Top 3 NFL Games to Bet on in Week 6: Jaguars, Falcons and Ravens Lead the Picks

Week 6 gives us two short favorites and a home underdog worth backing. My three selections for Sunday, October 18, are Jaguars -2 against the Texans, Falcons +1.5 against the Bears, and Ravens -3.5 against the Browns. Jacksonville opens the day in London with an opportunity to strengthen its AFC South lead. Atlanta returns home looking to finish the job after an overtime loss to Baltimore. The Ravens face a divisional road test against a Cleveland offense that has struggled to generate consistent production. These picks use the exact spreads supplied for this article. Jacksonville needs to win by at least three to cover, Atlanta can cover with a win or a one-point loss, and Baltimore needs a victory by four or more.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars -2 Over the Houston Texans

Jacksonville is my strongest selection because this number asks the Jaguars to win by a field goal. That is a reasonable margin to target for a 4–1 team facing a 1–4 divisional opponent, although Houston’s pass rush makes this more complicated than the records suggest. The Jaguars enter after a 19–17 victory over Philadelphia in London. They remain in England for Sunday’s game at Wembley, giving them continuity in their preparation while Houston makes the overseas trip. I see that continuity as a modest advantage. Jacksonville has already worked through the travel adjustment and played a competitive game in the same city. It still must execute, but its preparation does not begin with a transatlantic flight. Houston will be without running back David Montgomery, receiver Tank Dell, and safety Jalen Pitre. The Texans confirmed all three would not travel to London. Those absences reduce their available options on both sides of the ball. Jacksonville has a significant injury of its own. Left tackle Anton Harrison is unavailable, with veteran Walker Little stepping into the starting role. Houston’s Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter make protecting Trevor Lawrence the central challenge of this pick. My expectation is that Jacksonville will emphasize productive early downs rather than expose Lawrence to repeated obvious passing situations. A credible running game, quick completions, and disciplined protection can prevent Houston’s edge rushers from controlling possessions. The Jaguars also need cleaner execution near the goal line. Their team analysis highlighted missed opportunities and penalties against Philadelphia. Leaving points behind again would give Houston a route to turning this into a late-possession game. I expect a competitive afternoon, but Jacksonville has a clear path to covering without needing a blowout. Finish drives, avoid damaging sacks, and make Houston sustain its offense. At -2, a field-goal victory is enough. The pick: Jaguars -2 Predicted score: Jaguars 24, Texans 20

2. Atlanta Falcons +1.5 Over the Chicago Bears

Atlanta is my preferred underdog because its recent offensive improvement gives it a credible chance to win outright at home. The Falcons are 2–3, while Chicago enters at 3–2, but those records do not fully describe the current matchup. Michael Penix Jr. is expected to start if his recovery proceeds without setbacks. He practiced fully Wednesday after suffering a rib injury against Baltimore. His availability matters because Atlanta’s offense has looked substantially more dangerous since his return. The Falcons averaged more than 34 points across the three games following Penix’s season debut. They also enter with 834 rushing yards, second only to Chicago’s 866. That balance gives Atlanta multiple ways to move the ball. Bijan Robinson is central to my prediction. Atlanta should use his running and receiving ability to make Chicago defend the entire field. Consistent early-down gains would help Penix avoid situations requiring him to hold the ball while dealing with sore ribs. The Bears deserve respect for their own running game and Ben Johnson’s offensive design. However, their quarterback situation remains unsettled. Caleb Williams returned to full practice Thursday but still needed medical clearance after the hamstring injury that sidelined him. A Williams return would improve Chicago’s options, but it would not automatically guarantee immediate sharpness. If a backup starts, Atlanta must still defend the structure of Johnson’s offense rather than assume the game becomes easy. Chicago is coming off a 31–7 loss to Green Bay in which its backup quarterbacks combined for three interceptions. Atlanta lost 30–23 in overtime to Baltimore after surrendering a late lead. Both teams have corrections to make. My expectation is that Atlanta’s offensive balance will create enough scoring opportunities to decide a close game. The Falcons need to protect the ball and finish drives rather than allow another promising performance to slip away late. The +1.5 offers limited protection, so this is primarily a prediction that Atlanta wins. I like the Falcons to make the decisive fourth-quarter play. The pick: Falcons +1.5 Predicted score: Falcons 27, Bears 24

3. Baltimore Ravens -3.5 Over the Cleveland Browns

Baltimore’s appeal starts with Cleveland’s offensive limitations. The Browns rank 29th in total offense at 273.6 yards per game and are tied for 27th in scoring at 18.6 points. They managed 198 yards in last week’s 17–12 loss to the Jets. Those struggles give Baltimore a path to controlling the game through defense, field position, and its running attack. The Ravens do not necessarily need an explosive passing performance to establish a covering margin. Lamar Jackson’s ankle injury remains the biggest uncertainty. He did not practice Thursday, and his availability was unresolved. Tyler Huntley would be in line for another start if Jackson cannot play. Huntley demonstrated last week that Baltimore can function with him. Against Atlanta, he completed 24 of 32 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns, then scored the winning touchdown in overtime. Derrick Henry added 102 rushing yards. My expectation is that Baltimore will make Henry the foundation of its approach, particularly if Huntley starts. Staying ahead of the chains would reduce the need for difficult throws and keep Cleveland from attacking predictable passing situations. The risk is a low-scoring divisional game that finishes with a three-point margin. At -3.5, that would be a losing ticket. Baltimore must turn territorial advantages into touchdowns rather than repeatedly settle for field goals. I favor the Ravens to create enough separation, with their defense forcing Cleveland into too many empty possessions. The pick: Ravens -3.5 Predicted score: Ravens 24, Browns 17

This Week’s Final Betting Card

My Week 6 selections are Jaguars -2, Falcons +1.5, and Ravens -3.5. Jacksonville is my strongest play, Atlanta is my preferred underdog, and Baltimore’s matchup against Cleveland’s struggling offense completes the card.