Colts at Commanders Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
Jesse M. Cox Published 29/09/2026
The Indianapolis Colts moneyline at -175 is the starting point for this matchup, with the Colts -3 at -118 and the total at 47 points at BetMGM. Washington enters London without Jayden Daniels, while Indianapolis has 7 sacks through three games and faces Marcus Mariota in his first international start.
The quarterback change gives Indianapolis a clear betting angle, but Washington still brings a 25-point-per-game offense and a +2 turnover differential. These NFL Picks focus on how those numbers affect the moneyline, spread and total rather than relying only on the headline injury.
Colts vs Commanders Game Preview
Indianapolis and Washington are both 1-2 after three games. Daniel Jones has completed 66.3% of his passes for 611 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, while Mariota has 294 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. The Colts average 24 points per game and 293.3 yards, while Washington averages 25 points and 314 yards.
Washington has the bigger injury concern at quarterback, with Daniels ruled out after his elbow injury and Mariota taking over. Sam Cosmi, Frankie Luvu, Nick Cross and Chig Okonkwo are also listed out, while Colts linebacker Leo Chenal is questionable. The game moves to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, with mild conditions expected around 69°F and winds near 6 mph.
Colts vs Commanders Moneyline Pick
Take the Indianapolis Colts moneyline at -175 at BetMGM. Jones has 611 passing yards and a 66.3% completion rate, while Indianapolis has produced 7 sacks compared with Washington's 5. The Colts also have Jonathan Taylor, who has 258 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns through three games.
The -175 price requires a stronger win probability than a short favorite, but Washington's quarterback change remains the central matchup factor. Mariota has thrown 4 touchdowns without an interception, yet he has only 294 passing yards, while Daniels is unavailable. These NFL predictions give Indianapolis the moneyline edge because its defense has a clearer path to controlling the game.
Pick: Colts ML (-175 at BetMGM).
Against the Spread Pick
Take Colts -3 at -118 at BetMGM. The number sits on the key NFL field-goal line, so a three-point Indianapolis win would produce a push rather than a cover. That makes the exact margin important, especially with both teams entering at 1-2.
Indianapolis has won its last game 19-17 after losing 33-30 and 41-23, while Washington's first win came in a 33-31 game. The Colts also have a 30:57 average time of possession compared with Washington's 32:05, so this matchup has enough evidence for a close fourth quarter. Still, Washington has lost four starters listed in the supplied injury data, including Cosmi and Luvu, which gives Indianapolis a better chance to create separation late.
Pick: Colts -3 (-118 at BetMGM).
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Colts vs Commanders Game Total Pick
Take the Under 47 at -110 at BetMGM. Washington averages 25 points and Indianapolis averages 24, but the Colts have produced only 293.3 yards per game while Washington enters with a backup quarterback starting in place of Daniels.
Indianapolis has 7 defensive sacks and Washington has only 5, creating pressure opportunities that can shorten drives. The weather also presents little resistance to offense, with temperatures around 69°F and winds near 6 mph, so the Under depends on defensive pressure and Washington's reduced quarterback continuity rather than weather. The recent head-to-head Over trend is 3-2 across the last five meetings, while the Commanders are 8-2 to the Over in their last 10, making this a clear case where the current matchup matters more than the broad trend.
Pick: Under 47 (-110 at BetMGM).
How to Watch Colts vs Commanders and Game Info
- Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England.
- Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. ET
- TV: NFL Network
- Indianapolis Colts starting quarterback: Daniel Jones (TBD, 611 yards, 3-3).
- Washington Commanders starting quarterback: Marcus Mariota (TBD, 294 yards, 4-0).
- Weather forecast: 69°F, sunny intervals, wind out of the east at 6 mph.
Final Takeaways
The central angle is Washington's quarterback change, with Mariota replacing an injured Daniels against a Colts defense that already has 7 sacks. The NFL Picks are Colts ML at -175, Colts -3 at -118, and Under 47 at -110, with all prices from BetMGM. The NFL predictions favor Indianapolis because of the quarterback matchup, while the Statistical analysis of NFL teams points to a game decided by pressure and field position.
All odds as of 6:12 PM ET on September 28, 2026. Odds sourced from BetMGM. Check the latest odds and line movement for Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders at betting.net before placing your bets.
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