Falcons at Saints Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
David Genge Published 05/10/2026
Atlanta is the betting side in Monday night's NFC South matchup, with the Falcons priced at +110 on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook. The line has moved from Saints -2.5 to -1.5, while Atlanta enters with Michael Penix Jr. back under center after a 35-14 win over Green Bay. These NFL Picks favor Atlanta across the main markets.
The Saints are dealing with major defensive absences, including Kaden Elliss, Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings. That injury list matters against a Falcons offense that produced 35 points in Penix's return and featured 194-yard games from both Drake London and Bijan Robinson. The latest NFL predictions also point toward Atlanta as the stronger side.
Falcons vs Saints Game Preview
Both teams are 1-2, but New Orleans averages 27.0 points and 382.7 yards, compared with Atlanta's 17.0 points and 340.7 yards. Tyler Shough has 917 yards, 8 TDs and 3 INTs at 68.9%, while Michael Penix Jr. has 256 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT at 72%.
The injury edge favors Atlanta. New Orleans has three defenders out, with Pete Werner and Noah Fant questionable, plus Kelvin Banks Jr. on the sideline. Atlanta has Divine
Falcons vs Saints Moneyline Pick
Take the Atlanta Falcons ML at +110. Penix gives Atlanta a major upgrade at quarterback, and the Falcons scored five touchdowns in his return after producing only one touchdown across their first two games. London also posted 194 receiving yards against Green Bay, while Robinson delivered 213 total yards and 2 touchdowns in the same game.
The price is fair for a road underdog because New Orleans has shown serious turnover problems. Shough lost two fumbles and threw an interception in the Saints' 35-27 loss to Las Vegas, and New Orleans has a -4 turnover differential compared with Atlanta's -6. The Saints are favored at home, but +110 gives Atlanta enough upside to back the better quarterback situation.
These NFL Picks favor Atlanta ML because of Penix's return, the Saints' defensive injuries and the Falcons' recent offensive production.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons ML (+110 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
Against the Spread Pick
Take Atlanta Falcons +1.5. The spread is important because New Orleans moved from a 2.5-point favorite to 1.5 points, pushing the game away from the key number of 3. Atlanta also has a recent road win by 21 points, while New Orleans lost its last game by 8 points after leading 27-22.
Atlanta's edge is its ability to stay within one score. The Falcons rank second in time of possession at 32:53 and average 4.99 yards per rush, while New Orleans allows 27.7 points per game. The +1.5 also covers a one-point Atlanta loss. The Statistical analysis of NFL teams favors Atlanta through its possession and rushing advantages.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons +1.5 (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
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Falcons vs Saints Game Total Pick
Take Over 47.5. New Orleans is averaging 27.0 points and 382.7 yards per game, while Atlanta's defense is allowing 22.7 points per game and its offense just scored 35 points with Penix back in the lineup. The Saints have also allowed 6 passing touchdowns through three games.
The indoor setting removes weather concerns. Shough has 917 passing yards and 8 TDs, while Drake London and Chris Olave have 649 combined receiving yards, supporting the Over 47.5. Statistical analysis of NFL teams also favors the Over, with New Orleans averaging 27.0 points and both teams showing strong passing production.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
How to Watch Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints and Game Info
- Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana.
- Date: Monday, October 5, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Atlanta Falcons starting quarterback: Michael Penix Jr. (TBD, 256 yards, 1-1).
- New Orleans Saints starting quarterback: Tyler Shough (TBD, 917 yards, 8-3).
- Weather forecast: Indoors, no weather factor.
Final Takeaways
Atlanta is the best side in these NFL predictions. The NFL Picks are Atlanta ML at +110, Atlanta +1.5, and Over 47.5. The Statistical analysis also points to a close game, with Atlanta's possession numbers and New Orleans' 27.7 points allowed per game supporting a competitive, high-scoring finish. These factors reinforce the NFL predictions for Atlanta to stay within the spread while the total goes Over.
All odds as of 12:35 a.m. ET on October 5, 2026. Odds sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. Check the latest odds and line movement for Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints at betting.net before placing your bets.