Prediction Markets Are Heavy Spenders on Political Lobbying
David Genge Published 07/10/2026
Prediction Markets have spent at least $3 million this year on lobbying and campaign contributions at the state and federal levels. The group's biggest spender is Kalshi, the most popular prediction market site in the U.S. The main objectives of these measures are to try to combat efforts at the state government level to shut down prediction market sports-event contracts as illegal sports betting.
Another goal is to push to help political candidates who look favorably upon prediction market sites, both state and federal, to win enough votes to get elected in next month's midterm elections.
Prediction Markets are donating to those who are fighting against them
Research conducted by the website Open Secrets unveiled an intriguing money trail from prediction market sites to politicians. Interestingly, that money is often flowing to the exact people who are seeking to put a halt to the booming prediction market sites.
Open Secrets reviewed filings from the Internal Revenue Service. Those documents showed that Kalshi had given $147,500 to the Republican Attorneys General Association. There was also $170,000 that was directed by Kalshi to the Democratic Attorneys General Association.
Blake Rae is the head of Kalshi's state relations. Previously, Rae was serving as the director of the National Association of Attorneys General’s Center for Leadership Development. In that role, Rae was working directly with many state attorneys general.
A spokesperson for Kalshi sought to downplay these relationships.
“Like many U.S. regulated companies, we support candidates on both sides of the aisle,” Dani Lever, a spokesperson for Kalshi, wrote in a statement to OpenSecrets.
It is those same attorneys general who are leading the legal charge to have prediction market sports-event contracts declared as illegal sports betting under state gambling regulatory rules.
Kalshi is investing heavily in lobbyists
Kalshi employs lobbyists in 41 of 50 U.S. states. By contrast, Polymarket, the other major prediction market site, employs no lobbyists.
Kalshi has specifically set its lobbying focus in two of the largest states, California and New York. Kalshi appears to be preparing for the potential of restrictive state laws being introduced to govern prediction market operators. This could happen if the Supreme Court were to rule that event contracts offered by prediction markets are subject to state gambling laws. The prediction market sites argue that they offer derivative swaps. They insist that they are regulated solely by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
"Most state gambling laws are designed for sporting events, poker, casino games, but they mostly clearly cover gambling in whatever form or packaging,” Benjamin Schriffin, director of securities policy at Better Markets, a nonprofit that advocates for financial reform, told Open Secrets. “I don’t think anybody ever conceived of having to pass a law that’s going to prevent people who are watching Survivor at home on a Wednesday night from betting on who’s going to win.
"So you could see states thinking, ‘We need to clarify our gambling laws for all these new ways that people have now found to gamble on prediction markets.’”
The Prediction Market Coalition is focusing on federal laws
Kalshi, Coinbase, Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Underdog came together in December 2025 to form the Prediction Market Coalition (PMC). They are focusing the energies of the group on federal laws that could jeopardize the future of prediction markets.
Some major players are part of the PMC. Sean Patrick Maloney, the president of the PMC, served in the Biden administration. Senior advisers include former Speaker of the House Patrick McHenry and former CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz.