October 11, 2021
If it’s a Monday in the Fall, that can only mean one thing. There’s a Monday Night Football matchup to look forward to. Week 6 sees the red hot 3-1 Baltimore Ravens host a 1-3 Indianapolis Colts team who are fresh off of their first win.
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The biggest question with the Ravens is always which Lamar Jackson is going to show up. He can be an electric player who is seemingly unstoppable both through the air or on the ground. Then another week he’ll get bottled up on the ground and be inaccurate with any pass more than 10 yards downfield.
Our best guess is that prime Lamar shows up in primetime. This is helped by the fact that the Colts D has let every team they faced that isn’t the Jacoby Brissett led Dolphins score in the high 20’s.
On the flipside Carson Wentz will struggle with his best O-lineman Quentin Nelson out for the contest along with tackle Branden Smith. The Ravens defense has sacked opposing QBs 10 times in four games and could live in the Colts backfield tonight. All of this is to say take the Ravens at home tonight. Don’t hesitate to tease the line up a couple more points to 9 or 9.5 either.
This line has slid all the way down to 46 from its opening at 50. Now that it’s gotten this low, the smart bet is to take the over. We know the Ravens can get hot and put up points in bunches, especially in primetime. Since arriving in Baltimore, Harbaugh has a record of 16-2 in primetime games, and I don’t foresee the Colts defense dictating the pace of this game.
The bigger question then remains, will the Colts be able to put up points? This team may be 3-1 but they’re not completely anemic on offense as they’ve average over 20 points a game. Wentz is becoming more comfortable and is finally off of the injury report as it seems both of his sprained ankles have healed.
The Colts will once again score close to 20 and the Ravens will do the rest. The over is a solid choice for this matchup.
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Just about everyone is in agreement that Baltimore walks away from this matchup with a victory. So why combo it with a Lamar Jackson TD and get even better odds. Jackson’s only ran in two TDs this year, but should have multiple opportunities against a porous Colt defense tonight.
People tend to forget just how mobile Wentz was during his time with the Eagles. A few injuries and surgeries have slowed him down, but he’s still comfortable escaping the pocket. He should get pressured all night by the Ravens D, and will have no choice but to scramble and accumlate over 10 yards throughout the night.
Andrews is Jackson’s favorite target and security blanket. He’s also caught five passes in 3 out of 4 games this season. Look for him to get at least five in this one and possibly his first TD of the year.