Dolphins at Raiders Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
The Las Vegas Raiders are the side in a matchup priced for a close game, with the home team sitting at -3.5 and the total at 40.5. Kirk Cousins gives Las Vegas the more established quarterback option, while Miami is turning to Malik Willis in his first start for the Dolphins.
The low total sets the tone for this game. The best NFL predictions point toward a tight score, with several projections landing between 36 and 43 combined points. That makes the Raiders moneyline and Under 40.5 the clearest angles for these NFL Picks.
Dolphins vs Raiders Game Preview
Both teams enter Week 1 with new coaching staffs, so there is no 2026 last-five record or ATS sample to use yet. Miami finished 7-10 in 2025, while Las Vegas has a more experienced quarterback in Cousins, who was named the starter ahead of No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. Willis brings mobility to Miami's offense, but Cousins has the edge in NFL starting experience.
The biggest lineup concerns center on both offenses. Raiders tight end Brock Bowers is dealing with a knee injury, while second-year running back Ashton Jeanty has returned to full practice after an ankle issue. Miami is also introducing rookie offensive lineman Kadyn Proctor into its starting group, adding another unknown to an offense built around Willis and running back De'Von Achane.
Dolphins vs Raiders Moneyline Pick
Take the Las Vegas Raiders moneyline at -190. Cousins gives Las Vegas a major experience advantage over Willis, and the Raiders are playing at Allegiant Stadium, where the controlled indoor environment removes the 98°F to 102°F outdoor Las Vegas heat from the equation.
The price is steep for a Week 1 favorite, but the matchup supports it. Miami is rebuilding its offense around Willis, while Las Vegas has a veteran quarterback and a home-field edge. Bettors comparing NFL Picks should also compare the price across the best NFL betting sites before placing a real-money wager.
Pick: Raiders ML (-190 at BetMGM).
Against the Spread Pick
Take the Miami Dolphins +3.5 at -110. The spread sits just above the key number of 3, giving Miami some protection in a game projected to be decided by one score.
The main spread angle is margin rather than the outright winner. Several score projections have this game landing within four points, including a 22-19 Raiders projection. With the total set at only 40.5, every field goal matters, and a late Dolphins score can create a backdoor cover even if Las Vegas controls most of the game.
The Trends in NFL team performance also favor taking the points in a low-total matchup because fewer possessions leave less room for a favorite to create separation. That makes +3.5 more attractive than laying the full number with Las Vegas.
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Dolphins vs Raiders Game Total Pick
Take the Under 40.5 at -105. The total is already low, but the quarterback uncertainty on both sides still points toward a controlled offensive game rather than a shootout.
Willis is making his first start for Miami, while Cousins is beginning his first season with Las Vegas. The Raiders are also without Bowers for the opener, removing a major piece from their passing attack. With indoor conditions eliminating wind and weather as a scoring factor, the Under is based on the offenses and the 40.5 number rather than the venue.
The strongest NFL predictions point to a close game with both teams scoring under 20 points. A 22-19 score would produce 41 points, making the Under 40.5 the play.
Pick: Under 40.5 (-105 at BetMGM).
How to Watch Dolphins vs Raiders and Game Info
- Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Miami Dolphins starting quarterback: Malik Willis.
- Las Vegas Raiders starting quarterback: Kirk Cousins.
- Weather forecast: Indoors, no weather factor.
Final Takeaways
The Raiders have the quarterback experience and home-field advantage to win, but 3.5 points is enough to make Miami the better spread side in a low-scoring game. The moneyline pick is Raiders ML at -190, while the spread pick is Dolphins +3.5 at -110. The total pick is Under 40.5 at -105, and those three bets form the core of these NFL Picks and the strongest Trends in NFL team performance angle for Week 1.
All odds as of 7:50 a.m. ET on September 11, 2026. Odds sourced from BetMGM. Check the latest odds and line movement for Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders at betting.net before placing your bets.