Bears at Packers Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
David Genge Published 10/10/2026
The Chicago Bears visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday in a Week 5 NFC North matchup. Our NFL Picks favor Chicago on the moneyline, with its league-leading 429 yards per game giving it an advantage over a Green Bay offense averaging 307.3 yards.
The quarterback situation remains important, with Tyson Bagent expected to start for Chicago while Caleb Williams works through a hamstring injury. These NFL predictions also consider both teams' scoring averages, injury concerns and the supplied betting lines.
Bears vs Packers Game Preview
Chicago enters Week 5 with a 3-1 record after beating the New York Jets 23-12. The Bears average 28 points per game, ranking eighth, and lead the league with 429 yards per game. Their average possession time of 36 minutes and 35 seconds also ranks first, making their ability to control the clock a key part of the statistical analysis of NFL teams.
Green Bay sits at 2-2 and averages 18.2 points per game, ranking 28th, alongside 307.3 yards per game. Jordan Love has thrown for 1,041 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions. Chicago's Tyson Bagent completed 25 of 34 passes for 268 yards and one interception against the Jets. Kyle Monangai has been ruled out, while Williams is listed as questionable. Packers guards Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk are doubtful. These absences could affect how both offenses perform.
Bears vs Packers Moneyline Pick
The Bears are the preferred side in these NFL Picks because their offense has produced 121.7 more yards per game than Green Bay's. Chicago also averages 9.8 more points per game, a substantial gap between teams with different offensive output. The supplied projection has Chicago winning 23-21, which supports the moneyline selection without requiring a large margin.
Green Bay's defense has recorded 10 sacks and four interceptions, so Love can still make this competitive. However, the Packers' 26 minutes and 46 seconds of average possession time ranks 31st. If Chicago maintains its usual control of the ball, Green Bay may have fewer chances to build a lead. This statistical analysis of NFL teams supports backing Chicago to win, although Bagent's performance remains a key variable.
Pick: Chicago Bears to win (-123).
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Against the Spread Pick
Chicago must win by at least two points to cover the 1.5-point spread. The Bears' first-ranked possession time of 36:35 compared with Green Bay's 26:46 gives them a route to control the game's pace and limit the Packers' opportunities. That matters more for the spread than simply predicting which team wins.
Chicago will miss Monangai, who rushed for 146 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets. Swift is available after returning to full practice, but expert betting tips for NFL games should account for Monangai's absence. Chicago can still cover the narrow spread with a close win.
Pick: Chicago Bears -1.5 (-110).
Bears vs Packers Game Total Pick
The NFL Picks lean toward the under at 45.5 points. Green Bay averages just 18.2 points per game, while the supplied projection of a 23-21 Chicago win produces 44 total points. That projected total sits 1.5 points below the betting line.
The teams' combined scoring average is 46.2 points, which is slightly above the line, so the under is not without risk. Chicago's 28-point average could push the game over if its offense stays productive, but Green Bay's scoring struggles and Chicago's ability to hold possession support a lower-scoring outcome. These expert betting tips for NFL games point to the under as a lean, not a certainty.
Pick: Under 45.5 points (-110).
How to Watch Bears vs Packers and Game Info
- Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
- Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET / 12:00 p.m. CDT
- TV: FOX
- Chicago Bears starting quarterback: Tyson Bagent (starter record: TBD, passing yards: 268 in his most recent start).
- Green Bay Packers starting quarterback: Jordan Love (starter record: TBD, passing yards: 1,041, TD-INT: 8-3).
- Weather forecast: 68°F and clear; 4% chance of rain, wind details TBD.
Final Takeaways
The strongest NFL Picks from this matchup are Chicago on the moneyline, Chicago -1.5 and Under 45.5. The Bears' 429 yards per game and 28 points per game give them the statistical edge, while Green Bay's 18.2-point scoring average supports a lower total. Still, Bagent's starting role and Monangai's absence introduce uncertainty, so review the final injury news before placing a wager.
All odds as of 2:57 a.m. ET on October 10, 2026. Check the latest odds and line movement for Bears vs Packers at betting.net before placing your bets.