
Raymond James stadium in Tampa Bay plays host to the Week 11 edition of Monday Night Football
Monday Night Football in Week 11 sees the 3-8 New York Giants travel to Tampa Bay to face off against Tom Brady and the 8-3 Buccaneers. Many think the Bucs will steamroll though New York in this matchup, but others aren’t certain with Tampa Bay coming in after losing two games in a row to back-up QBs in New Orleans and Washington.
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This spread was as big as 11.5 points for Tampa Bay before dropping a point to 10.5. I understand in some ways this large spread. The Super Bowl defending Buccaneers started the season 8-1 and have returned all 22 starters from last years roster. For a long while they were the consensus choice to repeat as well.
However, the Bucs have been far from the dominant force many predicted them to be, even in victories. They are only 3-6 against the spread this year, yet still draw the large odds every week. They do have a bad habit at times of playing down to the competition.
New York hasn’t been a great football team this year, but for betting purposes they are killing it as underdogs. Against the spread they are 5-4 overall and cover 60% of their game while the underdogs. They are also fresh off a bye, are well rested, and should be well prepared for the Buccaneers. I don’t seem the winning, but I do see them covering.
Yes, Tom Brady and the Bucs and score quickly and rack up the points. When healthy they are known to score into the high 30’s and 40’s. However, they’re not healthy. Antonio Brown will miss another game and Gronk is finally back, but to what degree?
The key to whether this game goes over or under 50 points will be the Giants offense. Will they be able to score, and how much? Running Back Saquon Barkley is back in the lineup, but even when he was healthy early in the season he was the dominant one man wrecking crew we’ve seen in the past. His top rushing performance this season is a total of 57 yards on 13 carries, and he’s only gone over 100 total yards once this season. The Giants will put up some points, but this game won’t be a shootout. Take the under.
Instead of two separate props, I’m combining them for one likely parlay. The Buccaneers seem likely to hold a lead for most, if not all of this game. That bodes well for their running game, and running back, Leonard Fournette. I seem him getting loads of touches throughout this contest and making the most from them.
Whenever Fournette has gotten 15 or more carries in a game this season he’s always put up more than 80 yards. No surprise all of those performances came in wins as well. Take him for a TD and 80 yards tonight and count on the lead back to come through in the win.
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