Patriots at Jaguars Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2.5-point home favorites against the New England Patriots, with FanDuel listing Jacksonville at -156 and the total at 45.5. The main NFL Picks angle is Jacksonville at home, where Trevor Lawrence has 434 passing yards and 4 touchdowns against 1 interception through two games.
New England is 1-1 after a 20-3 win over Pittsburgh, while Jacksonville is 1-1 after a 13-20 loss at Denver. The Patriots average 15 points per game against 23.5 for Jacksonville, and New England has a -3 turnover differential compared with Jacksonville's +2.
Patriots vs Jaguars Game Preview
Both teams are 1-1, but their early offensive numbers point in different directions. Drake Maye has 386 passing yards with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions, while Lawrence has 434 yards with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception. Jacksonville also averages 314 yards per game compared with 302 for New England, giving the Jaguars the cleaner early profile for NFL predictions.
The injury report shows several changes for New England. Mike Onwenu is on injured reserve, while Carlton Davis III and Dametrious Crownover are out and Ben Brown and Dre'Mont Jones are questionable. Jacksonville lists DaVon Hamilton as questionable, while Brian Thomas Jr. and Foye Oluokun are available. The Patriots travel after a Week 2 home win, while Jacksonville returns home after Denver. The game is outdoors, with a forecast of 81-84°F, partly sunny skies and southwest winds at 4 mph.
Patriots vs Jaguars Moneyline Pick
Take the Jaguars moneyline at -156. Jacksonville has a +2 turnover differential through two games, while New England sits at -3, and Lawrence has thrown 4 touchdowns against only 1 interception compared with Maye's 1 touchdown and 4 picks.
The price is fair for a short home favorite because Jacksonville averages 23.5 points and has 2 defensive interceptions. Bettors comparing prices across the best NFL betting sites should focus on whether Jacksonville remains below -160.
Pick: Jaguars ML (-156 at FanDuel).
Against the Spread Pick
Take the Jaguars -2.5 at -122. The number is just below the key number of 3, so the half-point matters in a game projected to stay within one score.
Jacksonville won its only home game 34-10 over Cleveland, while New England's two results have produced a 10-13 loss and a 20-3 win. Jacksonville has 5 sacks and New England has 6, giving both defenses a path to create negative plays and keep the final margin tight. That makes the home side the margin play in the Statistical analysis of NFL teams.
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Patriots vs Jaguars Game Total Pick
Take the Under 45.5 at -115. New England averages 15 points per game, and its first two games produced totals of 23 and 23 points. Jacksonville has scored 34 and 13, but its Week 2 game finished with only 33 combined points.
The defenses also bring early turnover production. New England has 6 sacks, Jacksonville has 5, and the Jaguars have 2 interceptions. With light 4 mph winds and a 45.5-point number, the Under has room if New England again struggles to reach 20 points. That supports the NFL predictions case and gives bettors another reason to keep the total below the market number.
How to Watch Patriots vs Jaguars and Game Info
- Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
- Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- New England Patriots starting quarterback: Drake Maye (TBD, 386 yards, 1-4).
- Jacksonville Jaguars starting quarterback: Trevor Lawrence (TBD, 434 yards, 4-1).
- Weather forecast: 81-84°F, partly sunny, southwest wind at 4 mph.
Final Takeaways
Jacksonville is the main side because the Jaguars have the better turnover margin, stronger quarterback production and a 23.5-point scoring average. The NFL Picks play is Jaguars moneyline at -156, while the spread play is Jaguars -2.5 at -122. The total play is Under 45.5 at -115, with New England's 15-point scoring average driving the low-scoring case. These are the core Statistical analysis of NFL teams and expert betting tips for NFL games for this matchup, with price discipline still important.
All odds as of 2:11 a.m. ET on September 23, 2026. Odds sourced from FanDuel. Check the latest odds and line movement for Patriots vs Jaguars at betting.net before placing your bets.