College football season starts in two months, and sportsbooks are already taking bets on regular-season win totals. Circa Sports posted Power Five win totals on June 10. Sharp bets and Circa sportsbook director Matt Metcalf have caused 11 line adjustments of a half-win or more.
Metcalf said that 90% of the money comes from “sharps” taking advantage of some of the biggest differences between some of the other books. Also, he knows from experience that the smart money doesn’t start coming in until a couple of weeks before the season starts.
He said, “Most of the half-win moves are me putting my opinion in looking for action. If I put up a number and nobody bets it, I see that as an opportunity to move it higher or lower.”
Alabama and Georgia both have 11½ wins, which is the most. Ohio State is next with 11 wins. Metcalf recently changed the odds that the Crimson Tide will win the national title from +195 to +165. The Bulldogs, who won last year, are +315 and the Buckeyes are +350. Georgia’s win total odds started out at -110 and changed to under-145.
Six teams lost a half-win: Arizona (from 3½ to 3), Boston College (from 7 to 6½), California (from 6 to 5½), Illinois (from 5 to 4½), Indiana (from 5 to 4½), and Iowa State (from 7½ to 7).
Metcalf said that he has a bias against Michigan State because when he was a professional gambler, the Spartans always beat him when he bet against them.
A lot of people will bet on N.C. State, which went 9-3 last season and will bring back quarterback Devin Leary, who set a school record by throwing 35 touchdown passes.
Last season, Nebraska went 3-9, and all of its losses were by less than 10 points. Then, last year, Purdue went 9-4 and is a 3-point underdog at home against Penn State in their season opener on September 1.
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