive player on the pitch by some margin, Salah registered a goal and two assists in the group stage and is the axis of Egypt's chance creation, making him the standout scorer pick if fit to start.
- Omar Marmoush (Egypt) - +330: The Manchester City forward generated strong underlying numbers without a group-stage goal, and at this price the overdue striker is a value play to finally convert.
- Trézéguet (Egypt) - +400: A direct wide threat who found the net in the group stage, Trézéguet offers another route to goal in Egypt's varied attack.
- Nestory Irankunda (Australia) - +550: The Socceroos' brightest creative outlet scored off the bench in the group stage and is the likeliest source of an Australia goal if one arrives.
- Connor Metcalfe (Australia) - +650: A second-line goal threat from midfield who already scored at this tournament, Metcalfe is a live longshot Egypt will need to track.
Verdict: Mohamed Salah at +240 is the headline anytime goalscorer pick, with Nestory Irankunda at +550 the strongest value play for Australia.
Injury Report
Egypt's biggest question is the fitness of Mohamed Salah, who was substituted early in the second half of their final group game and asked to be replaced, prompting an injury assessment. If the talisman is fit to start, Egypt are rightly favored; any absence or limitation would significantly reshape the tie, with Omar Marmoush and Trézéguet the supporting threats.
Australia arrive with a broadly fit squad and no major reported absences, allowing Tony Popovic to field the compact, defensive setup that served them in the group stage. Goalkeeper Mathew Ryan anchors the resistance, with Jackson Irvine and Connor Metcalfe the engine and Nestory Irankunda the pace on the break.
Weather Forecast
The 2:00 PM ET kickoff at AT&T Stadium will be played under the venue's retractable roof, so the Texas summer heat will not affect conditions on the pitch. A controlled indoor environment is expected.
With a dry, true surface and no weather disruption, Egypt can play their possession game and work Salah into space, while Australia can execute their compact, counter-attacking plan. The neutral conditions keep the focus squarely on the knockout tension and the Salah-versus-Australia-defense battle.
How to Watch
- Date: Friday, July 3, 2026
- Time: 2:00 PM ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas (Dallas)
- US TV Station: FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish), with streaming on Peacock and FOX One
For a closer look at where to back these markets, our rundown of the best soccer betting sites compares the top prices and features for the knockout rounds. Back Egypt to advance with the Under and Mohamed Salah anytime as the standout plays on the board.