New Legislation Would Ban Congress From Political Prediction Markets
Mike Goodpaster Published 26/06/2026
House Republicans advanced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act. This bill would ban members of Congress and their family members from taking part in certain political prediction markets. Democrats, however, said the bill didn't go far enough. The House Administration Committee voted along party lines for the bill. It would restrict lawmakers, spouses, and dependent children from taking part in markets that are based on elections and any government action predictions.
Earlier this year, the U.S. Senate unanimously banned senators and members of their staff from taking part in the prediction markets altogether. Some in the House want to see similar rules applied to their membership.
House Republicans are the sponsors of this bill that is before Congress
It was Rep. Bryan Steil, a Republican from Wisconsin, who originally introduced The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act. He's the House Administration Chair.
"The American people deserve to know their member of Congress is not profiting off insider information," Steil said in a release. "The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act ensures that cannot happen. This legislation is critical to restoring the public's trust in their elected officials.
"Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome."
Steil’s measure would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, and their dependent children from participating in prediction market transactions related to a specific government policy, a government action, a political outcome, or an event that comes to their attention through their congressional service.
The bill would permit the House and Senate ethics panels to impose fines of $2,000 or 10% of the value of the transaction, whichever is greater, as well as the net gain from the trade. Those members of Congress who resign or retire without paying any fines associated with these activities could be referred to the Justice Department for further punishment.
It also implements restrictions on the methods for paying those penalties. Certain allowances, contributions, and donations are prohibited from being used to pay off any punishment meted out for violating this act.
If approved, the bill would take effect 180 days after its passage.
House Democrats don't believe that the bill goes far enough
That the vote on the bill was split 5-4 down party lines wasn't at all surprising. Democratic House members are complaining that the bill doesn't go far enough to put a halt to prediction market activity among members of Congress.
Joe Morelle, a Democrat from New York and the ranking Democrat member of the House Administration Committee, insists that The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act is "so filled with loopholes that it looks more like a sieve than a bill."
Morelle argues that the ban should include Congressional staff members and any candidate for office. He also believes it should be a complete ban on prediction market site activity.
The Senate was quick to push a complete ban through Congress
Morelle was also citing the measures that the Senate implemented in April. At that time, the Senate put into place a complete ban on all prediction market activity, and it took effect immediately.
"The Senate did it in a matter of minutes," Morelle told Politico. "No six-month grace period, no procedurally laborious process. They just went to the floor with a two-page resolution and banned it all unanimously.
“The Senate was able to unanimously block senators and staff from trading on prediction markets in one day. Why can’t and why won’t the House do the same thing?”