Insider Trading Suspicions Raised Over Polymarket War-Related Prediction Markets
Jesse M. Cox Published 28/05/2026
Prediction market site Polymarket is under the microscope following a report about the site handling a significant volume of trades on the U.S. war with Iran. According to reporting by 60 Minutes, nine Polymarket prediction market accounts engaged in $2.4 million in trades involving U.S. military action against Iran.
There were 80 trades made with a 98% win rate, which immediately raised red flags with integrity monitoring sites. The data analytics firm Bubblemaps identified these trades as a potentially egregious case of insider trading. Overall, this year, more than $1 billion has been staked online through prediction markets on military decisions and outcomes.
Betting on war is a whole new category of wagering
Prediction markets have opened up many new ways to play the odds on a variety of events. Betting on the outcomes of a war wasn't an avenue anyone would've imagined being on the table even a year ago.
Many of the trades on the Iran war were made when the odds weren't in favor of the outcome occurring. Yet in the majority of cases, the trades cashed in as winners.
Michelle Kendler-Kretsch of the Anti-Corruption Data Collective looked at long-shot wagers on military markets made on Polymarket. Each was a trade of more than $2,500, which offered less than 35% odds of being a winning trade. Yet, even though each of these plays was a long shot, the traders won more often than they lost.
Bubblemarket shared the company's findings on the Polymarket Iran war trades with the CBS News magazine show 60 Minutes.
"This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far," Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman told 60 Minutes. "Luck alone cannot explain those numbers."
These integrity monitoring sites aren't the only organizations leaning toward insider trading when viewing the outcomes of the Polymarket trades on the U.S.-Iran war.
"This is a new kind of insider trading," said Rob Schwartz, a partner at the law firm Morgan Lewis. Schwartz spent 13 years working at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC is tasked with policing fraud and insider trading.
Military operations are easy targets for insider trading
Even though military operations are top secret and classified, there are still plenty of people in the loop when an attack is in the planning stage. Everyone from government officials, planners, and intelligence analysts, down to spouses of service members, can be in the know about the elements of classified information involving a military strike.
That creates a significant number of potential insiders.
There's already been one case of a military member utilizing classified information about the U.S. invasion of Venezuela to enrich himself through prediction markets. Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke made trades on the special operations mission to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The Justice Department alleges Van Dyke made a series of wagers totalling roughly $34,000, including a half dozen the day before the raid. He netted more than $400,000. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to all charges.
Polymarket officials say they are vigilant when it comes to insider trading
The paradox with prediction markets is that all trades are out in the open and easy to trace. However, the identities of traders remain anonymous. When questioned by 60 Minutes, Polymarket officials were adamant. They insist the company is vigilant when searching for evidence of insider trading.
"When our systems identify suspicious activity, we act — including through referrals to law enforcement and cooperation with investigations," Polymarket said in a statement issued to 60 Minutes. "Insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified."