Do Swaps Include Sports? Coalition For Prediction Markets Says Yes
David Genge Published 07/05/2026
On Thursday, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) concluded its Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR) seeking comment regarding event contract derivatives traded on markets commonly referred to as “prediction markets.” The CFTC issued this ANPR to evaluate whether and how to update its regulatory framework for event contract derivatives traded on prediction markets.
The 45-day period saw the CFTC hear from in excess of 1,400 commenters. Among the more vocal voices entering the discussion was that of The Coalition for Prediction Markets (CFPM). They are a lobby group representing some of the most prominent companies in the prediction market industry.
The Coalition for Prediction Markets urges the CFTC to go with the status quo
The CFPM describes itself as a unified industry voice. It is working with policymakers, regulators, and the public to facilitate the orderly development of prediction markets. Its membership counts many of the major players in the prediction market game. They include Kalshi, Crypto.com, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Underdog. They cite their members as being committed to transparent, responsible rules for prediction markets.
In its comment to the CFTC, the CFPM was basically urging the federal regulator to go with the flow. Change is not what they are seeking.
"The advance notice of proposed rulemaking (“ANPRM”)1 represents a critical opportunity for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC” or “Commission”) to reaffirm its commitment to fair and transparent access to prediction markets under a consistent federal framework with appropriate guardrails," read the comment from the CFPM. "The Coalition urges the Commission to apply its existing principles-based regulatory framework to prediction markets offering event contracts.
"Using this framework, the Commission has successfully regulated commodity derivatives markets for decades, through many periods of change and innovation. The Commission and its regulatory framework are well-situated to address the innovations of today."
The CFPM is insisting that sports event contracts fall under CFTC jurisdiction
The bone of contention between state regulators and prediction market sites is whether sports event contracts are, in actuality, illegal gambling. Sports betting is state-regulated. And those regulators want to see a halt put to prediction markets offering event contracts on outcomes in sports.
Naturally, the CFPM and its membership don't see it that way at all.
"While prediction markets have some novel features, they are not fundamentally different from more traditional commodity derivatives markets," the CFFM wrote. "However, unlike traditional futures and swaps markets, prediction markets offer trading in nearly every major event—from weather events to the winner of the World Series."
Sports event contracts are just another form of swaps
The CFPM notes that the Commodities Exchange Act (CEA) grants complete jurisdiction over prediction markets to the CFTC. They insist that this alone settles the argument over whether sports event contracts are sports betting.
"The CEA grants the CFTC 'exclusive jurisdiction' over swaps and futures traded on CFTC-regulated markets and preempts state gaming laws," the CFPM notes. "Prediction markets, and the event contracts they list, fall squarely within the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction under the CEA.
"Event contracts are currently structured as swaps. A “swap” includes “any” “contract . . . that provides for any purchase, sale, payment, or delivery” and “depend[s] on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of an event or contingency associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence.”
"The swaps definition is certainly broad enough to capture sports-related event contracts."