December 28, 2021
A pair of 7-7 teams look to keep their playoff hopes alive as a depleted New Orleans Saints host a red hot Miami Dolphins squad on the Week 16 edition of Monday Night Football. Get all of the information you need to bet the spread, moneyline, and props like anytime touchdown scorer below! With only two weeks left in the regular season the time to bet is now. Get live odds on every game with our live football odds page that compares the odds given by every major sportsbook all in one place so you can be sure that you’re getting the best deal.
In our current wild world of sports it’s important to track the news and see how lines change. Seeing that the Saints would be without their top three quarterbacks (Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, and Trevor Siemian) this spread swung from New Orleans being three point favorites, to now being three and a half point underdogs. It’s now fourth-round rookie QB Ian Book under center for his first ever start in the NFL. All he needs to do is beat the hottest team in the NFL who are riding a six game win streak.
Sounds impossible, but the Saints haven’t been built on offense since losing Winston earlier in the season. Instead, it’s been their defense who have carried the load. Usually nine points isn’t enough to get a win in this eras NFL, but New Orleans did just that when they shut out Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last week. So there is a chance the could cobble together another similar game in which the defense makes plays, and the offense does just enough.
I wouldn’t count it out though, and instead I’m looking for the Miami Dolphins, who haven’t lost a game since Halloween, to both win and cover this spread. Their defense has had 25 sacks since Week 9, which leads the NFL and could terrify a rookie QB. Miami is also getting its top wide receiver, rookie Jaylen Waddle, back on the field which helps their offense. I find it hard to to believe the Saints could pitch another shutout this week, and they would likely need that to win, take the Dolphins.
Unsurprisingly the total points have shrunken quite a bit to 37.5 since the Saints QB news got out. Still this line is too high. The Saints struggle to face good defenses when they have a competent QB. They posted six points against the Bills, 17 against the Cowboys, and nine against the Bucs. Meanwhile, in the Dolphins six game win streak they’ve beaten the Texans, Jets twice, Panthers, Giants, and Ravens.
Not exactly murderers row when it comes to top defenses. Take the under in this game as it’s likely to be an unfortunately less exciting Monday Night Football game.
I have a hunch that touchdowns will be hard to come by in this game. Still, I like Tua’s security blanket Mike Gesicki to get into the endzone. He’s been heavily targeted as of late and the Saints have been weak against pass catching tight ends outside of last week.
Kamara will be in for a heavy work load tonight as the Saints will need to lean on the running game. The Dolphins will undoubtedly look to stack the box, but Kamara is a good enough back to break out against it.