US Senators Call For End to Prediction Markets on Wildfires
David Genge Published 04/08/2026
Nine Democratic Senators, led by Jeff Merkley of Oregon, are pressing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to crack down on prediction market sites that are now offering event contracts for individuals to bet on wildfires. Wildfires are currently burning in Oregon and across the USA.
The Senators are critical that players on these specific prediction markets are trying to profit off a natural disaster that is affecting the American people and endangering US communities. They are calling upon the CFTC, the regulator of prediction markets, to put into place common-sense guardrails to prevent gamblers from making a profit as wildfires threaten communities nationwide.
Senators question whether the CFTC is offering guidance or enforcement plans relating to wildfires and event contracts
The other Democratic Senators who were co-signing a letter of concern sent to CFTC Chair Michael Selig are Alex Padilla (D-CA), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Adam Schiff (D-CA), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Ron Wyden (D-OR), and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN). As a collective, they find it disturbing that the CFTC would be okay with prediction markets on events that are natural disasters.
“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,” the Senators wrote in their letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig. “There’s also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful.
"By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading.
"Recent public reports have highlighted how Polymarket—the largest prediction market platform in the world—accepted more than $1.2 million in bets surrounding the Palisades and Eaton fires in January 2025. These fires devastated the Los Angeles area, claiming the lives of 31 people and destroying more than 16,000 structures.
"Another report even spotlighted the launch of a new prediction market platform that accepts only simulated bets on wildfires in California and whose slogan boasts, “You can’t predict fire, but you can trade on it.”
The Senators question whether offering prediction markets on wildfires serves the public interest.
Merkley has been at the forefront of Senators challenging prediction markets
Merkley has long sounded the alarm over the dangers that prediction markets pose to American democracy. Previously, he urged the CFTC to tackle insider trading. He is also seeking to put a halt to betting on elections, war, and government actions.
He also wrote the STOP Corrupt Bets Act to ban betting through prediction markets on issues that are against the public interest and have no economic value. These events would include elections, government actions, sports, and military actions. Merkley introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act. Its purpose is to prevent the President, Vice President, Members of Congress, and other public officials from trading event contracts. This bill is designed to curb the potential for insider trading and conflicts of interest.
Congress is keeping the pressure on the CFTC
Monday was the third session of Congress in a row that some members were airing concerns over prediction markets with the CFTC.
Lisa Mur (R-AK) and Brian Schatz (D-HI) were pressing the agency over tribal consultation. Previously, Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT) were advancing a national sports contract ban.