Packers Vs Patriots: Betting Picks and Odds for NFL Week 9 Matchup
David Genge Published 06/11/2026
The New England Patriots are 3-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers in their Week 9 matchup at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, November 8. DraftKings lists New England at -166 on the moneyline, while the game total sits at 46.5 points. Strong afternoon wind gusts could limit both passing attacks and make field goals more difficult.
The Patriots enter this matchup with a statistical advantage in total offense, averaging 367.3 yards per game compared with Green Bay's 331.6. However, both defenses have recorded 22 sacks, making quarterback pressure another important factor in these NFL predictions. The Under 46.5 stands out as the strongest betting angle, particularly with several offensive starters dealing with injuries.
Packers vs Patriots Game Preview
The Patriots average 23 points and 367.3 yards per game, while the Packers produce 21.4 points and 331.6 yards. Jordan Love has thrown for 2,246 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions for Green Bay. Drake Maye has recorded 1,983 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions for New England, completing 67.1% of his passes.
Both teams have 22 sacks, ranking sixth. Green Bay also has 10 interceptions and a +4 turnover differential, compared with New England's five interceptions and -7 mark. The Packers will miss Zaire Franklin, Travis Glover and Sean Rhyan, while Christian Watson is questionable. New England's Marcus Bryant is out, with A.J. Brown, Hunter Henry and TreVeyon Henderson also dealing with injuries. Breezy conditions are expected, but the earlier rain threat should clear before kickoff.
Packers vs Patriots Moneyline Pick
Take the New England Patriots moneyline at -166 (US$166 to win US$100). New England has a stronger offensive production rate, averaging 367.3 yards per game against Green Bay's 331.6. Maye's 67.1% completion rate also gives the Patriots a reliable passing option, provided their receiving group is healthy enough to support him.
The Patriots have a projected 61.1% win probability compared with Green Bay's 38.9%. That makes New England the logical moneyline choice, although the US$166 risk to win US$100 is not a bargain price. Bettors comparing NFL Picks should consider the Packers' defensive numbers, particularly their 10 interceptions and +4 turnover differential. These figures make Green Bay a dangerous opponent despite its underdog status.
Pick: Patriots ML (-166 at DraftKings).
Against the Spread Pick
Take the Green Bay Packers +3 at -105. The Packers have enough defensive production to keep this matchup close, especially with 22 sacks and 10 interceptions through the supplied statistics. Their +4 turnover differential also gives them an advantage over New England, which has a -7 mark.
The spread sits directly on the key number of three, making the full point particularly important. A Patriots victory by exactly three points would result in a push, while a Packers loss by two or fewer would cash the underdog ticket. Green Bay's defensive numbers support a close contest rather than a comfortable New England victory. This is an important distinction when evaluating NFL predictions because winning the game and covering the spread are separate outcomes.
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Pick: Packers +3 (-105 at DraftKings).
Packers vs Patriots Game Total Pick
Take the Under 46.5 at -110. Both teams average fewer than 24 points per game, with Green Bay producing 21.4 and New England scoring 23. Their combined average is 44.4 points, already below the posted total.
Strong winds could affect deep passes, punts and field goals, even if the earlier rain clears. Both defenses have 22 sacks, supporting the Under. This statistical analysis of NFL teams favors a lower-scoring game, especially with key Patriots offensive players questionable.
Pick: Under 46.5 (-110 at DraftKings).
How to Watch Packers vs Patriots and Game Info
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts.
- Date: Sunday, November 8, 2026
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Green Bay Packers starting quarterback: Jordan Love (TBD, 2,246 yards, 16-6 TD-INT).
- New England Patriots starting quarterback: Drake Maye (TBD, 1,983 yards, 15-8 TD-INT).
- Weather forecast: Breezy conditions with possible wind gusts. Earlier rain is expected to clear before kickoff.
Final Takeaways
The Patriots have the stronger offensive numbers, but Green Bay's defensive production and turnover advantage make the three-point spread difficult to ignore. These NFL Picks favor New England to win at -166, the Packers to cover +3, and the Under 46.5 at DraftKings. The combination of offensive injuries, 22 sacks from each defense and expected wind gusts gives the Under the strongest statistical case. Bettors reviewing NFL predictions should prioritize the total while recognizing Green Bay's ability to keep the score close.
Check the latest odds and line movement for Packers vs Patriots at betting.net before placing your bets. All odds as of 1:44 a.m. ET on November 6, 2026. Odds sourced from DraftKings.