Google Set to Ban Prediction Market Sites as of August 1

Google says the prediction market ban is all about trust

Dropping access to prediction markets is a security move, according to Google developers.

"The Chrome Web Store is committed to fostering a high-quality, trusted, and secure ecosystem for both developers and users," Google scholar Rebecca Walton wrote on the Chrome For Developers blog. "To align with this ongoing commitment, we are announcing a series of updates to our Developer Program Policies.

"These updates will enhance user privacy, provide clearer guidance on data collection transparency requirements, and address emerging product categories."

The first change of the list was the ban on prediction market sites. Categorized under regulated goods and services, Google noted that, "We are expanding our language to explicitly include predictive markets as prohibited products. Extensions that facilitate or enable real money transactions on predictive outcomes are not allowed."

Ultimately, Google suggests, it all comes down to a matter of trust.

"Building and maintaining user trust is paramount," Walton writes. "By implementing stricter data collection baselines and clarifying boundaries around prediction markets and AI safety, we ensure that the Chrome Web Store remains an honest, useful, and secure platform.

"Users should always have full visibility into how their data is handled, with the confidence that their extension ecosystem operates responsibly."

Goldman Sachs is following Google's lead

Google isn't the only big-name corporation sending prediction markets packing. Goldman Sachs has issued a ban on its employees from trading on certain prediction market contracts. These would be contracts relating to events that are specific to the bank. Other banned trades include elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics, according to a report from CNBC.

Insider trading on prediction markets appears to be worrisome for all companies and for the customers of the companies.

“We are getting constant questions from clients, particularly among regulated entity clients, about what the regulator expectations are, what the risks are, where the areas of potential liability are,” David Oliwenstein, a partner and securities enforcement practice lead at Pillsbury, told CNBC.

A Google employee was indicted for insider trading

Earlier this year, a Google software engineer was charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. These charges arose from his scheme to misappropriate confidential information from his employer. The Google employee then made use of that information to place a series of profitable Google-related trades on the Polymarket prediction market platform.

Michele Spagnuolo obtained more than $1.2 million through trading on Polymarket. He did so based on confidential business information to which he was provided access as an employee of Google. He is accused of using the alias AlphaRaccoon to place the bets on Polymarket between October and December of 2025.

Spagnuolo was charged with one count of violating the Commodity Exchange Act. This charge carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison. He's also facing one count of wire fraud. That carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison. Finally, Spagnuolo is charged with one count of money laundering. That crime carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison.