Buccaneers at Cowboys Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
David Genge Published 06/10/2026
The Dallas Cowboys -9.5 are the clear betting side against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. FanDuel opened Dallas at -9.5 with a -550 moneyline, while Tampa Bay was +410. The biggest matchup edge is at quarterback, with Dak Prescott carrying 1,065 passing yards and an 8-1 TD-INT mark compared with rookie Jalon Daniels' 148 yards and 1-3 mark.
The Cowboys also rank second in the NFL at 30.5 points per game, while Tampa Bay averages only 19.0. These NFL Picks lean toward Dallas winning, but the 9.5-point spread demands a closer look because Tampa Bay has a mobile rookie quarterback and Dallas has allowed 150.3 rushing yards per game.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Game Preview
Tampa Bay enters at 0-4 after a 17-14 loss to Green Bay, while Dallas is 2-2 after beating Houston 34-30. The Buccaneers are also 0-4 against the spread, while Dallas is 3-1 ATS. Daniels has completed 63.3% of his passes for 148 yards, 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions, while Prescott has completed 70% for 1,065 yards, 8 touchdowns and 1 interception.
Baker Mayfield is officially out with a dislocated right thumb, forcing Daniels into his second straight start. Tampa Bay also loses safety Antoine Winfield Jr. to a rib fracture, while Dallas has opened Tyler Smith's 21-day practice window after thumb surgery. Both teams are playing on a short week, but Dallas gets the benefit of staying home at AT&T Stadium, where the retractable roof removes weather concerns.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Moneyline Pick
Take the Dallas Cowboys moneyline at -550 with FanDuel. Prescott has produced 1,065 passing yards, 8 touchdowns and only 1 interception through four games, giving Dallas a major advantage over Daniels, whose passer rating is 46.9 through his first two appearances.
The price is steep, but Tampa Bay's offense has scored only 19.0 points per game and lost Mayfield to injury. Dallas has scored 30.5 points per game, and CeeDee Lamb already has 498 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. That gap makes the Cowboys the strongest of these NFL predictions.
Pick: Cowboys ML (-550 at FanDuel).
Against the Spread Pick
Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 at FanDuel. The 9.5-point number gives Tampa Bay room against a Dallas defense allowing 28.0 points and 150.3 rushing yards per game. Daniels has also averaged 7.1 yards per carry on nine rushing attempts, giving the Buccaneers a way to extend drives when Dallas pressures him.
Dallas has won only two games this season, and both victories were decided by four points or fewer. The Cowboys also have just 4 sacks through four games, ranked 28th, which limits their ability to turn a rookie quarterback's mistakes into a blowout. The Trends in NFL team performance point toward Dallas winning, but Tampa Bay staying inside a two-score margin is the better spread position.
Pick: Buccaneers +9.5 at FanDuel.
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Buccaneers vs Cowboys Game Total Pick
Take the Under 46.5 at FanDuel. Tampa Bay averages only 19.0 points per game and has totaled 763 passing yards through four games, while Daniels has thrown 3 interceptions in limited action. Dallas averages 30.5 points, but its defense has also forced zero interceptions this season.
The short week adds another reason to expect a slower offensive game from Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have been held to 14 points or fewer in two of their four games, while Dallas has allowed 28.0 points per game. With the total sitting at 46.5, a 27-17 Dallas win would stay below the number.
Pick: Under 46.5 at FanDuel.
How to Watch Buccaneers vs Cowboys and Game Info
- Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
- Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers starting quarterback: Jalon Daniels (0-1, 148 yards, 1-3).
- Dallas Cowboys starting quarterback: Dak Prescott (2-2, 1,065 yards, 8-1).
- Weather forecast: Indoors, no weather factor.
Final Takeaways
Dallas has the stronger quarterback, the better scoring offense and the home-field advantage, but 9.5 points is enough to make the spread a different bet from the moneyline. The NFL Picks are Cowboys moneyline, Buccaneers +9.5 and Under 46.5. The Trends in NFL team performance support a Dallas win, while Tampa Bay's rushing threat and Dallas' weak sack production make a close enough game for the Buccaneers to cover.
All odds as of 8:15 p.m. ET on October 6, 2026. Odds sourced from FanDuel. Check the latest odds and line movement for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys at betting.net before placing your bets.