Top 3 NFL Games to Bet on Today: Bills, Lions and Broncos Lead the Week 8 Picks

Sunday’s NFL schedule features three matchups where I like the home team against the spread. My selections for November 1 are Bills -3 against the Ravens, Lions -3.5 against the Vikings, and Broncos +1.5 against the Chiefs. Buffalo returns from its bye to face a Baltimore team welcoming back Lamar Jackson. Detroit gets an opportunity to challenge unbeaten Minnesota at Ford Field. Denver hosts Kansas City in a rematch that gives the Broncos a chance to show how much they have improved since the season opener. These predictions use your supplied spreads. Buffalo must win by at least four to cover, with a three-point victory resulting in a push. Detroit needs a victory by four or more, while Denver can cover with an outright win or a one-point loss.

1. Buffalo Bills -3 Over the Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo is my strongest selection because Josh Allen and the offense enter this matchup rested, at home, and facing a Baltimore defense with problems to correct. The Bills are 5–1 coming out of their bye, while the Ravens are 4–3 following consecutive losses. Baltimore’s own preview highlights the defensive concern: the Ravens surrendered 35 second-half points to Cincinnati last week. It also identifies poor tackling as an issue against a Buffalo offense featuring Allen and James Cook. That matters because Buffalo can punish missed tackles in different ways. Cook can turn a modest opening into a first down, while Allen can extend a possession when the initial passing concept breaks down. Baltimore needs to finish plays rather than simply reach the ball carrier. My expectation is that Buffalo will use its balance to make those tackling problems costly. The Bills should stay patient with the run, take available completions, and force the Ravens to defend sustained possessions. Jackson’s return significantly raises the difficulty. Baltimore confirmed he is set to play after missing three games with an ankle injury. Buffalo must prepare for his full range of threats rather than assume his absence guarantees rust. The Bills also have injury questions. D.J. Moore, Dalton Kincaid, and Spencer Brown were among those listed as questionable Friday. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver, however, has no injury designation and is expected to return. My case still rests on Buffalo’s ability to sustain offense and finish drives. The Bills cannot afford turnovers that give Jackson short fields, and field goals alone may not create enough separation. At -3, a three-point victory returns the stake under standard spread rules. I expect Buffalo to do better, with Allen delivering the decisive second-half possession. The pick: Bills -3 Predicted score: Bills 31, Ravens 24

2. Detroit Lions -3.5 Over the Minnesota Vikings

Detroit faces the most demanding assignment on this card. Minnesota enters at 6–0, while the Lions are 4–2. The Vikings have earned respect through their defense, and backing Detroit requires a specific reason to believe the Lions can handle that pressure. My reason is Jared Goff’s ability to operate within a prepared passing game. Detroit needs answers before the snap, clear protection calls, and immediate outlets when Minnesota brings extra rushers. Holding the ball and hoping a deep route opens would invite trouble. There is encouraging evidence. A preview citing Next Gen Stats notes Goff completed 15 of 19 passes for 162 yards and three touchdowns against rushes featuring at least six defenders this season, taking one sack. That is a small sample, but it supports confidence that Detroit has workable answers. Amon-Ra St. Brown can provide a dependable target, and Jahmyr Gibbs gives the offense another way to punish defenders who commit too aggressively. My expectation is that the Lions will combine quick throws with enough rushing production to keep Goff out of repeated long-yardage situations. Detroit does not need to abandon its offense simply because Minnesota disguises pressure effectively. The other half of this prediction is Detroit generating stops. The Lions need to tackle underneath completions, limit yards after the catch, and make Minnesota sustain drives rather than benefit from short fields or defensive scores. The biggest risk is obvious: this spread requires more than a field-goal win against an undefeated opponent. A tight finish could produce a Detroit victory and still leave this pick short. I expect the Lions to create a little more separation. Their offensive options give them a chance to make Minnesota defend repeated scoring threats, and I favor Detroit to finish the game with the ball and a touchdown advantage. The pick: Lions -3.5 Predicted score: Lions 27, Vikings 20

3. Denver Broncos +1.5 Over the Kansas City Chiefs

Denver is my preferred underdog because its defensive improvement gives it a credible chance to win at home. Kansas City scored 31 points against the Broncos in Week 1, but the more recent defensive performance deserves greater weight. The Chiefs’ own preview notes Denver has allowed just 18.3 points per game since Week 2. It also credits the Broncos with 21 sacks, including a pass rush led by Nik Bonitto, who generated 13 pressures against Arizona last week. That pressure provides a path to making Patrick Mahomes uncomfortable without constantly committing extra defenders. Denver still must maintain rush discipline. Forcing Mahomes to move is useful only if he cannot escape and find an uncovered receiver. Patrick Surtain II’s availability strengthens that approach. He practiced fully all three days and has no game designation after recovering from an ankle injury. There are meaningful concerns elsewhere. Zach Allen, Garett Bolles, Brandon Jones, and Jaylen Waddle were listed as questionable, while RJ Harvey and Talanoa Hufanga were ruled out. Bo Nix and the offense therefore need an efficient performance. Denver cannot repeatedly waste favorable field position or ask its defense to survive short fields. Sean Payton should prioritize manageable downs and avoid unnecessary risks. The +1.5 offers limited protection, so this is primarily a prediction that Denver wins outright. I expect the Broncos’ defense and home crowd to keep the game close enough for one late scoring drive to decide it. The pick: Broncos +1.5 Predicted score: Broncos 23, Chiefs 20

Today’s Final Betting Card

My Week 8 selections are Bills -3, Lions -3.5, and Broncos +1.5. Buffalo is my strongest play, Detroit is my choice to hand Minnesota its first loss, and Denver completes the card as a home underdog capable of winning outright.